We are around the halfway point of the first round, and the majority of the series seem to be easy to predict. Let's examine how we expect the series will go, and how we should approach the strategy:
Near Locks
- DEN leads LAL 3-1
- OKC leads NOP 3-0
- MIN leads PHX 3-0
- BOS leads MIA 2-1
All four of these series feel safe to call, with only the Lakers vs Nuggets series having any shred of doubt (since all Lakers loses have at least been close and in games they led at the half). Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant are all must pick players due to consistency and high potential. Next in line after that are Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum, all of which are strong producers but with a lower potential production floor from the occasional flop. If you are feeling lucky, you can also try the likes of DeAngelo Russel or Larry Nance. Get these players while you can!
Plenty of Uncertainty
- DAL leads LAC 2-1
- NYK leads PHI 2-1
- IND leads MIL 2-1
- CLE and ORL tied 2-2
All of these series are best left untouched for now. I wouldn't be surprised if all four of these went to 6 games.
NYK/PHI and IND/MIL both share Game 5 and 6 on the same day, and also share Game 5 with CLE/ORL. A lot of people have already picks Embiid and Siakam, which is what I've done. Milwaukee being down 2-1 after looking so strong in Game 1 has me feeling a bit nervous. A few players locked in to picking Bobby Portis while Giannis is out, and personally I'm regretting not making that call yet. I'd make that call in game 4 if not for the fact that Phoenix is down 3-0.
DAL/LAC has game 5 on Wednesday, sharing the day with MIA/BOS and maybe OKC/NOP if the Thunder haven't eliminated the Pelicans yet. You can pencil in a Clipper if down 3-1, or pick a Heat player and buy a day if tied 2-2 (although a blowout might make you want to grab a DAL/LAC player). DAL/LAC and CLE/ORL share game 6 on the same day. If the series shifts against Dallas, you would need to consider having the option to pick Luca Doncic here. Otherwise, there isn't a true must pick player so you'll have options to weigh.
What are your thoughts on these series?
There's noone in Clippers outside of Harden who can give decent PRA. Kahwi's minutes are limited, and PG is streaky at best. So we can wait til this series is near end.
ReplyDeleteI got Beal next, and then CJ.
And then PG drops treys like there's no tomorrow.
DeleteI still think the Mavs and Cavs will advance, especially with Kawhi being far from his best condition. Last two games in Orlando made me a little uncertain though. I prefer not picking from the Sixers-Knicks and the Pacers-Bucks series. They could go either way. I know it's a risk because if both the Sixers and Bucks lose today there will be a tough pick for G5. But I still have KD for today, so I think it's the safe bet to do. Tomorrow's pick is more of a coin toss between CJ and D Russell. I am leaning towards D'Angelo, as I trust him a little more. Or maybe I will pick different in each game, I will decide tomorrow
ReplyDeleteim taking middleton today...
ReplyDeleteingram tomorow and wednesday harden or lillard
DeleteNYK/PHI and MIL/IND on the same day is troubling since I made the mistake of taking Durant and Booker in G3 instead of Embiid/Maxey has me 25th in GD and 154th and dreadfully (already) triple digits behind in FP! With Greek Freak and apparently Lilliard both out, I've taken Middleton GD/Portis FP. I'm still at risk of losing someone on NY/PHI should NY win in 5 or PHI advances.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking of splitting between Middleton and Portis but picked Middleton on both! Whew! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4auKkH9QHA&ab_channel=HouseofHighlights
ReplyDeleteWatch Durant or Booker reach 40 PAR now that I've used them.
ReplyDeleteUnbelievable they are BOTH going to exceed 40 with nearly 30 in the 1st half more then ALL of Game 2 and almost the 34 they got in Game 3. Go figure that they go off at 0-3 and beat the one superstar playing for the Bucks! I just can not win in this game! I badly need to get ALL the series right and the masses need to miss one in order to get an edge!
DeleteIt's official BOTH hit 40 in the 3RD QUARTER! If I had not taken them yet this would not have happened! Give me a break DTTF GODS!
DeleteChanged pick from CJ to Brandon Ingram.
ReplyDeleteMaxey the next day.
Meanwhile, Clippers tied it 2-2. In both of the Mavs losses, the Clippers rushed the first quarter to force the Mavs to an uphill battle. Mavs can't just rely on their ability to rally. They need to be active in defense early and quick to identify the Clips' MO. In this game, they really intended PG to hoist more shots to get warmed up.
Clips made 10/13 contested threes in the first half yesterday. It's not sustainable, and I still think Mavs will advance. Luka is yet to play in his usual standard. He's both injured from his right knee and ill, but I guess he's gonna drop 40+ in game 5 and make it 3-2 for the Mavs.
DeletePicked Booker yesterday, was a great result. Banchero the day before played like sh*!. Today I'm picking Ingram. Tomorrow I'll decide between Maxey and Middleton (if both Dame and Giannis are out), but probably will go with Maxey. Wednesday it's the beard time.
ReplyDeleteTook Herro in GD instead of Valanciunas due to minutes even though both were terrible in their last game. Bam on FP hoping they pull a Durant/Booker and the rest of the Heat do nothing.
ReplyDeleteValanciunas beats Herro yesterday despite 18 fewer minutes what else is new.
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