Over-Analyzing

I think I was over-analyzing Saturday's pick. I was weighing so many factors (don't let me start where), but I decided -- when faced with a predicament, I can only do two things:

1. Take the low risk with high reward.
2. If the result is undesirable, minimize damage.

In short, take your pick already, and if it fails, suck it up Princess!


Sunday's pick is easy, even though it looks a little complex at first.

The once 0-2 Bulls and Rockets won their respective Game 3s. I am not picking from them for Sunday's Game 4. If Bulls lose, it will be Joakim Noah for Game 5. If Rockets lose, James Harden. If both lose, that's okay; they play Game 5 on separate dates.

The Raptors are down 1-2. Not picking from them too. If Raptors lose Game 4, then it will be my remaining Raptor DeMar DeRozan on Game 5. If they win, I'll see how Game 5 fares before picking in Game 6.

The Raptors and Rockets play Game 5 on same date Wednesday. If both teams lose Game 4, then I'll pick Harden on Game 5 and leave out DeRozan. If Raptors lose Game 5, then I lose DeRozan and so be it.

The Warriors are down 1-2. No matter who wins Game 4, I believe the Clippers have this series. So in Game 4, I pick Steph. 


I realize I have not recommended any picks in this post. Since we all have different circumstances, what I advise is this: Decide which team for you has the lowest chance to survive Round 1, then pick the best available player you have.

Good luck!


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37 comments:

  1. David Lee said Blake Griffin has been dominating him this series, but that will change Sunday. I'm sure he will go out and have a big game but honestly it seems like deandre and Blake make it to hard on him. Should I save curry for an elimination game?

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    1. Jackson has hinted at perhaps starting Green over Lee in game 4. Stay tuned.

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    2. I don't see a need for saving Curry. Pick him while you can. Game 5 and Game 6 is on the same day as Thunder vs. Grizzlies. You many need those picks for Durant, Westbrook, or any of the top 3 Grizzlies not picked yet.

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    3. Excellent point I'm going with Curry then

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    4. if you think warriors are going through i would pick curry i think i may go that way myself. i picked lee for his 25 he sat the whole 3rd because of them going short. i think that may happen again because it changed the game. also the logjam starts happening now so keeping the stars for elimination games is sometimes good but other times it gets you in a mess and you end up missing out on some like i think 2yrs ago when spurs got knocked out many missed picking tony and duncan.

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  2. See, that´s what´s so hard with DTTF. And so very frustrating. You can gamble and predict only for so long, in the end you have to pick. And it depends so much on timing.

    For the Rockets I was choosing between Harden and Howard for game 2. I picked Harden and Howard went off like crazy. For game 3 I picked Howard. Harden goes nuts.
    I got 65 out of them. Had I switched them I would have gotten 99. That´s a 34 point turnaround. Add Monta Ellis poor 14 from day 2 and the whole campaign is down the drain already. Sigh.

    So while it looks like Dirk would have been a good choice for tonight I went with Kemba Walker. Hopefully he at least outperforms Al Jefferson, that would be nice. Tomorrow it´s Curry.

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  3. DTTF is all about luck and about 10% is yourself knowing match ups, bogey teams,certain players and how they perform against teams. i wouldn't worry about picking a player and them giving you a poor game, too much of your emotion in this game is heartbreaking so just play it for fun but don't get too attached trying to win and you'll probably find you end up doing better.

    harden was lights out last yr and i ended up picking him when he got 15pra then howard had a scrub game for some. this yr i pick harden when he gets 50pra, there was nothing i did different in choosing him yesterday then i did last yr both after poor games yet this yr he got me the 50.

    you have to pick a bobcat because the schedule is bad after this, you won't want to be picking bobcat players when there's thunder,griz,warriors etc playing on the same day. i think kemba is the right choice for you if you haven't picked al jeff don't bother now its a major risk because of his injury got worse last game.

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    1. this comments to you alex

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    2. Yeah, I thought so :)

      As an interesting sidenote, after I had to chose between Walker and Jefferson and picking Walker Jefferson promptly went a set a new franchise playoffbest in points in the first quarter. Just like Howard did after I picked Harden :D

      In the end Walker was the 4th best Bobcat to pick, sitting out the blowout. Ah well.

