AGAINST THE GRAIN: Don't Shai Away From Mr. Brogdon

The Thunder are down 0-1 & looked terrible in Game 1 so it's fair to pick an OKC player if you feel like they're on track to lose the series. The question then becomes, which player? Most folks will pick the veteran, Chris Paul, who didn't play very well in Game 1, yet still flirted with a triple double or perhaps even Steven Adams who gets decent numbers easily against the small-ball Rockets even though he won't play big minutes. And of course there's also Gallinari who led the Thunder in scoring in Game 1; however, I tend to think that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will go BIG after an absolute disaster of a Game 1. He's had a standout year with the Thunder, averaging 19/6/3 & he's capable of gaudy statistical numbers on any given night. He plays solid minutes & Game 2 seems like a good bet to me & he also makes for a solid hedge if you feel the Thunder still have a chance to upset the Rockets, given those other players listened above that you'll still have available.


So in the continued spirit of going against the grain, I decided to make this post a double since I hadn't yet posted any specific game content here over these first three days. It's pretty clear to avoid the two 1-8 matchups where the 8 seeds are up 1-0, so that leaves Heat vs. Pacers as the only other matchup to pick from. It seems that the Heat were favored to begin with & Game 1 only furthered that belief so it's fair to pick a Pacer at this point. While T.J. Warren will likely be the popular pick due to his scoring prowess & overall statistical output in the bubble, he's definitely had his problems against Jimmy Butler & the Heat. Oladipo is questionable with an eye injury (I'm betting he'll play) & just hasn't been great this year so I believe that Malcom Brogdon will be a better pick than both of them in Game 2, or at worst, a comparable pick. He tends to contribute well in all PRA categories & much like my OKC explanation, he makes for a decent hedge if the Pacers somehow take control of the series as it's safe to assume that Warren & Oladipo would have even stronger outputs against the Lakers or Blazers in the next round.


As always, I'll edit this post tomorrow night with the RESULTS of how this AGAINST THE GRAIN pick worked out!

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RESULT: What an incredible start to my Against The Grain column! I'm nailed these pics with both Brogdon (31) & SGA (39) securing the highest PRAs on their team. I went with my bounce-back gut that told me Shai would be the best of the two & that also went my way. Maybe I should buy a lottery ticket while I'm feeling lucky, because this surely won't last!

Comments

  1. Hi, great to see "Against the grain" series back :) I have the same opinin with today's pick. It's hard to pick today as Thunder & Pacers don't have one main star in producing fantasy points, so it's a little bit risky, but also that gives more fun. I'll probably roll with one of aforementonied Pacer as I feel OKC has better chance than Indiana to win series.

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    1. I watched most of those games and honestly the Thunder looked awful and left me feeling like Indiana had a better chance than them. Indy is not looking great today though approaching the 4th qtr so maybe both series won’t last long.

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    2. For me Houston played outstanding defense and that is what I didn't expect - I think they'll be my favourite to win against Lakers... Brogdon turned out to be my nice pick and SGA was great. Either way we have 2-0 in both series and it seems like we have two obvious picks next - Embiid and CP3 on games 3 as their series went 0-2.

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    3. I have the same next two picks as you. Also, I think Houston can beat the Lakers, but I'm not buying it until Houston is either up 2-0 or gets to 3 wins first.

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  2. Not so happy about my Doncic pick yesterday, as he didn't play so many minutes due to foul trouble. Still had a decent PRA, because he is such a great player, but he will do better most of nights. Also they won, though I still have the Clippers as favourite to advance.

    I didn't mean to go against the grain, but I also have Brogdon as my pick today, I think he is one of the most reliable Pacers on PRA, as you said he contributes on every category. So I trust him more than Warren.

    Tomorrow I guess Embiid is the obvious pick, because maybe it will be the last game he will be motivated to play big. Celtics are just better and I don't want to wait to a probable elimination game

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    1. Yeah Doncic kinda bummed me out after such a strong start yesterday. Brogdon is doing pretty good today as I expected but not so big that I regret not picking him. I think my SGA should be a good one in the end.

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  3. Paul had 39 points which is good.Ill take him.Embid tomorow

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    1. I just know CP3 will never give up & will go hard to avoid going down 3-0 or 3-1 if it comes to that so I’m saving him as my next Thunder pick. Keeping SGA for today.

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  4. Wow, nailed this one. Both Brogdon (31) & SGA (39) had the highest PRAs on their team & I stuck with SGA in all leagues. Both teams also lost. Both were solid picks, especially the SGA pick I went with.

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  5. AlexHerges:
    Ha, I was so happy with my Brogdon pick (prior before seeing the blog), and the very next night I stuck to my idea of Chris Paul (after reading the blog). Paul was about the worst pick of the night considering his abilities, his g1, what the others on his team did, and so on. Well, you win some, you lose some.

    Problem: Who to pick next? I don´t trust SGA to repeat that performance. In one game I will try Paul again, hoping for the bounce-back, in the other I go will Lillard, hoping for a good game despite/because of injury.

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    1. how did this blog talk you out of Brogdon? LOL Good luck tomorrow & hopefully Lillard will do well despite the injury! He's gotta do better than yesterday.

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    2. Alex Herges:
      No, no, I picked Brogdon allright, I just had him before I read, WHY I should have picked him. Of course, the very next game he goes bonkers (34/14/7), but he was okay here.

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  6. Nice calls with Against the Grain. I wish I had gone hunting for the bounce back game instead of picking Chris Paul. That one is gonna cost me!

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    1. Thanks man! I'm really stoked with my picks so far... which can only spell disaster on the horizon.

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