Three-Sided Coin Anyone?

Hear ye! Hear ye! We have here an invention from the City of Melbourne! Coins that have, wait for it... THREE SIDES! Get your three-sided coin.. Yes! You heard that right!  THREE-SIDED COIN! It will get you out of situations where old boring traditional coins can't help! Torn between three lovers? Flip a THREE-SIDED COIN! Torn between three picks??? THREE-SIDED COIN! Get them while they're hot... What?... There is already a three-sided DICE in America?... Frakkin' A!


So on Thursday instead of pitting two teams against each other in a playoff game. We're here now pitting three teams against each other in our fantasy game. It's the Thunder vs Pacers vs Warriors, all locked inside an arena filled with grizzly bears, hawks and.. err sharp clippers! Who will come out alive to fight another day? Our pick goes to the one with the least fight in them. Who shall it be?

The Thunder, man, tough loss. When I saw that play feed (a missed shot, an offensive rebound and a made layup all within the 0.0-second mark), I became a statue. The petrified type. I do not want Kevin Durant to receive the MVP award watching the Semis from his couch, because I saw it happened with 2007 MVP Dirk Nowitzki bounced in Round 1, and it was awkward! So do we pick Kevin Durant (or Russell Westbrook) on Thursday facing elimination? Or will the Thunder win Game 6 on the road, and be the favourite to win Game 7 at home?

The Warriors, unfortunately played on the day the Sterling banning came. So they too face elimination on Thursday. Do we pick Stephen Curry (or David Lee or Klay Thompson)? Or will the Warriors protect home court at Game 6, and then try to win Game 7 in L.A.?

The Pacers, yeah the dysfunctional one. Time to pick Paul George (or Lance Stephenson) as many of us already pre-picked? Or will they get lucky in Atlanta and in Game 7?

Who among these three teams get bounced on Thursday? Don't just pick the best available player in the whole lot. Milk out an extra 10% of our brains and get to it. Then pick your best available player from your chosen team. Hopefully, you'll guess correctly and if you're even luckier, the teams you've chosen to win Game 6 would win Game 7 as well. If not, then you're in deep.

For me, with all three teams: the Thunder are the least likely to lose Game 6 (and if they win, more likely to win Game 7); the Pacers are the most likely to lose Game 6; and the Warriors are middle-ground (but most likely to lose Game 7). So if I have Paul George, I'd pick him; but I don't. Lance Stephenson will be okay but his PRA is much much lower than the average of [Durant, Curry, George] who most people will pick. So my next in my list are the Warriors, but I already picked Stephen Curry. Next in line is Klay Thompson and David Lee, but their PRAs are comparative to Lance's.

So I have Kevin Durant (40+ PRA) and Russell Westbrook (40- PRA). But is it worth it to get their 40 PRA now and risk losing them (and the other stars in the other teams) in the next round? 40 PRA is yummy, but I think 30 PRA will do just fine. It's not a one-day race anyway. Besides, with 4 OTs already (and all 3 Grizzlies win by OT only), I am betting a cent from my dollar that of all three teams, the Thunder can push this a little bit further.

Alrighty then, my tentative pick is Klay Thompson.


I so wanted to convince myself to pick Durant at the end of this post. Flipped three-sided coin. Nah. End of post.


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37 comments:

  1. I've made the same choice before reading your post.

    But still thinking of Westbrook. Memphis can really win this series, the more that at some point they had 20-points lead...

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    1. I think we'll regret not picking them if they lose. But we'll rejoice if we are the few ones who'll have them in the next round.

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  2. Man...I'm between Paul George and Kevin Durant. Help me Taong! I feel you on not choosing Durant, but he's destined to have a huge game and continue the series right?!? I don't think I could mentally passing on both KD and Westbrook if the Thunder happen to lose in Memphis. However, I agree with you, if they win they'll also win Game 7 at home in OKC and I won't pick a Thunder player in Game 7 because of that thought...but it's Thursday I'm torn with

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    1. Think what is worse... If you have all the Pacers and Thunders, picking Durant you will still have Westbrook-Ibaka with decents PRA. Picking George, you are left with Stephenson-West...
      What do you prefer for next round???

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    2. Case scenario using George, Durant and Westbrook only.

      Case 1: G6 George, Thunder lose. +40 now, -80 onward. Net -40.

      Case 2: G6 George, Thunder win. G7 Durant, Thunder lose. +80 now, -40 onward. Net +40.

      Case 3: G6 George, Thunder win. G7 Durant, Thunder win. +80 now, +40 onward. Net +120.

      Case 4: G6 Durant, Thunder lose, Pacers lose. +40 now, -80 onward. Net -40.

