We didn't have a chance to pick Warriors' players the last two years as they missed the playoffs, but now they are in the Western Conference Finals and it is time to pick them. Miami Heat are now again in the Eastern Conference Finals after last year’s disappointing loss in the first round and we should also probably start picking them as the Conference Finals begin.
It was a little bit surprising to see Suns losing the 2nd round series after leading 2-0 and 3-2, but this is reality and now we have Mavs in WCF. Also Boston came back after trailing three times in the series and is now in ECF. That caused some fantasy troubles as probably everyone lost some Mavs’ players and many people lost at least one Celtics’ player…
So now it is time to Trust the stats. According to FiveThirtyEight both Mavs and Celtics are favorites to win their series - Boston has 67% chance and Dallas - 63% (it is the mean of two models). And for the past 12 series (8 in first round and 4 in second round), they were just wrong about the Suns-Mavs series as we all probably were.
It may be counterintuitive for most of us that Dallas is favorites, but even if Golden State wins the series, it’s probably not worth picking four Mavs’ players (my fourth best Mavs’ player is Powell or Bertans, so I’m not sure I’ll pick one of them unless I have to). That is why I recommend picking Warriors players, at least at the start of the series.
Moreover, it is even more enticing because the first two games of the series are played in Miami and San Francisco. We can say that probably for most players it is better to play at home than on the road, so picking Heat’s and Warriors’ players in the first two games of those series makes a lot of sense, especially considering how deep their teams are.
Hopefully we pick players when they play good games, I wish us all that. But we know, players are just people and they can have worse days in their job. So smile, even if your player had a tough night, you probably would have a better day than him ;)
Thanks for your time to read this post :) Feel
free to discuss in comments upcoming games, your picks and strategy. And whenever you read it, have a nice day!
I agree.
ReplyDeleteAlso…
Smart may not be playing G1. And so is Lowry. Whoever player benefits PRA-wise the most with their absence should be picked regardless of who will win the series or not. Brown maybe? Herro too. It’s opportunity now versus potential later.
Yeah, with Lowry out, other Miami guards are going to have more time and shots. This is why I recommend Strus, Herro, Vincent and maybe even Oladipo ;)
DeleteDallas is not favored to beat GS.GS is plus 150 to win it all Dallas is plus 650 .GS is the favorite to win the title followed by Boston then Miami.sports.yahoo.com/nba/odds/ every site has Dallas the last seed.I will take from both sides starting with Bam then Dinwidee
ReplyDeleteAccording to FiveThirtyEight Mavs are favorites with 72% chance based on their RAPTOR player ratings and 53% with their Elo forecast. And as I wrote it is counterintuitive for most of us probably ;) but either way, we will probably pick some Warriors players, so we can start it now with their home games :)
Deletethey are not the betting favorite on any betting site Tonight they are 6.5 underdog and plus 650 to win series by far the last.Check any betting site not 1 has the m as a favorite
Delete538 whats that check ANY betting site 72 percent come on they are the underdog on any and ALL betting sites and have the least chance to win
DeleteBetting sites operate on a philosophy of profit. More people are betting on Golden State to win, as they are the higher seed and have a lot of name brand recognition. Putting Golden State as the favourite allows betting sites to maximize their chances of profit based on betting behaviour. 538 models are based upon their data science, and according to that Dallas has the better shot at winning. That being said, WCF could be anyone's game so it will be fun to follow along.
DeleteSuffice to say, the discrepancy between 538 and the betting sites say this is a good opportunity to put in an underdog bet on the Mavericks with a decent chance at profit.
Deletebetting sites make money on the vig.If u believe the model u should bet on Dallas But I still thkink Golden State is the favorite
DeleteFiveThirtyEight updated their prediction before Game 1, but Dallas was still favorites, but not that much as before (about 55%). I wrote it is counterintuitive as I expected Warriors to have 55% chance with home-court advantage ;) And now after Game 1 Warriors have over 60% chance to win the series
DeleteWarriors smokin em. Never thought the Mavs had much of a chance.
