Six Game Sixes

I had to review my Thursday's pick. I tried game theory by expanding on my case scenarios given my available players and probabilities of each team winning Game 6 and 7. To make the matrix simple, I eliminated the Warriors and the Clippers, because (1) I strongly believe the Clippers of all twelve teams will advance at this point, and (2) I already picked Stephen Curry. Here is how it looks...

The ones encircled are, for me, the Pacers' and Thunder's probability of winning Game 6. Indicated in the rows that follow are all the case scenarios. For Game 7, I had fixed it so that the pick comes from the best remaining of the visiting team. In this setting, it tells me I have to pick Kevin Durant (see highlighted cell).

I played around with the probabilities of winning, from 10% to 90% range for each team, but keeping the Thunder ahead of the Pacers in the percentage. I found out that the Thunder has to be ahead of the Pacers by +50% for this table to show that the better pick is Lance Stephenson. Anything below it (e.g. 10% vs 60%), it shows Kevin Durant.

The major factor here is Durant's PRA. That 40+ PRA is so much more than Stephenson's 25- PRA. It's a case of pick now, pay later.

For those who still have Paul George, I plugged him here and the value of picking a Pacer increased. The change is due to George's PRA of 39 which is much more than Stephenson's. So if you still have George, I recommend picking him over Durant.

For Fridays pick, walking the plank of elimination are the Nets, Mavs and Rockets (again), all playing at home. The top two players in each team are:

• Joe Johnson (26 PRA)
• Deron Williams (25)
• Monta Ellis (26)
• Dirk Nowitzki (24)
• Dwight Howard (43)
• James Harden (38)

If you still have Howard or Harden, pick a Rocket. If not, then your next option is Chandler Parsons's 28 PRA which is not an automatic pick when placed beside Nowitzki's and Ellis' PRA. Nowitzki finally got hot the last game and should be the same in an elimination game. Ellis, on the other hand, has been consistent since Game 2. With the Nets, you can never know as their PRAs fluctuate with each and every game, so might as well not risk that.

So again, if you have Howard or Harden, go pick them.

If not, pick among the Rockets and Mavs the team that you think will most likely lose in Game 6. And then choose Parsons or Nowitzki accordingly. If you cannot decide who'll win, then pick Nowitzki, so that you'll have Ellis or Parsons on Game 7 if necessary.

Here are my picks. A past MVP. And a near future MVP.

Doesn't get any colder than this.

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