      I don´t play this game to win, I play it for fun. That doesn´t change the fact that I really like to whine about bad luck in the picks. Just see my comments in this blog last season.

      I still like the playoffs and this stupid little game, or else I wouldn´t still play it. Curry is still on for me tonight.

      By the way, I am sitting in the 55th percentile. Just wait and see if I can´t go all the way up to 80 before this is all over.

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  4. anyone watching hawks and pacers it still looks like hawks will win the series pacers have showed nothing this game. i was going to pick west this game but missed the deadline.

    it was Dirk or Ellis for me so i decided to go Ellis. want to use Dirk in a elimination. as for this day i think i may go Curry aswell but i'll see.

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  5. WOW! WHAT A END TO THE MAVS GAME. TAONG I'll give you credit man. You believed in your team and it's payed off. I went with dirk who had an okay 28 PRA. If Mavs win game 4 this series will officially be over

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  6. I took Marc Gosal for tonight, plenty of games in this series to get randolph and conley in later, because I'm done with GS players and will not be taking LAC this round. Have no interest in any Bull players, no not joakim(what has he done for anyone lately?) Maybe a WAS player later on...Looking at Demar Rozon for tomorrow. saving my HOU players for the next round BAM :)

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    1. Houston's not moving on. Blazers are clearly the better team. Blazers in 5. I would advise you take a rocket.

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    2. I agree... I was being sarcastic.. with my BAM :) Though, just because you are clearly the best team doesn't mean you will move on..... Some might say that SA is 'clearly' the better team... but they are down 2 games to 1.... and THAT series just got interesting :)

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    3. spurs and mavs is historically close they always go atleast 6-7 series, they know each other well and really there's no favourite in that series. spurs any other team would be probably 3 zip right about now. so i wouldn't really use that series as a example

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    4. If there is no favorite in that series then it would be reflected in people, some in this blog, not only suggesting to but picking players from those two teams... but regardless a lot of people took Dirk tonight and even suggested to take him. WHY? I agree with you(what I said is that "some" might say that SA is clearly the favorite) and that is why I have held out on those two teams, to let it play out. Because like you said, more than likely, we got a lot more games to go in that one..... :)

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    5. Mavs not out of the water yet. Vince's three is for naught if they lose Game 4. Spurs are really tough to beat. It will take everyone's best effort. No time to relax nor celebrate.

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  7. Went with Dirk today. He had a good day shooting the ball but missed two jumpers in the final two minutes. Monta was excellent though but how bout VC eh?! Going with a Warrior tomorrow but will check first as to who will win OKC/MEM.

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    1. And missed FTs too. There's still hope for the underdogs.

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  8. Randolph and Conley combine for less than 20PRA in the first half...

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    1. Griz let Reggie go Miller on them

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    2. SO glad I took Marc Gasol... :)

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  9. What a game.... Thunder UP !!!!
    ..... If you don't know yet I'm a huge OKC fan....
    But I took Marc Gasol tonight... Was such a gut wrenching game to NEED the Thunder to win and rooting for Gasol to get as many PRA as possible and lose.... it ALL worked out in the end...
    ....Toughest pick of the contest for me to watch lol

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  10. Even better was to get a higher PRA than 9 higher percentage picked players... !!! #coldpick

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  11. Well, today was disaster averted for the most part. Indiana and OKC both took Game 4 and now have taken back home court advantage. Now that the games are done, I can firmly make my pick for Sunday. My choices are between David Lee, Klay Thompson, Kyle Lowry and Joakim Noah. I'm having a tough time reading the Clippers secondary players. Lee could be good but might not play as much. In that case Thomspon might make a nice selection, but I'm not sure I can trust him after getting me a 6 PRA last year (it still stings). Joakim Noah seems to make sense, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bulls win again, and even if they don't I think he might survive to see a Game 6 (and even if he doesn't I could live with that). So the guy I really like is Kyle Lowry. With Mavericks-Spurs Game 5 and 6 falling on the same day as the Raptors, (along with Trail Blazers and Rockets which I'll talk about later), I won't have time to pick Lowry later. So now's the time. The Portland-Houston game is super important for me tomorrow. I've put a huge investment in the Blazers, and a Rockets win would be devastating. A 2-2 series might force me to go Aldridge. We'll see how it all plays out on Sunday!

