Tonight, we have a surprise Game 7 between the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets. Denver is proving to be very hard to eliminate, and will try for their 6th straight win in an elimination game. If they come back and pull off the upset, it is safe to say that a lot of the remainder of most players Drive to the Finals picks will be scraping the bottom of the barrel.
What do you do tonight? There is the option of picking from Game 1 on the East Finals, but where is the fun in that? We are likely to see two types of picks tonight:
1) The safety pick of Kawhi Leonard
This is a very easy pick to make, and also a pretty low-risk play. Pick Kawhi Leonard. It's an elimination game, so he is going to put up numbers. And it's the Clippers, who are very well known as an organization for blowing leads and getting eliminated in a fashion that should otherwise not be possible. Game 6 was not quite as bad as Game 6 years ago against the Rockets, but it was still a big lead that they blew in the third quarter and continued into the fourth quarter. Picking Leonard is a safe play, in case the Clippers are still out there doing what the Clippers do best: Squandering a sure thing into a loss.
2) The contrarian pick of your best remaining Nugget
This is an important play to make if you are far behind in the pool and looking to catch up. There are certainly going to be a lot of people just picking Leonard to be safe, so you will need to catch up by having Kawhi Leonard on a different day. This pick is one that is confident in the Clippers advancing, and are looking to grab one last Denver Nugget player on their way out the door. You cold also be like me, so far behind in the pool that it doesn't even matter anymore, so might as well do something completely different and see how bad it can get. Maybe I've now doomed the Clippers to lose by picking Paul Millsap? Mwa ha ha
Well, I still think about it... for me it's more fun (and somehow risky) to pick someone from East Finals than Kawhi or players from Nuggets. My remaining Nuggets players guarantee (Charles Barkley likes this ;)) to have at best average result, so it is not good choice as Harris/Millsap will not play good enough to get solid 25+ FP. I still consider Kawhi as Clippers like to blow their 3-1 leads in WCSF and even if they advance, in matchup vs Lakers Kawhi can have troubles and games under our expectations (and I surely pick him in this type of game if I don't do this today and they advance).
ReplyDeleteFrom East Finals it is interesting situation as I have all Heat players and all Celtics (expect for Brown and Tatum), so bascially I have 3 nice remaining players from Boston and we have like 5-6 players at least solid picks from Heat, so picking someone from Heat is probably better at the start of series. Picking anyone from this series today instead of Kawhi is risky as Clippers can lose, but I'm still unsure what I'm going to do - I think I should flip a coin to decide ;)
Picking Leonard today. It's just not worth possibly losing out on his consistently high PRA whereas his floor is higher than all of the remaining Nuggets' ceiling. That & I see no reason to pick from East Finals Game 1 as you could easily pick from the team that wins Game 1, which would be a troublesome start, & if the Clippers do advance (which they will) any Clippers bench guy is basically equivalent to a Nuggets pick today so that'll be my "in place of Kawhi pick" if needed at a later time.
ReplyDeleteTotally agree, it's not worth the risk of losing Kawhi to pick Gary Harris, who will probably do worse than Zubac, Harrell, Beverley...So it's Leonard for me today
DeleteA surprise listing of G7 indeed. Too late for me to change as the Bos-Mia game has started. Ugh!
ReplyDeletePicking Leonard also. Not confident can the Clippers ever will get past round two with how much depth they have on their roster. Really think Chuck’s guaranteed is cursing their chances of advancing.
ReplyDeleteBos-Mia G1.. what a game!
ReplyDeleteNote to self. Use the Clippers in Round 1 next year.
ReplyDeleteCongrats to Denver. But takes the fun out of the Battle of L.A.
Well, Denver is DttF & FP nightmare as they came back from 1-3 again... I decided to risk and not pick any of Clippers players as I was pretty confident they can win series and series vs Lakers could be long, but it still turns out to not be so bad as Kawhi had bad game and result from him was under expectations. Meanwhile I had some fun with risky pick from ECF which turns out great - Dragic is Game 1 monster this playoffs and I have him for good result (40 FP).
ReplyDeleteSo now I used 3 players from both series (Brown, Tatum, Dragic and Jokic, Murray, MPJ), but still there are plenty of options - even from Denver I have 3 decent picks (Grant, Harris, Millsap). Lakers are now clear favourites to win West and from Game 1 of ECF we can see it should be long series... good for us as a fans, not ideal in DttF ;)
AlexHerges:
ReplyDeleteWell, I did not pick Kawhi, but Paul George was very not good. Pretty much everybody else was better than him. 16 PRA?
