Hi Everyone! Real life challenges have been a very real thing this year & while I'm quite last minute with this intro post, I'll be doing my best over these first 2 days of games to help answer any questions, provide picking advice & ultimately get a consistent posting schedule planned out moving forward.
Firstly, here's a link to the league that Fantasy Postseason hosts for this year's daily pick game so please make sure you all join up right away: Fantasy Postseason League
Also, here's a link to the Google Drive to Disney World spreadsheet, which is our PRA equivalent of the old Auto Trader Drive To The Finals game that the NBA used to offer: Google Drive League
*Simply add your name yourself to the very left column of the Playoff Central tab if it's not currently listed & begin to enter your picks next to your name for the appropriate days. While some of the team/player information tabs & other spreadsheet details may not be fully up to date yet, please understand that we'll be getting all of that sorted soon.
For time sake, I went back & found Tangent's first post from the previous years that describes "Steps to Navigate the First Round" and I've applied it to this year's Playoffs in my writing below for the purpose of this introductory blog entry.
Step 1: Identify teams you expect to lose
In my humble opinion, the most likely "seeding upset" would be the Heat (5) over the Pacers (4). Without doing any specific research, my general understanding is that the Heat are essentially favorites here so don't let the seeding fool you. That said, this series could go either way, so it's one to avoid for picking purposes.
A less popular opinion may be my second in line "seeding upset" in which I can foresee the Thunder (5) beating the Rockets (4) under the right circumstances. This would be a competitive series regardless of injury, but if Westbrook (out for Game 1 at least) misses 2 games or more & the Thunder win at least 1 of those games, then I legitimately give them a better shot than any other lesser seeds (after the Heat) at completing the seeding upset.
I'd say Nuggets (3) vs. Jazz (6) would be my next in line, but with Bogdanovic permanently out & Conley likely out for the first 2 games, I just don't think the Jazz have will have enough ammo to get it done. Although I'll be initially avoiding all the series I've mentioned here & above, picking a Jazz star/playmaker for Game 2 if Conley is still out isn't necessarily a bad idea if they lose Game 1 & you feel confident that the Nuggets will win the series. Also, Philadelphia HAD a chance to upset Boston if Simmons was healthy, but that chance is now gone in my opinion. Philly lacks some serious team unity & I just don't see them coming together to top the Celtics.
All of the other top seeds not mentioned above should have no major problems winning their matchups, although I do give the Blazers an outside shot against the Lakers. Can't believe I'm saying that, but it's truly a compelling matchup as the Blazers are much better than a conventional 8th seed & the Lakers simply have not been playing well in the bubble. I expect the Lakers to bring their "A" game and turn that around, but if they don't they could easily lose because Dame Lillard is a SUPERSTAR & they've found a player rotation recently that really works well for them.
Step 2: Identify the top 14 12 players from teams you expect to lose.
There are 2 less calendar days / picking days than there have been in the First Round of previous years given the removal of all previously required travel. Make sure to determine all 12 of your MUST PICKS & tweak them accordingly if any series start going the opposite of what you'd planned.
This is no longer applicable due to the easy 4 games per day scheduling format this year in the first round. What's not so easy is that this essentially means less game days & therefore less total picks than we've ever had in the past. In this first round in particular, we'll all need to be very careful to not let too many big times picks pass us by. Welcome to "Bubble Life" :)
Remember that home court advantage no longer applies, so it's going to be very interesting.
Step 5: Above everything else, trust your gut
If you're like me & believe in "bounce-back" games for talented players that simply didn't produce as well as normal in their previous outing, then that & other player/team specific matchup feelings, etc can be make for valuable gut-shot calls that will allow you to differ from the popular pick & separate your picking plan a bit from others you're competing with.
Hi, as always great job even in this short form ;) I have 7 favourites in series, only HOU-OKC is 50-50 for me and it should be long series, but who knows - it's 2020. Today I'm rolling with Porzingis as I hope he'll play good game (it's a little bit risky, but if he don't play, it'll be more fun for me as expectations will be lower ;)). For tommorow I pick playoff mode DJ Augustin (just kidding, but he made game-winner last year in game 1 and maybe he'll surpise Bucks), but seriously I think Vuc will be the most popular pick and let's hope game won't be blowout after 1st half ;)
ReplyDeleteI like to find some dark horse picks - for today is probably Ingles, for tommorow maybe McCollum - what do you think?
