Hey everybody,
I'm taking Tangent's place for the time being in writing these first weekend strategy columns. So let's look at the first round series starting tomorrow (Saturday) and examine what strategies we should consider in making our selections. We will be looking at the Sunday series in post tomorrow. I'll put in BOLD absolute MUST PICKS at any time they're in true risk of being eliminated and list their season average in PRABS (points-rebounds-assists-blocks-steals). To be clear, just because I have them in BOLD doesn't mean I'm advising that you pick them in that round.
Milwaukee (5) @ Indiana (4)
These teams were only separated by 2 wins in the standings, making this a tough one to call this early. Milwaukee undoubtedly has the edge, given their somewhat recent championship experience and the best player on the floor in Giannis, but the Pacers have home court advantage and have a streaky hot style of play. A lot rides on the return of Damian Lillard for the Bucks. If he returns at some point in this series, I'd feel really good about MIL advancing; for now I'll prob wait and see how the first few games play out. Giannis is definitely a guy you should be saving until you're confident the Bucks will lose a series, and at that point probably play him in an elimination game.
Top Picks:
MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo 50.72 PRABS
IND: Tyrese Haliburton 34.84 PRABS
IND: Pascal Siakam 30.56 PRABS
*MIL: Damian Lillard 35.39 PRABS
LA Clippers (5) @ Denver (4)
This is a very tough series and one to stay away from. The Clippers have been playing great basketball lately and sometimes the Nuggets simply look uninspired. Denver also recently fired their coach, which definitely doesn't scream group cohesiveness. Denver's home court advantage, recent championship experience and simply having Jokic should be enough, but the Clippers will be a tough out with both Leonard and Harden currently playing at a high level. Much like my Giannis comment above, you'll want to save Jokic in the same fashion.
Top Picks:
DEN: Nikola Jokic 54.73 PRABS
LAC: James Harden 35.15 PRABS
DEN: Jamal Murrary 31.13 PRABS
LAC: Kawhi Leonard 30.68 PRABS
Detroit Pistons (6) @ New York Knicks (3)
Finally, an easy one to pick from. I do not believe that the Pistons have any chance here. The Knicks are as tough as they come in playoffs (see last year) and they've arguably gotten better. The Pistons are young, inexperience and just happy to be in the playoffs. The best stats guy on the Pistons by far is Cade Cunningham, making him an early must-pick. Jalen Duren would be next to pick, but he's inconsistent & depending on your other options, you may just want to go one pick deep on the Pistons altogether. Avoid picking Knicks completely unless the series somehow swings in the other direction.
Top Picks:
DET: Cade Cunningham 41.69 PRABS
NYK: Karl-Anthony Towns 42.31 PRABS
NYK: Jalen Brunson 34.71 PRABS
DET: Jalen Duren 27.88 PRABS
Minnesota (6) @ LA Lakers (3)
Luka + Lebron + Home Court. I'm a believer, especially with how Austin Reaves has been playing this season. Anthony Edwards is a force, but the rest of that Timberwolves team just doesn't seem up to task; in fact they look noticeably not as good as they were last season. Anthony Edwards is the only true must pick on the team and I'm probably holding him for an elimination game. Depending on other options, I may pick Randle or Gobert along the way, but I certainly won't be picking any Lakers unless the series swings the opposite way.
Top Picks:
LAL: Luka Doncic 42.11 PRABS
LAL: LeBron James 38.29 PRABS
MIN: Anthony Edwards 36.44 PRABS
MIN: Rudy Gobert 28.68 PRABS
MIN: Julius Randle 28.48 PRABS
Schedule look ahead:
DET/NY & LAC/DEN have their Game 2 on Monday.
MIL/IND & MIN/LAL have their Game 2 on Tuesday.
Who are you picking?
I'm picking Kawhi Leonard. I've seen too many playoff runs where Kawhi goes down before I can pick him. If he's playing, he gets my pick. I expect Denver will win, but if not, the Clippers won't make it past round 2 anyways.
ReplyDeleteFair enough. Kawhi looked great to end the season. I agree that if you pick him you pick him pretty early.
DeleteCongrats to Heat & Grizz. The tougher, grittier teams both persevered. These are honestly the teams I'd like to see facing the #1 seeds. It'll make those series better for sure.
ReplyDeleteTo be honest, my first thought was picking Cade. But looking at the schedule ahead, on Monday we only have two games, Knicks-Pistons and Nuggets-Clippers. I'd rather stay away from picking from DEN or LAC early, so I'll keep Cade available to pick him on Monday. The problem is the rest of the series are difficult to predict. So I am going to start with a really bold pick. Kevin Porter has been doing good lately without Lillard, I am not expecting a big score, but I hope it will buy me some time to watch how all of this series look like. High risk? Maybe, but I hope it will pay off later
ReplyDeletePicking KP is bold. There are so many players to pick from that I consider him a guy that shouldn’t be picked at all really. Tangent’s point about Kawhi actually has me looking that direction now with Cade on Monday. I’ve got a picking plan I like at the moment, but who knows if I’ll stick with it. Some times a wild plan like yours works out though so I’m curious to see it!
DeleteGood call Maccabi - *Switches pick*
DeletePicking The Klaw is tempting, but I like this late-season Clippers. Will watch and wait til G2.
ReplyDeleteDay 1 pick: Cade
Day 2 pick: Banchero
I have a feeling that will be a very popular picking pattern. Nothing wrong with that, but I may stray from the path from the jump this time around if nothing more than just to spice things up.
Deletei look a lot at the point spread if im not sure,Vegas knows more than me so I trust them.So today Knicks 6,5 favorite and I like them to win series plus Im from NY So I got Cunningham NObody else on Pistons need to be takin this early.Duran only other guy id consider,Tomorrows pick is tough,,Debating between Banchero and Hero,Hero has been on fire so Im leaning towards him But Heat I think are a better team than Magic and have better chance of winning series /Also consider Morant or a Grizz But Hero for now.Kiwi is very tempting but Clippers have been on fire and may beat the Nuggets But I do favor Nugs so its a wait and see,If Kiwi gets hurt Ill give u props for a great pick ..
ReplyDeleteHeat look great but they aren’t beating the Cavs in this series. That would be an all time blunder. They’re not just an 8 seed; they’re a 10th seed agains the #1 seed!
DeleteI really want to pick Cade however, I think he is unproven and could have a dud in his first playoff game especially on the road. I am picking Edwards as I know he could hit his PRA average.
ReplyDeleteEdwards should be solid out of gate and I also believe the Lakers will advance so all in all a good pick I’d say
Deleteprobly stick with Hero .I dont like changing but could easilly nhave takin Banchero or a Grizz
ReplyDeleteKyle Kuzma, nonuple zero.
ReplyDelete0-5 from the field
0-2 from 3
0-2 from the FT line
0 points
0 rebounds
0 assists
0 steals
0 blocks
0 turnovers
Feeling sorry for the two who picked him in FPS
he basically played for the other team, check his sportbook bets!
Delete