      Case 5: G6 Durant, Thunder lose. Pacers win. G7 George. +80 now, -40 onward. Net +40.

      Case 6: G6 Durant, Thunder win, Pacers lose. G7 Westbrook. +80 now, -40 onward. Net +40.

      Case 7: G6 Durant. Thunder win, Pacers win. G7 Westbrook, Pacers lose. +80 now, -40 onward. Net +40.

      Case 8: G6 Durant. Thunder win, Pacers win. G7 Westbrook, Pacers win. +80 now, +40 onward. Net +120.

      Case 9: G6 Durant. Thunder win, Pacers win. G7 George, Thunder lose. +80 now, -40 onward. Net +40.

      Case 10: G6 Durant. Thunder win, Pacers win. G7 George, Thunder win. +80 now, +40 onward. Net +120.

      Eliminate the case/s you think is impossible (prolly nothing eliminated). Then add all G6 George nets. Add all G6 Durant nets. Compare.

      Pick Durant, if no case eliminated.

      Note that you can insert in other 30-PRA players, but you know this gets more complicated ;)

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    3. Correction: average, not add.

      Result:
      G6 George, 40 PRA.
      G6 Durant, 51 PRA.

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    4. Dang Taong.... you broke that wayyy down..
      .....Nice job... :)

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    5. Jerry, i have re-done this with probabilities involved. Pick George.

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  3. And I would like to ask you something. When nba.com refresh the points?
    I was looking but I couldn't find any answer.

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    1. I have no idea. It seems like a few hours after midnight New York time. On weekends it takes longer.

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  4. Here's my take guys. I think Warriors will win game 6 and force game 7. Hawks will finish off the Pacers at home. The Thunder- Memphis game is tricky. At this point, I don't think I can trust Thunder anymore, they had a tough loss last night, and I don't know how they can regroup at Memphis in a tough place to play. Grizzlies will be out to close them, and so my pick goes to the MVP, I expect him to lay it all out, and try to help his team steal one on the road. Even if OKC wins, I will still have Westbrook, Ibaka, for next rounds, but just can't risk not picking Durant, especially since the game is in Memphis.

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    1. Um.... Don't tell anyone...
      ..........But I feel you on this my friend...
      My first instinct was to ride it out and hope for the best..
      Now I'm thinking of the same thing.... How can we go wrong with a good 40+ from KD :)

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  5. Mmmmm... I think the question is looking forward to next round...
    I have the warrior Thompson, Westbrook/Ibaka/Gasol in the OKC-MEM and no picks on IND-ATL... So, as I will need players for next round, I won't bet on Thompson nor on OKC-MEM... It doesn't matter who will pass... I'll have saved at least a player for next round... The only series where I can pick without losing possible coming picks is IND-ATL and as the pacers are 2-3 I'll go with Paul George.

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  6. I'll take my 3 sided coin now... Thank you...
    .....
    I agree with you Taong with the order of most likely to lose, IND-GS-OKC.....and I agree with everyone taking PG in this scenario ...
    ....
    I like he Klay Thompson pic...
    ....
    Looking at the percentage of players being taken on that day I am a shocked, actually....
    .....
    Jeff Teague.....13 %
    Paul Millsap.....9
    R. Westbrook....7
    Mike Conley 7
    Blake Griffin 6
    Chris Paul 5
    and
    Kevin Durant 2% Really?
    .....
    ..... I'm absolutely shocked that only 2% are taking him, I figured more would be on the KD and Westbrook(7%) bandwagon......

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    1. Many people already took him (i got a 32 PRA :-(( )and others are confidents that OKC will pass...

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    2. It hasn't updated yet. Pretty soon that 2% will skyrocket.

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    3. Ohh you are correct Tangent... my bad!!!! lol
      ....well, of to work I'll go... I'll see the updates this evening :/

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  7. Well.... it just updated..
    ...
    Jeff Teague.....13 % now 6
    Paul Millsap.....9 now 5
    R. Westbrook....7 now 5
    Mike Conley 7 now 4
    Blake Griffin 6 now 4
    Chris Paul 5 now 3
    and
    Kevin Durant 2% same ?????
    ....
    What I believe is that the people who really didn't know how to play took them all at the beginning and now the people who know how to strategically use their players... and actually taking a stand.. like you and I Tangent.... we are all playing the odds..

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  8. Yesterday was a DTTF disaster. I put my chips on OKC and passed on Noah to pick Randolph, who put up 30 PRA and won compared to 31 PRA from Noah who lost. That 1 PRA is lost forever :(. Did I make an error? Absolutely. Would I do it again in similar circumstances? Absolutely. Not sure why so many people are doubting the Grizzlies. This is a world beater team who, with the same group of 3 lesser-known stars, has taken down the #1 San Antonio Spurs, and last year the LA Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder (sans Westbrook mind you). If I didn't have Paul George, picking Russell Westbrook would definitely be the way I would go. But because I do have Paul George, who can get just as much PRA as Westbrook or Durant (just typically a little bit less), I'm going to bet it all on the Thunder. Basically, I have no other choice. Go Thunder! Be my Thunder buddies!

