Four Game 1s, Three Upsets

Title says it all. It seems this round of the playoffs will make us play on our toes. This will cause a lot of fragmentation among us 'drivers', which I think is healthy for DTTF. Everything depends now on how each one of us make our picks. Luck will factor-in more now. Choose wrongly and you'll find yourself scraping the bench for picks in the succeeding rounds.

Fortunately there is still the Memphis Grizzlies to pick from. At least that will give us one more day before we decide on some gambles.

For Tuesday, I pick Marc Gasol.

Can the lower seeds sustain the stolen advantage? Or will they crumble and allow the higher seeds to grab wins on their turf? Let the debates begin!

18 comments:

  1. Four game 1's, two upsets. I've had the Spurs-Clippers winner advancing to the conference finals since the start, so not surprised by that one.

    Tonight, I'm with you in picking Marc Gasol. I need the extra day to figure things out with Atlanta vs. Washington. I hoped to pick Gasol at home, but I'm not ready to pick a Hawk, so Gasol it is. I think the Hawks will eventually win the series, but it won't come easy. Beal and Wall injuries will likely be the Wizard's downfall. But if the Wizards win tonight, I'm ready to flip the switch.

    For tomorrow, too soon to switch on the Cavs, and while Shumpert is getting extra looks with J.R. Smith out, I might need him later if the Cavs advance. If the Cavs are going to lose, I want to get LeBron and Irving picked this round, and only them. No Shumpert. The Rockets have Howard and Harden, and are deep after that. I've penciled in Howard for Wednesday and Harden for Friday, and the only thing that could change that is the Cavs falling down 0-2. Howard is good for any game. I like Harden in game 3. He did amazingly well on the road last year against Portland and this year against Dallas (trend!). That will give me 2 more games to see how the Cavs and Bulls series is shaking out, and I doubt the Rockets move on, as they got beat badly by the Clippers without Paul. Blake Griffin is just too much.

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    1. josh smith was awful. i think he was just the loss factor. the others were fine

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    2. James Harden was awful too (though he looked pretty good compared to that 19 PAR debacle two years ago against the Thunder), only getting a measly 37 PAR, thanks to an invisible 2nd quarter with no regular points, 9 turnovers and 3 3rd quarter fouls, luckily turnovers and fouls don't go against the scores but I doubt 37 will beat his elimination game number which means I took a losing pick thanks to his stunt with Chris Paul out. If Paul was playing, Harden would have been saved for later in the series. Instead thanks to his couldn't careless play he gives me a failing amount of PAR (<40) and I would be shocked (it would be a miracle for me) if he somehow does worse than than 2 other games, including the most important elimination game when everyone who hasn't picked him will use him. The idea I said yesterday, was to lean Clippers advance and with Paul out, take Harden (he only had 5% to boot), and although I could have seen the Rockets win game 1 and lose the series, hope for the Clippers to pull it out to make my pick really good. I got the win of the Clippers winning that game but without significant PAR support, it's still a (almost certain) losing cause as this wasn't anywhere close to the best performance of the series that No Paul made it look like it was going to be coming in and the biggest factor is when 30% or more have him later in the series and get more PAR like 45-50, with Paul on the court no less!

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  2. I used Marc Gasol in game 1 of round 2. Would like to use another Grizzly, but not much to choose from. Saving Z-Bo for home game & still have Conley. Have all players from Golden State, Wizards, Hawks, Cavs, & Houston. Clippers, I have only used Griffin.
    I'm strongly thinking of using a Hawk & if I do, leaning towards Milsap. Bad as I hate to, but want to TRY & keep remaining teams even as possible. Thoughts?

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    1. I used Rose from Bulls last night. Have everyone else from Bulls. Almost forgot...

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    2. If I had to use a hawk, I'd go with either carroll or korver. I still think ATL is going to win this series.

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    3. The Wizards were up 1-0 last year against the Pacers, 1-0 became 1-3 and eventually lost in 6, going 0-3 at home and have'nt won a 2nd round home game since 1982 (don't know the actual number of home games in that losing streak), so I am a little worried until they end that issue. Yet I still took a Hawk since all 5 starters average over 20 PAR and I like to split up the series after using Z Bo on Sunday. I got up to the 52nd percentile, finally over the meridian for the first time since before getting that 12 by Lowry.

