Welcome to another edition of Guarantees in which I (do not) guarantee playoffs things that can happen in next 3 days. So far 28 out of 66 Guarantees were correct, but in last episode I was 5/8, so I kind of turned it around a little bit ;) This weekend we have 2 Game 7's, Game 1 of WCF and no basketball on Monday... Let's get in to see what can be guaranteed for those three games.
Guarantee #69: Competetive Game 7! I guarantee that there will be difference smaller than 10 points between teams in both Game 7s. [Correct, Game 7s were competetive!]
Guarantee #70: Going at each other! I guarantee all four: KD, Giannis, Trae and Joel will score 30+ points in Game 7. [Not correct, Trae didn't make it]
Guarantee #71: Home team is going to win! I guarantee in at least two of three games this weekend home teams are going to win. [Not correct, only Suns won at home]
Guarantee #72: Out of nowhere! I guarantee Bucks' bench (who was 1/10 FG, 4 points in Game 6) will score at least 12 points in Game 7. [Not correct, only 9 points scored by Bucks' bench]
Guarantee #73: Unexpected support! I guarantee Kennard and Zubac are going to score at least 15 points combined. [Correct, Zubac had 9, Kennard - 6, so they had exactly 15]
Guarantee #74: Don't turn it over! I guarantee Trae & Joel will have less than 10 turnovers combined (they had 12 combined in Game 6). [Not correct, they had 14 TOs]
Feel
free to discuss in comments not only my guarantees, but also games, players performances and
fantasy implications. And whenever you read it, have a great day!
#71, 73 and 74 are ok for me. At halftime it looked good for my tactics of ignoring Jazz and Sixers picks, but...and Collins wasn't a great pick either. Going with Huerter next one. Today I don't trust any remaining Bucks, but I will not pick Harden, hoping we will stay healthy and they will win. I am picking Griffin, because assuming that the Sixers advance (am I assuming too much?) he would have a much worse match-up in next round
ReplyDeleteYeah, Jazz loss is hurting most of people - I also didn't take any player from them ;/ yesterday I decided to pick Harris as I wanted his bounce-back and he played ok. I think I have to trust in Sixers and leave Embiid to ECF as it can give me some more points then, so I will go with Huerter as well (I even thought about him for yesterday) and I'll trust Nets and go bold with Connaughton today against the grain xD
DeleteIm taking Harden tonight.I wont take any lower picks until i have to.Had harris last night Id have liked 40 but he started real slow so 32 ok.Tomorows pick tuff im going to take Collins I still have Curry from 76ers but think they will win but not too sure.Who is this T Mann on Clippers ?
ReplyDeletejust relized i still had simmons hes been terrible but if hes ever going to havre a good game it will be tomorow and think the game is a toss up
DeleteT. Mann is second year player, drafted in 2nd round, but with Kawhi out he stepped out big. Harden is probably the most popular choice for today and I think Hawks player is good choice for Sunday as I expect Philly to not blow lead again in this series ;)
Deletewho u think i should take simmons or collins
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DeleteIt depends on what you're thinking of series and how much risk do you want to take. If you want to go all in on Sixers win and possibly have reward in ECF, then Collins, but if you're not so sure about Sixers and you're afraid of losing Simmons, then go with him ;)
Deletenot so big on Simmons and think 76ers at home will win but not very sure lol So far sticking with Collins but good advice.76ers 2.5 favorite so its a close call.
Deletei think everyone is taking Harden tonight Its a pick em game and for me ive takin Durant and all the Bucks pretty much.If 76ers win Ill have Curry n Simmons if Hawks win Gulinari and Bodjo
DeleteHarden was the best choice if someone used KD. I went all-in with Connaughton and now I lost points and Nets players and used decent Buck (I used 5 of them). I go with Huerter today and if Hawks win, Gallo, Lou Will and PJ Tucker are my top3 picks xD I never had dreamt about that situation, but that is possible...
DeleteI didn't expect Jazz and Nets to both lose and if Sixers will also do it, I don't know if in some days 5 PRA for me will be good result xD
Well, what two g6s these were. Mitchell was great, but the Jazz blew a lead the number 1 seed should not blow against a team, that historically never got out of the second round and lost their absolute star player for the remainder of at least this series. They found a way to lose, that was not an easy task.
ReplyDeleteThat makes the West pretty much a disaster for me pick-wise, I will need most of the remaining possible picks in the WCF and doubt I will have much left for the Finals. That means I´ll have to save some Eastern studs for that occasion. And that means I will have to go all-in with the 76ers and pick Hawks players in g7. Even if the Hawks won two of the three games in Philly so far, I will pick Trae (FP) and Clint (GD) and hope for the best.
For me East is bigger disaster with 5 Bucks taken and also 1 Sixers/5 Hawks used... from West I used just Booker and 4 Clippers, but with Kawhi out it feels better and there are 2 or 3 players from LAC with potential for nice result.
