Going in to this Conference Finals, I thought that this is one of those rare times that homecourt advantage does not seem more important than the actual team themselves. Looking at the four teams (Cavs, Celtics, Rockets, Warriors), any of these teams I can see in the Finals.
DTTF-wise, this is one round where I cannot fully put myself into putting all my chips one way. If the unexpected team wins, I must be sure that I save the best players just in case I need them for the Finals.
So I start with the least. Here is my pick plan:
EAST (bet against the Celtics, only Horford is unavailable)
Game 1: Marcus Morris
Game 2: Jaylen Brown
Game 3: Jayson Tatum
Game 4: Terry Rozier
So they are sorted according to PRA potential, with the best set for the elimination game.
But as you know the Celtics won Game 1, and so I am adjusting the pick plan to the following:
EAST (unwillingly hedge against the Cavs)
Game 2: Tristan Thompson
Game 3: Kevin Love
Game 4: LeBron James
So that will stay the plan until the Cavs tie the series. If Cavs tie 1-1, then Game 3's pick will be Brown. If Cavs tie at 2-2, then Game 5's pick is Tatum (skipping only Brown) and Rozier for Game 6.
So, applying that to the other series...
WEST (bet against the Rockets)
Game 1: Eric Gordon
Game 2: Clint Cappela
Game 3: Chris Paul
Game 4: James Harden
This one stays the course as the Warriors won Game 1. But if the Rockets in any way go up 2-1, then it's Stephen Curry for Game 4 and Kevin Durant for Game 5... although I highly doubt it will ever come to that.
Sidenote: In Fantasy Postseason, it says I'm 232 points behind the leader. However, that is misleading because the top guys have used stars early in Round 1 that they will have limited choices this Conference Finals and the Finals. I ran through each on of the top guys, and I reckon I'm only behind half of that. Nothing that big games from Harden, Curry and Durant can't fix ;)
Good luck with your picks!
UPDATE: Cavs down 0-2, so it’s Love and LeBron down the line.
Rockets still my bet to lose the series and they are three losses away. So Tucker then Paul then Harden in queue.
G’luck!
DTTF-wise, this is one round where I cannot fully put myself into putting all my chips one way. If the unexpected team wins, I must be sure that I save the best players just in case I need them for the Finals.
So I start with the least. Here is my pick plan:
EAST (bet against the Celtics, only Horford is unavailable)
Game 1: Marcus Morris
Game 2: Jaylen Brown
Game 3: Jayson Tatum
Game 4: Terry Rozier
So they are sorted according to PRA potential, with the best set for the elimination game.
But as you know the Celtics won Game 1, and so I am adjusting the pick plan to the following:
EAST (unwillingly hedge against the Cavs)
Game 2: Tristan Thompson
Game 3: Kevin Love
Game 4: LeBron James
So that will stay the plan until the Cavs tie the series. If Cavs tie 1-1, then Game 3's pick will be Brown. If Cavs tie at 2-2, then Game 5's pick is Tatum (skipping only Brown) and Rozier for Game 6.
So, applying that to the other series...
WEST (bet against the Rockets)
Game 1: Eric Gordon
Game 2: Clint Cappela
Game 3: Chris Paul
Game 4: James Harden
This one stays the course as the Warriors won Game 1. But if the Rockets in any way go up 2-1, then it's Stephen Curry for Game 4 and Kevin Durant for Game 5... although I highly doubt it will ever come to that.
Good luck with your picks!
UPDATE: Cavs down 0-2, so it’s Love and LeBron down the line.
Rockets still my bet to lose the series and they are three losses away. So Tucker then Paul then Harden in queue.
G’luck!
I've made my series choices after Game 1 - planning on a Golden State vs. Boston NBA Finals. I'm going to go all in on Golden State and pick almost exclusively Rockets this round, so that means I don't need to pick a Cav yet. Tonight, I've got Jaylen Brown. That'll give me one more game for the Cavs to prove me wrong. I've got Clint Capela for tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI don’t get it; if you believe Warriors vs Celtics in the Finals why would you change from your Tristan pick to a Celts player? It would be your 3rd Celtic picked for a team you expect to advance.
DeleteI think he forgot how to play the game..... JK the Cavs have only 2 reliable players which makes navigating their series harder the longer it goes!! The 3rd highest Cav PAR average in the playoffs belongs to Kyle Korver and that's not even 15!
DeleteCoz this DTTF game is not about who you believe in, but how ballsy you can go against what you believe in :D
DeleteI'm saving all four of the Warriors big talents for the Finals: Durant, Curry, Klay, and Dray. This means as long as I still have Marcus Smart and Marc Morris, I'll be good for the Finals. I'd imagine Golden State winning in either 4 or 5 games. I'm in no particular hurry to pick Tristan Thompson, Kyle Korver, or the likes of the other Cavs. Love in Game 3 and LeBron James in the elimination game. Or, if Cleveland do end up getting through, LeBron in the Finals. I'm picking only Rockets in the West: Paul, Capela, Harden, Gordon, Ariza, and Anderson
DeleteAlso, I didn't change from my Tristan pick. I was never picking Tristan Thompson! It was Jaylen Brown all the way!