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  3. It's only a series if a road team wins? We have three series right now. That makes picking harder, for in game 3 at the earliest have the "favorites" a chance to take homecourt back, if at all. Interesting.

    Had Rose last night, hoping for 35+ and getting exactly that, 35. Not too bad, although he missed a lot of his 26 shots. At least he dished out some assists in the final quarter. Well, I'll take what I can get, and I am up to 35 now in the second round. Yes, I hope this will be the second-to-last time I mention my forgotten pick (last time will be in the rundown of the second round).

    For tonight it will be a Hawk. As planned. They have 5 players with 24+ PRA in the first round, they lost home court and I am not entirely sure they will advance, though they might, a la Pacers last season. Still, I have learned the hard way that it doesn't necessarily pay to start picking at the third spot and saving the big guns too long. So I will go with Horford. Hope he will have another big game in a must-win against the as-yet-unbeaten Wizards.

    Day after tomorrow it will be some guy out west. But, not listening to myself from last paragraph, I will save H&H and start behind them. I hope Josh Smith can light it up a so-so game 1 in game 2, like he did in the Dallas series.

    I understand this is a risky pick. Both the Cavs and the Rockets had homecourt, lost it, might lose the series (I figure the Clips as the better team, and they won game 1 without Paul, and the Cavs obviously miss Love more than they might admit), and it might be tricky to pick all of the must-picks from both teams. But I trust they both teams will at least fight, not get swept, and at least one of the series will go 6. If they don't turn it all around completely.

    But how about these playoffs anyway. Did you ever stop and consider who we have still playing?
    In the West it's the favored Warrirors (last title 4 decades ago) against the Grizzlies (once in the conference finals) and the Rockets (only two titles 2 decades ago) against the Clippers (never in the conference finals). In the East it's the Hawks (about 45 years after their last conference finals) against the Wizards (only title nearly 4 decades ago) and the Cavs (the city, nay, the whole state hungry for any title for about 5 decades) against the Bulls (waiting since MJs retirement, finally healthy).

    If it wasn't for this silly game of DTTF I would have enjoyed the playoffs far less in the last years except 2011, because Dirk is usually out pretty soon. But this season I am really interested in all of these teams that don't usually play at these stages.

    No Spurs, no Lakers, no Mavs, no Thunder, no team that won the West in the last 20 years is still around. That is so interesting.

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    1. true.
      gs has the west but the elimination of the spurs really busted it open for them.

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    2. Warriors will win the whole thing there isn't anyone that can beat them this yr, the only teams that could have are Cavs with a fit Love/Varejao and OKC.

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  4. 30 from Crawford was nice only 5 off Rose who can get better than that.

    Houston didn't turn up yesterday in fact only Dwight came to play when it's usually the other way around. Harden was a joke and he is the reason why they lost, attempting 13 shots only. Lost out on MVP is the only reason I think. They underestimated the Clippers without CP3 and that game could be the one that actually ends up losing them this series.

    Bulls won their game aswell and this is why I didn't pick Rose, Cavs without Love no matter how bad his defence is, he's one of the best rebounders and gives them extra possessions this is without me mentioning his 3pt shooting which is also good for a big man. Cavs should still win the series but only if Lebron attacks more if this doesn't happen they will lose.

    For today I have either Z-Bo or Gasol, right now I'm thinking Z-Bo but I'm still unsure...

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  5. In now three of the four Round #2 series, the home team has failed to defend home court, changing the dynamics of these series entirely. Atlanta and Cleveland (and Houston) have must win Game #2 situations to avoid going down 0-2 after punting both home games. Houston showed that they cannot beat the Clippers even when LA was missing one of their two best players. Hard to take any thought of them moving on to Round #3 serious after that monumental failure.

    Speaking of monumental failures, my pick of Terrence Jones (8 PRA) was exactly that. Picked from the right team, but obviously the wrong player. Normally around a 20+ PRA player Terrence Jones started off shooting 1/6, and quickly ended up camped on the bench for much of the night playing only 16 minutes, despite not being in foul trouble at all. Jones was absolutely horrendous and I now have back to back horrible picks to start the second round. Not good at all!

