Lesser Of Three Evils

All the games on this date have road teams up 1-0: the Hawks, Nets and Wizards. That would have been a conundrum if not for the Nets already favored to win their series. So for today, pick a Raptor. It's a safer bet than picking a Pacer or a Bull.

DeMar DeRozan. He is the franchise player and typical of Raptors stars (Carter, McGrady), he stunk up his first playoff game. One thing though about these Raptors stars, they do bounce back. The Raptors have talked about giving DeRozan better looks, and they have two days off to practice that. Look for him in the PRA of higher 20s, even 30.

Kyle Lowry. He is the true star of late, and he is out to prove he is worth more than a trade fodder. The Nets should not be changing their plan just yet, so expect Lowry to continue to roam free. He gets my pick.


Like the Mavs' Nowitzki and Ellis, DeRozan has been a focal point of the opponent's defense, and they have yet to have a big game. Bounce-back games usually are really BIG games; the problem is we can't be sure when that (or if that ever) happens. The potential high PRA is tempting, but sometimes it may be a safe move to wait for them to have a non-poor game before they get picked.

As for the other games, the risk of picking John Wall or Paul Millsap is relatively small for a winning team, but I wouldn't test rough waters right now.

Not a lot of risk-taking in Round 1. We up the ante next round though.


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31 comments:

  1. Dude again same pick as me! That makes for all 4!!

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    1. With all these early complexities, it won't be for long.

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    2. I also fully agree with your assessment of all potential picks & why Lowry is best. It's almost as if I wrote the damn thing! Haha, I also think you & I may end up with the next 2 picks after this the same. From that point it may differ. So fun so far.

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  2. Ha.. I have Kyle lowry.... for now :) (nice blog)

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    1. Thanks. That pick used to be Wall. Then Wall won, changed to DeRozan. Then changed to Lowry.

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  3. I'm going with Derozen. I don't want to use him on the road. He will forsure he looking to bounce back.

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    1. He looked so shaky in Game 1 though. I agree he'll be better in Game 2, but not convinced he'll have shaken the cobwebs entirely & Brooklyn is sure to expect him to play better & may clamp down even more to prevent it.

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    2. going with DeRozan as well. he plays better at home and for sure, the Nets will D up on Lowry and will do a better job of crashing the boards. It might be the playoff jitters as to why he shot so poorly

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    3. DeRozan in Game 5 at home, perhaps?

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    4. I just don't see Lowry replicating the same performance. I may change my mind tho :)

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    5. I've had DeRozan in Game 5 since before the playoffs started. He's just sitting there waiting :). I do agree he's a pick for at home.

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  4. Not sure I want to pick a Raptor yet. They were just awful in game 1, and it's to be expected with their inexperience. Brooklyn still just barely scraped out a win. The most convincing team of the 6 in game 1 here was Washington. In my mind, Chicago are as likely as Toronto to be eliminated. Considering Noah for a bounceback game, but I could easily change my mind and go with DeRozan. We'll see how I feel in the morning.

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    1. Come to think of it, DPOYs play great coming off an award. Marc Gasol did it last year. Noah will be fantastic, although I can't bet against the Bulls just yet.

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    2. I completely believe the Nets are going to win this series, have from the get go. I say def pick a Raptor, either Lowry or DeRozan.

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    3. Brooklyn also missed 20 threes in a row. Safe to say that won't happen again. Nets in 5.

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  5. I always use shot attempts at a gauge for bounce back potential. I'm thinking DeRozan can do better than 3-13, and the healthy shot attempts and getting to the free throw line bode well. Never shy away from the bounce back, as while it occasionally doesn't work out, it more often does. I've used it for many years now and it rarely does me wrong. Two years ago in the first round Pau Gasol got a PRA of 7 in Game 6 and was publicly called out. My thought was he couldn't do any worse, and I liked him to have a bounce back. He responded with 46 for me. I've never doubted bounce back games ever since. I also don't like DeRozan that much in round 2 when he'll likely be shadowed by LeBron, so what better time than now. I'm also pretty convinced by the Wizards, so Noah is an option, but since he's the only Bull worth a first round pick while there are two on the Raptors, it makes the decision a bit easier to make.

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    1. 25+ PRA for sure for both Raptors, maybe 30+ for one or both. Can't fault either pick

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  6. Ha... I just noticed on the Poll to the right....
    ....NOBODY pays attention to the experts...
    I LIKE that...
    ......................I like reading every ones ideas and strategies...
    Keep it up guys.. and good luck...
    Thunder UP !!!

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    1. It's a 3 year-old poll. I kept it intact so everyone will see.

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  7. I fell into the blowout trap...
    ....Stephen started out slow.. but put up 33 pra before they benched him in the 4th quarter.... imagine if I had him for another full 12 minutes.. ugh!!!! so far that is my lowest PRA of the contest...

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  8. As Atlanta won, i leave this serie till third match. So the question is betting on CHI-WAS or TOR-BRO... As i'm quite sure Nets will pass and the other serie is impredictible, my pick is on Toronto: DeMar DeRozan.

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    1. Yeah, risk in a Raptor pick less than a Bulls pick.

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  9. Yesterday Conley was not bad. Tonight it´s Kyle Lowry. This time I am leaning toward the series with the most expected outcome, and I guess it´s BKN over TOR, so I pick a Raptor. My gut that gave me Monta Ellis and Mike Conley now wants Lowry over DeRozan. Ah, why not?

    For tomorrow I am looking into this bounceback thing everyone is loving. I sure hope Harden bounces better than Howard.If LMA goes for more than 50 again I will buy a hat just so I can eat it.

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  10. Is Valanciunas a good pick ?

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    1. Valanciunas would be a good pick only if you think he will outperform DeRozan and Lowry. And since his numbers this season don't suggest that will happen that often, I'd stick to one of the top guys tonight if you want to go Raptor.

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  11. LMA was incredible. 2 for 2 on 3-pointers in a road game after only hitting 3 triples all season...come on...

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  12. I was considering Valanciunas... but I will say that I'm not going to take him... (I do like the cold picks though) :)

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    1. Ah not this time, not the cold pick this date.

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    2. And then Valanciunas balling like possessed

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    3. Yup..... I didn't take him though... I went with John Wall tonight...

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