Welcome to another edition of Guarantees in which I (do not)
guarantee playoffs things that can happen in first two Finals games. So far 42/97 Guarantees were correct and 2/4 from last
episode, so it is not bad lately ;) so over 40% of Guarantees are correct which better than Barkley's Guarantees this year (40%) and also Ben Simmons' FT shooting this playoffs (34%). Let's see if I can keep it up and what can be guaranteed for Game 1 and Game 2 of the NBA Finals.
Guarantee #99: Let's start NBA Finals! I guarantee first game of the NBA Finals will not disappoint and the difference between winner and loser in Game 1 will be smaller than 10 points (both of games in regular season finished with Suns' 1-point wins). [Not correct, Suns won by 13]
Guarantee #100: Building Bridges for Suns' win! I guarantee Mikal Bridges will have great game (I hope so as he is my pick), scoring at least 15 points in a Game 1 win for the Suns. [Not correct, he had 14]
Guarantee #101: Taking threes to next level! I guarantee Jrue Holiday will shoot better than 35% from three in Game 1 (he shot so far 29.9% from behind the arc this playoffs). [Not correct, he was 0/4 from three]
Guarantee #102: Playing like a champion! I guarantee Torrey Craig (who will surely get his ring as he played for Bucks earlier this season and now for the Suns) will score at least 5 points in Game 2 (his average in this playoffs is 4.4). [Correct, he had 6 points]
Guarantee #103: Great passing! I guarantee we will see at least 45 assists in Game 2. [Correct, there was 47 assists]
Guarantee #104: Big man duo! I guarantee Lopez and Portis will have at least 25 points and 12 rebounds combined in Game 2 (I don't know if Giannis come back for G2 or not, so it's more safe, but still those two can surprise either way). [Not correct]
Feel
free to discuss in comments your picks for the remaining
games, my guarantees, players and teams performances. And whenever you read it, have a great day!
I am not taking any risks now that we are in the Finals. After so many injuries this year, I will start picking my best remaining options, just in order of average PRA. Starting with Ayton and Paul for the first two games. Crowder and Bridges next for me
ReplyDeleteThis is nice simple tactic ;) I'm bounce-back believer and will pick players depending on previous performances. Plus I want to save CP3 for last game (or at least possibly last ;)) as I expect him to deliver nicely then with pressure to win this game.
DeleteMy strategy for the Finals.
ReplyDeletePick from the top 4 available (just in case of sweep). Order by feel.
Bring in more players into pick pool as series extends.
Root for the Suns.
Enjoy the Finals.
Nice :) I prefer to save CP3 for possibly last game, so if there is no sweep, I'll consider other players as well, but with no risk of losing top guys ;)
DeleteLet's have great Finals :D I'm also rooting for Suns, I feel like this team deserves to be NBA Champion :)
It wouldn't be me if Jrue Holiday shot well when I'm the only person to have him left..... 2/10
ReplyDeleteWell, at least he saved his line with 7 rebounds and 9 assists, so he has 26 PRA ;)
DeleteI started 0/3 in Finals Guarantees, so you're not the only one with this ammount of luck ;)
only big gun i have is Paul I may take him next game .Crowder was a dud for me 1 point 9 rebounds.I think if i started i can get 4
ReplyDeleteWell, it's not easy to score in NBA Finals, but at leash he got 9 rebounds ;) I hope he will bounce-back as he is my pick for Game 2 :)
DeleteWell, the good news, I have at least some options from the Suns. So, I had to chose between Paul (who I have in both GD and FP, and who surely wants to set the tone in g1) or maybe, I don´t know, the only player in either rosters to ever have played in NBA Finals, Crowder. Guess who I picked? The guy that scored one point (1) with less than 30 seconds to play, and he still missed the second free throw. Bummer. At least I had Ayton in FP.
ReplyDeleteSo now, as I also want to save Paul for the game when one team has three wins (hopefully the Suns) in GD, I will pick him in FP and Bridges in GD (who I would have loved to pick in g1 after he scored 14 pts).
Back in Milwaukee it´s time to break out my remaining decent Bucks (pretty much everybody outside the big three).
Well, at least Crowder save his line with 9 rebounds which gave him 10 PRA, just 6 PRA less than Bridges who was my pick ;)
DeleteI'm going with bounce-back Crowder, then I have Ayton, CP3 (for possibly last game) and Cameron Johnson. If series is going to be longer, then I will pick Craig and Saric probably which doesn't look good...
How did you save other Bucks? So the longer series goes, the bigger advantage you should gain ;)
10+ years doing this DTTF, and I’m just realizing now… that save-guy-for-last-game strategy really doesn’t work.
ReplyDeleteOf course we have seen great do-or-die performances through the years. But that’s the problem, those types of games and performances are memorable.
Stick with me…
How about the ones that are not memorable?
Pretty sure if we average all PRA of stars across games, their true best PRA do not happen on the last game.
I’m leaning towards use-best-player-before-he-gets-injured pick…
Well, you're probably right, but what is the best game to pick for best players? It's kind of difficult to decide and for last game you have no choice and just pick this guy ;)
DeleteMoreover it leaves good impression for you if in last game you pick player with good result - you feel like "ok, at least I finished strong", so it's kind of psychological trick for me as I don't fight for even good spot in the standing ;)