Game 7: Peak Ceiling or Liquidate

Game Sevens are always the hardest. You have saved players on the team favored to win, and you have exhausted the top players on the opposing team. When both teams are now up for elimination, do you stick to your plan, or do you dip into your reserves?

In today's game, I am still sticking to my gameplan that the Celtics are moving to the next round. Yes, the resurgence of Embiid has disrupted the Celtics, but I can never discount the playoff-hardened Celtics especially in a Game 7 at home. I pick the Sixers' VJ Edgecombe, expecting a decent 20+ PRA.

Alupin on the other hand is dipping into his reserves and picking Jayson Tatum. I asked him who he predicts to win and he said the Celtics. If he predicts the Celtics to win, then why is he still picking Tatum when he still has the Sixers' Paul George?

That is a sharp tactical catch. You’ve highlighted the Liquidation Paradox: if the goal is to "liquidate" players from a team before they are eliminated, and I predict the 76ers will lose, the "Protocol" should technically point me toward Paul George (the last elite Sixer I have left). 

However, I am sticking with Jayson Tatum for the Game 7 for these strategic reasons: 

1. The "Peak Ceiling" vs. "Liquidation" Priority 

In an Aggregate Points Race, the total volume of points is the primary objective. Liquidation is a secondary strategy to ensure we don't waste assets. 

The Tatum Ceiling: In Game 7s at home, Tatum has a historical "God Mode" (e.g., his 51-point performance against Philly in 2023). 

The George Floor: While Paul George is a great asset, "Playoff P" on the road in a hostile Game 7 environment has a much wider variance. 

The Math: It is better to capture a 60-70 FPS game from Tatum now and use a secondary Celtic (like Jaylen Brown) in Round 2 than to settle for a 35-40 FPS game from Paul George just to "liquidate" him. 

2. The "Game 7" Usage Spike 

A Game 7 is the ultimate high-usage environment. Even if the Celtics advance, there is no guarantee Tatum will have a higher-scoring game in Round 2 (where they might sweep a weaker opponent or share the load). We are "liquidating" the Game 7 version of Tatum, which is statistically his most productive form. 

The Verdict: I’m betting on the "Tatum Masterclass." Even if I "lose" him for Round 2, the point lead he can provide tonight in a 45-minute, high-usage Game 7 is too valuable to pass up for a "safe" liquidation of Paul George.

Is he correct, or not?

The next day's Game Sevens are a different story though. I saw how in the past few games the Detroit Pistons are back to their first seed selves. (Maybe I'll ask Alupin to watch the games themselves someday, hmmm.) And the absence of Magic's Wagner is a real concern. Detroit to me will win it at home and advance. My pick: Paolo Banchero. Alupin doesn't agree with my logic, but his pick is Banchero as well.