We have a bit of clarity on the second round now that all matchups are decided and a few series started. Let's look at the best strategy for the early week, and also look ahead to how the schedule could dictate our strategy.
Monday
Philadelphia @ Boston [Series tied 0-0]
Phoenix @ Denver [Denver leads 1-0]
One series has started and the other has not. Conventional wisdom would say pick from the team down 0-1. This is not my suggestion in the slightest. Philadelphia is down Joel Embiid tonight. Without a healthy Embiid, it feels like Philadelphia is poised to continue their streak of making it to the second round, and no further. Meanwhile, there are still lots of questions with regards to Phoenix as they've only lost one road game so far, and can easily come back.
With Embiid doubtful, you have a rare opportunity to buy yourself some time with a Paul Reed pick. Reed looked productive in Embiid's absence in game 4 vs Brooklyn, dropping a 10-15-2 stat line in 32 minutes. This is an easy pick to pick a productive player who won't hurt your long-term game. However, there are still questions on if he can continue this production against Boston, or if they will match up with him better.
If you think Philadelphia is toast, you might want to start picking their bigger name players sooner. Philly shares game days with the Nuggets vs Suns series, which is loaded with star talent. You might need to pick the likes of Durant, Booker, Jokic, or Murray late in the series to get them while you can. In that sense, it might make sense to grab Tobias Harris, James Harden, or Tyrese Maxey in Game 1 and get them for increased production while Embiid sits. Tobias Harris lead with 25 points and 12 rebounds with Embiid out, and this could be a good spot for him. James Harden is also a strong option who could lead to offense with Embiid out.
If you would rather wait on Philadelphia and trust the process, you can always pick a Phoenix Sun. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are always great picks. Chris Paul is tempting but he really isn't exciting enough to pick over someone like Paul Reed who can be just as productive and will have nearly zero impact on your long-term game. I'll leave CP3 to prove me wrong tonight ;)
Tuesday
Miami @ NY Knicks [Miami leads 1-0]
LA Lakers @ Golden State [Series tied 0-0]
Game 1 was a disaster for the Knicks. Both teams are familiar with the road team winning game 1, as both did exactly this last round. Now its the Knicks turn to be on the receiving end. This feels like a good time to pick a New York Knick. Julius Randle is hurting and might not play this game. You could buy some time with an Obi Toppin pick, who played 31 minutes and scored an 18-8 line in Randle's absence. You could also pick RJ Barrett or Mitchell Robinson while they share an increase role in the paint without Randle.
I would not even touch Lakers vs Warriors. Give it a game, as we need to pick from it game 2 anyways.
Wednesday
Philadelphia @ Boston
Unlike Monday, we NEED to pick from Philadelphia vs Boston instead of simply having the option to. Monday's result will help inform the decision. If Embiid is back, you might want to pick him while you can. However, he might be best saved for the first home game. I would recommend looking at Harris, Harden, or Maxey here. Unless, the 76ers surprise us in game 1, in which case we might need to throw the strategy out and try again.
Thursday
LA Lakers @ Golden State
There is not much information here yet to make a call. If the Lakers are down 0-1, then I would suggest Anthony Davis. Getting him while healthy is always nice because it is never clear if it will last. However, if you feel confident in the Lakers you can pick a Warrior no matter what the series score. If the Warriors are down 0-1, there is a lot of reason to jump to believing in the Lakers. Picking a Warrior such as Curry, Wiggins, or Thompson could be the play. However, if you are confident in the Warriors, you can pick a Laker and trust your gut in spite of the series score.
Sweet breakdown.
ReplyDeleteI already penned CP3 for G2.
Wouldn’t change coz I’ve been burned twice already by changing lanes too much.
As for Lakers-Warriors, I think Warriors have this even if Lakers win G1. Picked AD, before he gets injured.
If Lakers win Game 1 Warriors aren’t winning the series
DeleteDurant in our league.Harden in my other league
ReplyDeleteI like Paul Reed I already picked Butler and bam so trying to settle down. And hoping to pick obi as well if Randle is out
ReplyDeletePR is def the pick if Embiid sits IMO
DeleteYeah. it looks like a safe route to pick Reed and Toppin if both Embiid and Randle are out. It buys time to see how series start/progresses.
ReplyDeleteOf course G1 was terrible for the Knicks. In today's basketball you simply can't win if you don't make any threes. Only Obi shot decently from outside
Switching to Caleb Martin after the news of Brunson and Randle playing, and Butler out for G2
DeleteGreat switch. I went with Caleb also.
DeleteExcellent write-up Tangent!!
ReplyDeleteWell, that went not as I hoped. Happy with the Reed pick, but Obi Toppin bit me in the behind, as Randle came back and wreaked havoc on the court. 1 PRA for Toppin (and 11 for Robinson who picked up two quick fouls at the start and took himself out of the game completely).
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, three higher seeds lose their first game at home, and the Nuggets are up 2-0 against the Suns who just might have lost Chris Paul.
Of course, that doesn´t mean much. Ask me, I am out of Curry and Thompson in both leagues, and the Warriors are still favorites for the conference finals in my eyes. AD can´t play like that for the whole series, can he?
It's rough I am hoping that smart doesn't play so I'll pick Derrick white since I am still not sure where this series is going
Delete