So as expected, the Spurs carved out the Thunder's interior defense (if there was). Tony Parker relentlessly attacked the paint, and dished the ball to Tim Duncan for Mr. Fundamental's most imposing performance of the playoffs. So what happened to the Thunder's lineup?
Nick Collison was ineffective as the replacement in the starting lineup. He and Kendrick Perkins got more minutes, but at least Perk got some decent PRA for a DTTF filler. Steven Adams got less minutes and was ineffective as the sole bigman when the Thunder went small. Thabo Sefolosha was invisible. Tough Juice Caron Butler was his usual self. Reggie Jackson too. Derek Fisher was actually fantastic for someone who the Knicks are trying to push into retirement. Russell Westbrook struggled early in the first inning, but came back to usual form. Kevin Durant was his usual scoring machine even though he had to mix it up in the middle especially when they ran him as the five in a small ball lineup.
So after seeing what happened in Game 1, we are seeing additional pick options for the Thunder aside from KD and Westbrook. Perkins will continue to have bigger minutes, and his rebounds should carry his PRA near 15. I think Reggie Jackson should get more minutes now as they realize they have to do more small ball to offset their defensive deficiency, and is a good pick-up as Thunder's third best. Butler can consistently give you 15 PRA. Fisher is spotty but you can get lucky with him like what happened in Game 1. The rest of the Thunder, don't pick yet.
Of course if you are looking for a decent 20+ PRA, feel free to pick a Spur. Just keep in mind that avoiding a sub-20 PRA now doesn't mean you don't have to eventually do it in the Finals. The Finals may extend six or seven games and will easily exhaust star-level PRAs.
Duncan may never get near his Game 1 PRA as I expect Thunder to double-team him, but he'll still get above average PRA without Ibaka there. Parker must still be the prime choice if you intend to pick a Spur though.
For Game 2, my pick goes to Tim Duncan playing at home. Reggie Jackson will get my Game 3 playing at home. Perkins gets my Game 4, except if it's an elimination game -- then it's Fisher's. Butler will get any extra game. No other Spurs to be picked unless they go down X-3.
May the odds be ever in your favor.