Thanks Maciej! Porzingis may be a good pick as he's been rolling lately & it's a bit against the grain as most folks are probably picking Caris Levert on the Nets. Tomorrow you're likely right that Vucevic will be the most popular pick & for good reason because he "should" produce decent numbers while Gordon is either still out or freshly banged up; however the risk of a blow-out definitely exists. The Jazz game is currently in progress & Ingles is doing decent. He could make for a decent Game 2 pick if Conley doesn't play, but he could also be one of those fringe guys that you simply end up never picking because there may always be stronger options on any given day & come to think of it, with this "compressed" playoff schedule of 4 games each day without fail, that means there will be less picking days (so less total picks) than all previous versions of this game in the past. As a result, we should all be extra careful to not let "must picks" on the losing teams pass us by.
DeleteGood analysis, Jerry. Totally agree about how different schedule impacts the game. If it has always been the right approach to pick best players from teams most likely to lose, now it's more than ever. That's why I will not be very original in picking LeVert and Vucevic for Game1. Anyway, if you trust the Nuggets, obviously Mitchell was the best pick today. No way he will post this numbers again...But I still don't have a favourite for this series.
ReplyDeleteThanks! And yeah Mitchell will surely end up as the pick of the day with those crazy numbers & a loss. It’s halftime & the Nets look worse than I thought they’d be. Levert will be my only Nets pick so I’m just getting him out of the way like most others. I’ll surely stray my picking from the popular norm at some point but at the beginning I like eliminating 1 player from a series I believe has the strongest chance of being a sweep.
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DeleteMitchell was the perfect pick (should the Nuggets win that series), getting 73 got GD and 74 for FP including 57 regular points. If the Jazz do win the series there is no shame in this pick as it should more than make up for 1 scrub pick in the next round.
DeleteI recall in 2014 when everyone thought Denver was a lock against the up and coming Warriors.
I took Steph Curry in G1 he had a mediocre game and although the Nuggets took G1, the Warriors won the next 3 and advanced in 6 with Curry going off later that series and against the Spurs in the next round.
I am still with the Mavs, even without Dirk. There is still Maxi Kleber from Würzburg :)
DeleteI am happy with my Doncic-Pick in FP, and okay with Embiid in google. Mitchell was the best pick possible, as he will not repeat that performance. But that´s okay, too. Good game, tough loss.
Tonight it will be Vucevic in FP and Nurkic in GD. Want to reserve Lillard for a time to see how rusty the Lakers really are.
In the long run, seeing as there is no homecourt, no travel, no not-in-my-house, there will not be many upsets. Just pure basketball, the better teams should prevail. That means the Heat should beat the Pacers. Miami was the 4 seed until they lost on final day against Indiana in a game they didn´t care about because there was nothing to play for. Who cares if you are the 4 or the 5 when all games are played in Disneyworld?
AlexHerges says:
DeleteI still have problems commenting here. But better being Unknown than not being able to write at all.
I took the same players but reversed with Vucevic on GD and Nurkic on FP. Good news and bad news with Vucevic 53 PAR but the Magic won.
DeleteI'm very happy with my Vucevic pick yesterday despite the win as we all know that the Bucks will still win that series. I'm also glad to have avoided any Mitchell or any Jazz players given that series now being tied & anybody's series.
DeleteGreat for my pick Mitchell. Trusted my gut as Jerry's step #5. Highest average for a Round 1 Game 1 -- he always light it up.
ReplyDeleteBut bad for my Mavs. Porzingis got ejected, and the ensuing minutes in the 3Q got stale. Hurting. Hurts!
Alex, are you still with the Mavs? Maybe Dirk can unsharpen the unicorn's horn a bit. Cool heads prevail.
Btw, if you believe Rockets can't get through Lakers anyways, Harden can be a good pick for their Game 1 while Westbrook is out.
DeleteTaong, I disagree about picking Harden so early. Of course the Rockets won after you'd made your post above, but even if not, the Rockets have so few reliable statistical players that in the chance they do advance, it'd be very ideal to still have both Harden & Westbrook available, particularly with so many other pickable players in the 1st round on lesser teams amidst that more compressed schedule.