But no sense crying over spilt milk, I will now go into the conference finals with all the Lakers (LeBron, Davis, and then lots of coinflips), all Nuggets except for Jokic, Murry and Porter Jr. (which means only coinflips left), all Heat and all Celtics except for Tatum (google) or Walker/Theis (FP).
The strategy should be pretty clear from now on. Pick Lakers and chose the right winner in the East. Good thing g1 was such a clear game :)
i took leonard he didnt do well but it was the right pick for me..I got Harris next game It was either him Porter or Grant.Ill be happy with 22 points
ReplyDeletedaren ^
DeleteJust weeding through the best remaining of DEN, BOS, MIA.
ReplyDeleteFinals will be all LAL picks.
Well, with Denver we never know ;) I think I'll use my fifth DEN player and then go all Lakers or maybe sixth Denver player later, but I hope Heat can make it to the Finals as there are plenty of options there (5 or even 6), I just used Dragic for now and still have one or two players from Boston to pick (Smart, Theis/Hayward if come back quick and in good form).
DeleteSo for me Finals will be more picks from Heat than Lakers as they are more reliable - from Lakers there is 2 must picks (and I'll have to pick someone from LAL in WCF), solid playoff Rondo and then some average guys who probably perform worse than those 4-6 options from Heat in my opinion.
It's amazing how bad are all my last picks doing. I am so low at the standings that I have nothing to lose anyways, so I will bet on a Celtics comeback. I just picked Smart while Hayward wasn't playing, but picking Heat from now on, starting with Adebayo. In the west I only have Grant left to pick, then picking Lakers. If the Heat make it to the Finals, then I can pick Spoelstra. By now just my advice is to avoid Adebayo and Grant in the next two days. With my luck they will score 20 combined
DeleteIt's definetely also some kind of ability to have such bad picks ;) great I'm going with other players next two days ;) joking aside, I wrote something like this, really laughing at my picks before and joking about always picking worse of choices I thought about and it turned out to be not so bad, even good now as I'm 4th in DttF and 26th in FP for now :) but probably not for long as bad luck will surely come to me next days after I'm writing that it's going so well ;)
DeleteBy the way it's funny that in this moment of playoffs Millsap's 12 FP turns out to be ok result ;) I'm optimist and my advise is to remember that we always pick right, only players disappoint our expectations ;)
I really think it’s not necessary to pick any Denver players besides Jokic and Murray. Really had use my 4th Denver option and only average me a weak 24 FP combined. So I think it’s safe to use Lakers role players because the Lakers 2 all stars in AD and LBJ plus Rondo. And some solid players like KCP and Danny Green. Because the Heat has many reliable options I can pick in the finals. Like Dragic, Adobayo, Crowder, Herro, Butler and Robinson. I’m going Tatum and Adabayo for the next two East finals games. Because I rather pick Adobayo this series than against the Lakers if he has to deal with AD and Howard.
ReplyDeleteFor the West finals think I will use my last Denver option in Grant and pick Lakers role players starting with KCP and Howard. Maybe both of these conferences final could be done in four games.
love the blog but the guy always quits doing it halfway through
ReplyDeleteWho me? It's particularly been a challenge this year given everything that's going on in the world. We try to update as frequently as possible, but our real lives do need to take priority. That said, I'll try to post more in the upcoming days & next year we'll surely attempt to manage the blog with more of a schedule assuming there's any semblance of normalcy in the world :)
Deleteno offense and u dont owe me but it happens every year .Love the game and appreciate anythimg i get But its getting tough now so this is when we can use ur imput
DeleteThat's gold Jerry! Gold!
DeleteWhat a game!
ReplyDeleteWest Finals G2 delivers
AlexHerges:
ReplyDeleteAaand, that´s it. That was the big chance. If there is one team that could have come back from 0-3 to win a series, it would have been this Nuggets team. And now they won g3 and blew it.
Well, the least they can do is lose g4 and come back a third time.
G4 Tyler Herro, this guy
ReplyDeleteAlexHerges:
DeleteThe good news, I picked Herro. The bad news, in the other game. In google I had Bam. Not too shabby himself. but Herro, damn, what a performance.
Niiiiiiice! Herro the Hero!
Deletedang where the blog at
ReplyDelete