I want a sweep. But there will never be a sweep in the Finals this year.
Standing at rank 56 and only Splitter, Allen, Chalmers and Green remaining in my pool, I want a sweep. With the Big Threes from the Spurs and Heat being popular picks in the next three games, I am sure to lose ground now against the people around me. Assuming a Big Three average PRA of 30 and my picks' average of 15, that is a dropoff of 45 PRA just for the next three games. That lines up with about 98 percentile, which is what I got last year (I said I wanted 99 this year). Now, if series stretches to 7 games, that's another dropoff of 40 to 50 PRA and that lines up at about 93 percentile. That is why I want a sweep.
But there will never be a sweep. Game 1 showed us a lot of things that make this series even more unpredictable and thus may go 7 games. Noone will know what would have happened if LeBron James did not have cramps and had to sit the better part of the fourth quarter. Noone will know what would have happened if the Spurs didn't have 20 turnovers in the first three quarters (which almost always spells a loss as Ginobilo mentioned). The Heat seems unfazed by the Spurs home crowd, and that may be vice versa when they go to Miami. Game 2 is up for grabs, and the rest of the games too. I am still sticking to my prediction of Spurs in 5, but I will not be surprised if this goes 7.
As for my pick, nothing fancy here, just following the pick plan (revised pick plan). Tiago Splitter in Game 2.
By the way, if you still have Tony Parker, pick him now in Game 2. Game 1 showed he can still play through his injured ankle. Ignore that he is the hottest pick; that doesn't matter. Don't get the illusion that his ankle gets better with each and every game.