DeleteSome thoughts after day 1:
ReplyDelete1) thanks NBA referees for ejecting Porzingis, now I am underdog since day two and try to make a comeback. But at least KP played and honestly I like being underdog and attacking ;)
2) I don't understand why Denver didn't focus on stopping Mitchell and let others shoot taking in consideration how hot Mitchell was. Moreover why did they play Murray-Jokic pick'n'rolls just in the clutch instead of doing it all game long to avoid close game? 3-6 match-ups are tricky, but Denver should be better - they still have Harris and Barton who don't play and I doubt Mitchell play this good all series (especially when I take him ;))
3) Well, this schedule is a little bit tricky for me, because we have 1-8 & 4-5 match-ups on one day and 2-7 & 3-6 on another. So step2 it's like picking top6 guys from 4 losing teams from this match-ups. For me it's: Porzingis, Doncic, Mitchell, Levert, Embiid and Harris/Gobert from 2-7 & 3-6 and Vucevic (or as we're in august - Augustin :D), Lillard, Nurkic (safe picks), Oladipo/Warren/Brogdon (it's difficult to choose), Paul, SGA/Harden, Westbrook (depends on how series would go). So I think 1-8 & 4-5 days are more difficult to choose from and better schedule would be if we had every type of match-ups every day.
4) Nets will probably be swept as I saw game was over after 1st half, but how did Dallas and Philly look? I didn't watch it and I'm curious of what do you think ;)
Dallas looked okay even without Porzingis, but their season-long struggles in clutch reared its ugly head. Their NBA top offense is not designed for clutch situations.
Delete1) I hated the Porzingis calls.
Delete2) Both DEN & UTA did a better job in Game 2 defending their opposing stars, but others stepped up and ultimately UTAH looked very under control for the majority of the game. This series really could go either way.
3) I agree that it's weird & less than ideal having the schedule conformed to every other day games for the same teams. Just another challenge to navigate through all of this craziness.
Wow, what a day 2 of the playoffs... Magic & Trail Blazers won and now if they lose again, it'll be time to pick Giannis/AD/LBJ. Vuc was great and as I told you DJ Augustin turned on playoff mode (11 pts, 11 as) ;) Moreover Miami showed that it'll be hard for Indiana to beat them, so I think maybe it's time to pick someone from Pacers as I'm still not sure Rockets will win their series. Those days with 1-8 & 4-5 playing are tougher... tonight I'll probably pick LeVert (safe pick) as I expect Mitchell to have bad game and wait to see results of other series - maybe there will be even more upsets?
ReplyDeleteMaybe save Giannis on an elims game
DeleteEven if the Blazers or Magic go up 0-2 which I highly doubt either will, I still wouldn't think it's time to pick Giannis/AD/LBJ. I'm not buying an upset until either have a 3rd win & even then I believe the Lakers or Bucks would survive at least the first eliminating attempt. I'm putting a lot of weight on predicting the series correctly this year and I'm not super worried about losing big time picks as long as there are enough viable players from lesser teams in other series to pick in their place.
DeleteI meant if both Magic & Blazers win today and have 2-0 lead, then it'll probably be time to pick someone from LAL/MIL ;) although LeVert's FG% is low, his numbers are still nice and I'm glad I picked him instead of someone from Jazz/Mavs (now those series are 1-1). I thought maybe Philly has a chance to win a series with Hayward's injury, but it'll be tough so I hope Embiid can dominate next game, because taking him with 0-3 could be bad.
DeleteToday's pick is tricky taking into account Portland & Orlando leads, but still not being favouries. Probably CP3 will be popular option, but I think I'm going to roll with someone from Indiana as this series could be quick and let me see how other series are going.
Yeah, I know what you meant, just saying I'm not buying a possible upset until one of those teams gets a 3rd win on the other. I have Embiid for the next game because I feel like he'll truly give up if they're down 3-0 as you mentioned. He started out well today, but then clearly gave up & pouted like he tends to do. Hopefully this means he'll dominate all game long next game and give it all he's got given that 3-0 whole would truly bury them.
DeleteCheck out my new blog entry where I mentioned my OKC / IND picks. I'm still not 100% certain whether I'm picking a Pacer or a Thunder player & the ones I'm considering certainly aren't the obvious ones.