DeleteIf you go back to my "Steps to Navigate the Third Round", you will see that it is all there.
DeleteJust for accuracy purposes I should say I totally thought Tangent wrote this blog post instead of Taong & it got me all confused. No harm no foul & sorry for the confusion Tangent!
DeleteSo...it looks like the Cavs don't have enough weapons around LeBron this season. Maybe enough to beat other teams, but it looks like the Celtics are too good of a team. And that's without Kyrie and Hayward. Even with a great game by LeBron it wasn't enough. Anyway game3 is like an elimination game, and I will not wait to pick LeBron. I am also saving all of the Warriors, so I don't care to use him now. If the Cavs come back I will be in trouble anyway, no matter if I pick LeBron and Love in one order or another.
ReplyDeleteAnd tonight I will pick Harden. It is also like an elimination game for the Rockets, losing both at home would make it impossible for them. And Chris Paul plays at least at the same level away from home. In fact he has a better average on the road in this playoffs. If he can stay healthy I will pick him later.
Strong bets for next days, but I am not waiting on elimination when most of people will pick them. I would do if I was on the top of the standings, now I need something different
This year the Cavs did not focus on defense and was enamored by D’Antoni-style offense. Defense wins championships. Cavs really had no chance.
DeleteAt least Dubs do it with defense.
I agree. But in last years they also didn't defend well during the Regular Season, and they were much better during the Playoffs. I don't know what's the difference this year, as losing Kyrie should affect more their offense than their defense
DeleteThey also traded away their defensive stoppers for more three pointers.
DeleteI had hopes of them developing Shumpert to All-Defensive Team. What a waste.
these conf finals have been brutal for me.
ReplyDeleteG hill, cp3, tristan, capela.
Me betting against celtics and cavs biting me in the butt right now
Back from a two-day-trip and I see that this round doesn´t work for me. In the East no matter who one thinks might advance you have to start picking Celtics, as the Cavs have exactly two usable picks. Everybody else is a crapshoot. So in g1 I started at the top, and Rozier wasn´t that good. In g2 I didn´t dare pick the top performer of g1 Brown, so I got Tatum. Not good. Even worse, the Irving (and Hayward and Theis-)less Celtics are whooping James´ behind.
ReplyDeleteIn the West I had Gordon in g1, in what seemed to be a good pick until he got significantly better in g2. As did Tucker. As did pretty much everybody from the Rockets except Clint Capela who I had in g2. The good news is that the Warriors are on the way to the Finals but my picks are still not good.
I will pick Dirk for the time being until the playoffs resume in two months, sorry, in two days.
Doesn't seem like your analytics work if you're in 268th place lol
ReplyDeleteOh I’ve been lower before this time of year. Back when I ended up top10% percentile
DeleteBut I agree with you. Lol
Deletehaha good luck though!
DeleteTaong’s analytics are great. The place people are in right now means jack crap considering all the folks at the top don’t know how to play the game and will fall like rocks in early June.
DeleteYou following his analytics because it seems like you aren't doing well?
DeleteYou've used James and Love (Cavs) -Same with me
Paul and Capela (Rockets)- I used James, Capela and Gordon
Curry (Warriors) - Haven't used a Warrior
Horford, Smart, Tatum, Morris- Same with me
If I'm gonna fly like a rock in June then you should be too lol but i'll be in a better position since i'm top 20
LOL there’s no one in the Top 50 that matches your picking description, let alone Top 20 so you’re either a liar or you fell like a rock since you posted here yesterday. Either way I’m right & you’re just silly. I’m 13 pts away from 50th, which means I’m less than that away from you & I haven’t picked Harden yet soooooo see you in the rear view.
Deletelol you clearly didn't look at all. Wang16 bruh
DeleteBruh you picked Rozier way back on 4/24 & Brown back 5/13. You conveniently left them both out of your list of Celtics you had picked (meanwhile I had them both avail by comparison). Oh and I have Durant, Klay & Korver still available (you’ve picked em all) & you’re currently ranked #44 while I’m at #30. Taong’s picking analysis column works just fine. Feel free to comment again at the end of the Finals when you’re still behind me.
DeleteHey GOAT there you are at 62 & I finished at 16. Hit me up next year for a follow-up ass whooping.
DeleteReally Cavs should involve Love early. The way they did back in the Raptors series
ReplyDeleteIt's Eric Gordon for me today, maybe CP3 for game4 if healthy and they lose tonight. Probably also if they win, I need to save all of the Warriors for the Finals
ReplyDelete