DeleteSeason is a goner for me (and probably anyone who took a Hawk and isn't within 100 of the top). I took the worst pick with Clint Capela who just dodged invisible territory with 20. Seth Curry picks also got 20 but his team lost making it not as bad of a pick as Capela.
ReplyDeleteTobias Harris becomes the 3rd major player (excluding Kyrie Irving) to get eliminated without me picking him in either game following Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell meanwhile I've taken 5 or 6 major players in both games who are still in the playoffs (depending if Capela is considered a major player) which is awful as now both big 2 on the Clippers and Bucks have been picked along with Trey Young who went 5/23 tonight from the field and had 6 TOs.
Well, you can laugh at me as I risked with picking Buck and Hawk in Game 7 (5 from both teams overall) and now my 4 best players for ECF are: Gallinari, Sweet Lou, PJ Tucker and probably Okongwu XD
DeleteAt least in West it's easier as I took only Booker and 4 Clippers (they are deep, so even now I have some players to pick).
I risked it, but it turned out to be disaster and now I can have fun picking guys with upside of 10 PRA xD
Risking it is the right play if you believe in your gut. Didn't work out this year but most years when things happen the way you would expect, your play pays off big time. I am with you for the East Finals. Okongwu hyyyyype!
DeleteWell, in my imagination I didn't even dreamt about thinking about picking Okongwu :D It didn't go well this year, but earlier I played it more safe (which was less fun), so I went this time all-in and I think that gives bigger chance for great result if you're lucky in predictions. Now I at least can laugh at myself, have no expectations and have a fun challenge to pick players who play 10 minutes or even less (probably depends on Bucks' rotation in series).
DeleteUnbelievable! The top seed in the West and East are eliminated. The Nets got unlucky, if KD was inches back behind the arc, Nets would had an easy path to the NBA Finals. Simmons really let his team down in this series and this is the only time I did not pick any Philly players in an elimination game. The best decision I made was at least I picked Mitchell and KD in an elimination game. Oh well what a crazy playoff season so far this year.
ReplyDeleteFor the East Finals, this will be totally a disaster. I used 4 out of 5 Hawks starters except Huerter. 4 out of 5 Bucks starters except Tucker. So my best Hawks are Huerter, Gallinari and Lou Williams. For Bucks, Tucker, Portis, Cunnington and Forbes.
For West Finals, I used Leonard, George and Morris Sr on Clippers side and only use Ayton on Suns side when AD suddenly got injured in that game. Well I’m happy to see at least the Suns won Game 1 without Paul. So I will pick Payne if Paul is still out for G2. Everyone will be rooting for the Suns to make it to the NBA Finals. The East will be very boring and I expect the Bucks to sweep the Hawks easily.
I hope there will be sweep in ECF as my fourth best guy is probably Okongwu from Hawks XD Wild playoffs, so many unexpected results...
DeletePlayers I picked from eliminated teams: Jazz 0 Sixers 0 Nets 2 (not Harden) Nuggets 4 (Jokic in the wrong round). Great strategy! xD
ReplyDeleteWell, I picked even worse - 0 Jazz, 1 Sixer (Harris), 1 Net (KD) and 3 Nuggets (Joker in 1st round, Porter and Morris in 2nd round)... sometimes risk has bad consequences, but there was pretty good chance it can be different. What is even funnier I took 5 Bucks and 5 Hawks, so 1 more pick from one team in 2nd round than teams that were eliminated combined xD
DeleteHa, that was funny. Not haha funny, but crazy funny.
ReplyDeleteDTTF will be very difficult in the next two rounds. Here is my success story:
West: Phoenix: Picked Booker and Bridges (FP) and Ayton (GD), so okay. Picked them back when AD was healthy and everybody thought LeBron would not bow out in the first round.
Clippers: Leonard and George are gone in both games after three home losses in the first round. How are they still around? Also picked Jackson in FP and Morris in GD. Slim pickings.
Fun Fact: Two days ago I thought the West would be a problem and I bet all my DTTF-Luck on the East. Haha.
East: Went all in with the Hawks: Picked Young and Capela in both game and Collins in GD. Didn´t dare to pick Huerter after a good game 6. Picked Capela instead. That´s the insult added to the injury. From the Bucks I only picked Embiid in his worst game of the second round in FP and Harris in GD. The only good thing is I didn´t have to pick Simmons.
Milwaukee: Started with two losses in Brooklyn, I ended up picking Giannis, Middleton and Holiday in both games, also Brook Lopez in FP. From Brooklyn I had Griffin in both games, and for g7 at least I managed to snag Durant (GD) and Harden (FP).
The next round will not be fun to pick, to say nothing of the Finals.
On the other hand, the playoffs are really interesting right now. To be honest, I would be happy for Paul and Booker, for all longtime Clippers fans, for the Bucks organisation and even for young Trae Young.
Conclusion: The Playoffs are very interesting, DTTF is a game of dice.