    From the losing teams (Cleveland and Houston), they really showed how devoid of talent they really are other than 2 or 3 players in their respective playoff games. Only LeBron James (43 PRA), Kyrie Irving (38 PRA), and surprise contributor Iman Shumpert (24 PRA) were good for Cleveland. Only James Harden (37 PRA but capable of far higher), Dwight Howard (33 PRA), and Trevor Ariza (26 PRA) were worthwhile picking from Houston.


    Most every Clipper player was decent enough, including Blake Griffin's 53 PRA monster effort. Unfortunately though they won, and Houston looks like garbage. Can't see how the Rockets move on to the next round after watching them play that horrendously facing a team at home that is missing one of its two best players. Feel free to pick from the Houston Rockets roster.

    It is hard to call the pick of the night. Blake obviously had the best score, but from losing teams LeBron (43 PRA) and Kyrie Irving (38 PRA) are capable of far more. Won't really be able to assess this until you find out if Cleveland moves on or gets eliminated. For those picking Derrick Rose for 35 PRA, that might have been the pick of the night since he was near the best Cleveland players, and he could always get hurt given his track record. You can never be too sure how long Rose is going to go without getting hurt.

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  6. For tonight, Atlanta must win. Another home loss would be catastrophic for any chance they have of moving on to the next round. Washington isn't even a good road team (only 20-24 so far this season on the road). Atlanta was 38-7 @ home and you would think with everything on the line tonight, they will at least win at home in Game #2 and extend this series to at least a Game #5. If not, start picking Hawks.

    In the other series, Memphis looks entirely overwhelmed. Rumor has it that Mike Conley will return to the Grizzlies tonight. How good he will be, or how effective he will be coming off face surgery is anyone's guess. I certainly would not pick him tonight until I see him in action. Still, even with Mike Conley back, Memphis faces a huge uphill battle playing the Warriors in Golden State, where they have only lost 2 games all year. If Conley's return improves the Grizzlies at all, you most likely won't notice until the series heads back to Memphis.

    Saving Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol for home games in this series, so I will pick the only other player that went past the 20+ PRA threshold in Game #1, Tony Allen of the Grizzlies. Hoping for another 20+ PRA effort out of Tony Allen tonight, and an Atlanta win. If Atlanta doesn't not win, time to entirely rethink the plan as it stands right now. However I truly believe the Memphis vs. GSW series will be done long before the Washington vs. Atlanta series will be done, so I am picking the viable Memphis players first and saving the other series for later.

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  7. Breaking News: John Wall is out tonight (wrist) (Rotoworld)

    FWIW: Ramon Sessions to start at PG for Washington (Rotoworld + Rotowire)

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  8. I hope the 2% who picked Wall are from the 85-99th percentile so they would drop a few spots. Flipped a coin between Ariza and Smith yesterday and picked Josh Smith and it stunk pretty bad. Picked a Hawk today because I am saving Gasol and Conley (if he intends to play) in G3 and 4.

    Conley will play today. Interested on how he performs with his injury

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  9. Last night, my choices: rose ( for same reason as posted here), Matt barnes and austin rivers (no cp). All did well, but I went with rose. The latters were great filler picks had I went with either or.

    Today my choices were carrol, otto porter ( whi has been doin real well this postseason and anither goos filler pick) I woulda gone with session had I knew wall was out. I went with carrol.
    So far these secind rounds have been good to me, meeting my min of at least 25 pts a night for the secind round.
    Sat duncan 39. Sun gortat 26
    70 percentile. 530

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  10. BREAKING NEWS! BREAKING NEWS! The Grizzlies have won Game #2, tying the series at 1-1 and doing something I did not think any visiting team would do all playoffs, going into GS and winning! AKA I believe GS will win it all and I don't see anyone even taking them to 7. Now the Grizzlies have gained homecourt advantage! Upset OR just 1 game regardless of a home loss and GS will still win the series? Now it sounds like I'm making the Grizzlies look bad but it's just that GS has been so phenomenal especially at home that it's a surprise when someone goes in there are wins (just the 3rd home loss in 45 home games). If the Grizzlies played in the East they'd easily be in the Finals and be playing this series then.

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