Deletevegasinsider.com/nba/nba-playoffs-series-odds-conference-finals/ check any betting site GS is the over whelming favorite They home team they have better record and EVERY single betting site has them a big favorite
ReplyDeleteExcellent write-up Maciej. I am thinking the same thing early in this series. I have Strus lined up for Game 1. I am rolling with Steph Curry in Google Drive and Andrew Wiggins in Fantasy Postseason with the round multiplier to consider. Would not have expected to see both the Celtics AND the Mavs as favourites on 538, so that I found super interesting. I had Celtics and Warriors winning. I hope, as a Mavs fan, that 538 is correct in their prediction ;)
ReplyDeleteWell, according to FiveThirtyEight Celtics were favorites to win the title even before playoffs started... despite the G1 loss, in 538 Celtics are still slight favorites to win the series ;)
DeleteI had the Suns as my favourite team for this playoffs, very disappointed in them. At least I was right about the other 3 finalists and I have all of their players available. Obviously picking Warriors in the WCF is the strategy for most of us. And try to guess right in the ECF, to have as many options as possible for the Finals. Smart missing G1 and Lowry not playing makes it easier to pick Heat guards for G1, even if they could advance. But they have a good depth and we could also have Lowry available later. So even if my guts tell me the Heat will advance, I will start with Strus (unless the Heat injury report is serious for the first time in months).
ReplyDeleteI missed choosing to pick Draymond as the first Warrior last year. Same reasoning as every other year, pick him before he kicks someone's balls
Yeah, Suns disappointed many people, but I think almost everyone lost all Suns ;)
DeleteEven if we pick winner of CF right, we have to remember that we can take players from both teams in Finals, so we don't need to have 6 Heat players - 3 is enough with 3 from Warriors if you believe in that match-up ;)
Yeah, but you have to spend Warriors in the conference finals. I guess I will pick Bullock at some point, but I don't really trust any other Mavs after having Luka, Brunson, Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith already picked. At least if the Warriors win in 4 or 5 we would still have someone from them available for the Finals, but if this goes to 6 or 7 we will spend most of them too
DeleteHmm... What to do if you are stuck in the bottom of the stands? Do something crazy.Like, play Duncan Robinson in g1 of the conference finals in the slim hope that he plays at all and kind of repeats his first game of this years playoffs (where he, you know, hit 8 threes, scored 27 pts in 22 mts, and followed that with 13 pts and 8 rbs, in the next 10 games combined, playing not a second in a whopping four of these matches).
ReplyDeleteWell, that didn´t quite work out as I hoped. Was worth a shot, and I still can pick him again later. At least in theory. I sincerely doubt it will come to that. I will try with Tucker and Adebayo in g2. Can´t be worse.
Nice try :) at least you are having fun ;) better luck next time with crazy picks and hopefully you will have even more fun :)
DeleteI should have paid more attention to these blogs 👀. Lots of good info. I need to bounce back.
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome :) and good luck in bouncing back ;)
Delete*Chris H.*
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ReplyDeletegoing with Robert Williams tonight Hope Horford comes back soon N Smart .Im 26 points out in my betting league Guy has most of the same guys left as me except I have Hero and he has Bam But I will save Heat guys for now.Bultler in my opinion is the best player in the play offs Guy knows how to lead and win My favorite player Not my favorite team But they play like a great team and Bulter leads by example.
ReplyDeleteButler is elite.
ReplyDeleteButler is the main reason why I think the Heat are favourite now. I always say I love Tatum, but Butler is maybe the most determinant player at both ends of the court. And he has a very good group around him.
ReplyDeleteI am going big with G2, Robert Williams today. And Looney tomorrow, hoping for a better rebounding effort by him for the next game
You get that huge Looney game in Game 2??
DeleteYep, and Horford also good on the next day. Surrounded by two red picks with R.Williams and Bullock. Ups and downs xD
DeleteMiami has become the "invisible team" (except for Jimmy Butler), this is bad!
ReplyDeleteStrus injured ends up with 13 PAR thanks to getting hurt.
ReplyDeleteswicthed to Horford who didnt have good game but better than Williams ..Wiggens tonight
ReplyDeleteWhat’s this news that Luka is ill? Fake news?
ReplyDeleteWiggins gonna go bonkers again then. Maybe.
HE be ill like Jordan was against jazz
DeleteWiggins has had an excellent series
DeleteTaong
DeleteYeah, GSW has this. Gotta minimise the minutes of Luka moving forward. Can’t afford injury. They’ve done better than expected already.
DeletePicked Bam in g2 (17), next game, he goes for 59. Heard Tucker and Lowry might be out, hoped again for Duncan Robinson to make an appearance after his good g2, got 3 in FP for my effort. I think I am the worst in the GD sheet from those still trying. How come I don´t have many good options left? For Dallas, I am down to the Wurzburg boys, Maxi Kleber and Dirk Nowitzki. Don´t know who will get me more points.
ReplyDeleteThree guarantees Death, Taxes and Bad scores on DTTFs!
ReplyDelete