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    1. Yeah... my chips were all in with OKC too!
      ....I would do it all the same too!! no doubt with Randolph.
      You know I'm not doubting MEM just I'm a BIG OKC fan and I tried to hang with them.... Now i'm thinking of going with KD next time.... shoot :/..... This is tearing me up... lol

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  9. What a night! I picked chris paul to not risk the eventuality of a thursday with paul griffin durant westbrook and george..Clippers won but i'm still happy with my choice..on thursday it's paul george time..i can't think that the MVP KD goes out in the first round against the grizzlies..I still bet on the thunder and i don't pick KD and RW..they'll win game 6 and then game 7 in OKC. George for me on thursday.

    Matteo

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  10. Not sure why the public is still riding with OKC. I'm taking Westbrook here. Grizzlies are battle tested when it comes to the playoffs (look at last year's series vs. LAC). They won game 5 and went onto win game 6 then, and I expect the same result. The Thunder are a Reggie Jackson bail out away from having already lost this series in 5 games. Pick your OKC players now, people!

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    1. I hear you JK.... MEM is battle tested and won't stop! lol
      .....I'm thinking of going OKC.. I'm still hoping OKC does it though.... I'm a Thunder fan! ugh :)

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    2. I feel your pain, imawake. I'm a Nets fan and they are getting worked at the moment.

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  11. It´s strange this year around. You can´t believe in any team outside the Heat. I picked Randolph who started hot with 17 PRA in 1st quarter, ended up with 30 PRA in an overtime game. Gasol also had 30. So had Miller. Noah, who I snubbed, had 31. Westbrook had a triple double.

    It´s not necessarily that I believe OKC will turn it still around but I won´t my Paul George pick anyway. 40+ from George, a win by the Hawks (38 wins in regular season, so close to the second round against the Wizards) and screw that other series.

    Funny what happened to Durant in the overtime, when the referee stopped him from making the second FT to tie the game 27 seconds from the end. Remindes me of the trick the Thunder tried to pull on Dirk in 2011 when he had two shots to tie game 3 or 4 and they spilled water so Dirk had to wait for a full minute for his second shot. He still made it and the Mavs won. KD didn´t and the Thunder lost.

    Karma is a b*tch.

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    1. Very true.

      where is the like button. I wanna mash it! :)

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    2. lol.... Damn.. get real Alex :)
      .....Thunder UP haha

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    3. Haha, I bear no grudge, imawake. Just bringing it up for fun.

      I am at peace with the NBA after that fine spring in 2011 :)

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  12. This Thunder fan is torn....
    ....Like I had told Tangent before I was going to stick with my guns and go with my last MEM player and take Conley and hope OKC can pull it out two in a row...
    .....
    Um........ damn... I love all the input above....
    ....some are staying the course hoping OKC wins to help them out with their strategy and others are going all in with KD and Westbrook....... and I don't blame them at all. Not one iota .
    ...
    ...All I can say is that I truly have not made my mind out..
    I'm going with James Harden tonight... I'm hoping he will get a 40+ .....
    out

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    1. If KD is still at 2% tomorrow, go KD - it's the cold pick ;)

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    2. THAT is funny Tangent....
      ..... You know I like to go cold.. :)

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  13. Wow..... Howard 10, Harden 15....at half...
    .......................AWESOME :/

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  14. I would say, if you think OKC has a better chance to win Games 6 & 7 than IND does to win Game 6 (like me), you should pick Paul George (like me). If not, you should pick Durant or Westbrook for Thursday and George/the other Thunder Saturday, depending on who wins.

    If you are lucky enough to still have Curry, definitely pick him instead.

    Also, now we got Nets, Mavs, and possibly Rockets down 2-3 for Friday...another three-sided coin???

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  15. I have used Paul George Monday for 44pra....
    ....Have already used Curry..
    ....I'm either going to go Conley or KD tomorrow.. we will see... :)

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  16. To think I'm hoping OKC comes back so I save KD and Westbrook..
    ....
    All the while HOU comes back and wins their series and I use up Howard and Harden.....
    ............Go figure lol

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  17. Houston did win today. But I still don't see them winning the series. I have Parsons from Houston left. Friday Mavs play and I already took dirk. No one else worth taking. Nets have no one. I do except Raptors to win. So Houston vs Portland left so I'm going Parsons Friday.

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