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  12. I took Klay Thompson with my first pick this year and got 34 out of him...I don't see Joakim doing anything, and won't even be mad if I never use him.(he's really not on my radar).... David Lee only got me a 21 this year, my worst PRA so far. I used up my GS players and the LAC I'm saving for the next round.... Lowry is on my radar, but I'm looking to take Demar Rozon Sunday. I had Aldridge for the 66rpa earlier and still don't put it past HOU to win this series.. Looking to use Kemba Walker Monday(he won't bomb two games in a row) and I'm looking for Mike Conly to bounce back for me on Tuesday...Though I will be rooting for the Thunder to WIN...Thunder up!!!

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  13. Or I will take Nana when he comes back in a vengeance on Tuesday !!

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  14. Guys... who would you take? Curry or Noah? I'm thinking Noah will have a monster game because Nene is out, might be due for a triple double game or his biggest PRA for the playoffs?

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    1. Or Curry because this is basically a must win game for his team?

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    2. Hey dragonballz, Curry coz they really need a win. And even if they do, they are still not the fave to win series.

      Noah will indeed play better without Nene. But the absence of Nene almost spells a loss, hence a chance for Bulls to win series.

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    3. hey spiderman...curry was right on the money!

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  15. sorry guys i'm trying to pick my player for the tonight and when i pick it says "period has already locked" !! anyone with the same problem?

    Matteo

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    1. Matteo, yep it seems there is a problem. Many in the leagues are complaining about it. I tried picking with a dummy account on mobile, and it just exits without a selection.

      No one is sure when it will be fixed, but just make sure to come back and make the pick, but not later than 1 hour before game start.

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    2. Ok was fixed, probably a glitch of the game. Curry is my pick for tonight. One of the easiest pick considering that is a must win game for the warriors and even if they win they won't go to the semis. I'm happy for the wins of pacers and thunder..as i wrote yesterday i bet on them to go through and i don't pick their players,saving them for the next rounds. Then it will pay off for me.
      Vince Carter buzzer was outstanding, that was really a great game. Spurs are still the favourites, and i still predict their win in 7..But will be a great effort against these mavericks, and IF they go down 3-1 then will be so hard for them to come back..in that case i'll pick a spurs.

      Matteo

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  16. Do I go hot with the crowd, or?
    .....I took Klay Thompson with my first pick this year and got 34 out of him..
    ......I don't see Joakim doing anything, and won't even be mad if I never use him.(he's really not on my radar as a consistand 30plus pra guy)....
    ..... I used up my GS players and the LAC I'm saving for the next round....
    .....Lowry is on my radar, but I'm looking to take Demar Rozon today.
    .....
    ..... I had Aldridge for the 66rpa earlier and still don't put it past HOU to win this series..
    .... Looking to use Kemba Walker Monday(he won't bomb two games in a row) and I'm looking for Mike Conly to bounce back for me on Tuesday...
    .........
    .........What a game.... Thunder UP !!!!
    ..... If you don't know yet I'm a huge OKC fan....
    But I took Marc Gasol last night... Was such a gut wrenching game to NEED the Thunder to win and rooting for Gasol to get as many PRA as possible and lose.... it ALL worked out in the end...
    ....Toughest pick of the contest for me to watch lol

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    1. I almost would not be upset not to get the two HOT guys from HOU picked....
      .... I would almost rather take my chances holding out on them winning the series and ...
      .....I mean if I get a 30 plus pra from some other players I'm not really losing out, right? (but there is a possible 40 plus from each of them) ...and then again you take a chance of not getting 30... those two are NOT consistent ...
      .....
      It would be nice to have those HOU players to pick for the SAS series. Oops I mean DAL(sorry Taong) lol

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