The BLOG IS BACK BABY!
I'm a bit unsure who else will be contributing write-ups during these playoffs, so please email me if you're familiar with the "Pick One Daily" format & interested in writing some blog entries: jerryricochet@gmail.com
In addition to analyzing the strategies involved with this specialized post-season fantasy game, one of the main purposes of this blog is to spark conversations within the comments so please participate in that regard! Feel free to ask questions & describe your own personal strategies within the comment sections of the posts throughout the playoff. I'll be responding as often as I can & will be encouraging others to do the same.
For those completely new to the format, the basic premise is that you pick one NBA player each calendar day that there's at least one playoff game from the beginning of the playoffs through the end of the Finals. You can't ever pick that player again after you pick them and you receive points for their stats for that single performance so there's a lot of strategy that goes into predicting which teams will advance and saving the players on those teams for later.
QUICK LINKS
$25 Buy-In League also through FPS: Email ValuePicker11@hotmail.com and Ken will get you the official invitation! League link is: FPS Private Money League
Free Public League w/ Prizes: Free Public League
Free Spreadsheet Google Drive League that includes the play-in beginning Tuesday (4/15)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FULL DESCRIPTION OF WAYS TO PLAY
Most of us are also in a private league (w/DK scoring & round multipliers) via the Fantasy Postseason website with a $25 buy-in. Top 5+ finishers get payouts (depending on how many total players we have) & there are likely 45+ of us. If you're interested in joining, please shoot Ken an email (ValuePicker11@hotmail.com). This league DOES NOT include the play-in so your first day of picking will be Saturday, April 19.
There's also a public league that Fantasy Postseason provides for free where you can play against all players worldwide & win prizes, etc. I always just mirror my private league picks to most simply compete in both. Once that link is live I'll post it below.
Lastly, our DTTF google spreadsheet league has simple PRA (points, rebounds, assists) scoring & DOES INCLUDE the PLAY-IN tournament picks that start on Tuesday night (4/15): Google Drive League Link
*Simply add your name yourself to the very left column of the Playoff Central tab if it's not currently listed & begin to enter your picks next to your name for the appropriate days. If you're unable to add or access your name on that sheet, please let us know in the comments below what your pic is for the first day (in advance of that game's lock time) as well as your email address & we'll get you sorted.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STEPS TO NAVIGATE THE FIRST ROUND
Step 1: Identify teams you expect to lose
These strategies all become a bit clearer & more relevant once the Play-In Tournament has completed, but for the sake of those playing in our spreadsheet league that start picking Tuesday with the Play-In, I'll start with an example that applies to that. The most fitting example probably being the Mavs against the Kings. Although this isn't a sure win for the Kings, the Mavs haven't developed any consistency after being torn apart by injuries and terrible trades (you know the one). Anthony Davis is a PRA monster that you'll wish you had the points from if the Mavs lose this and don't advance so he feels like a clear pick to me. He's also often injured so its always good pick him early. Even if the Mavs do manage to beat the Kings, I imagine them losing to the loser of the Warriors/Grizz in the quest for that 8th seed (which also puts whoever wins up against a pretty sure loss in the first round against the Thunder). So for the spreadsheet league, I believe picking a player such as AD is what a lot of us will do.
Looking past the Play-In, picking someone whatever teams end up facing the Thunder, Celtics or Cavs seems wise as I see no scenario where any of those 3 teams lose in the first round. Also I can't imagine the Pistons beating the Knicks so also picking someone like Cade Cunningham very early seems wise.
For time-sake, I'll skip discussing the other series, but definitely look into them in detail via the bracket I've pasted below in this post!
Step 2: Identify the top players from teams you expect to lose
Obviously identify your "favorite to lose" in all the other series as well & make a mental or even physical list of the key players you'll need to choose from those losing teams. Narrow down your MUST PICKS & tweak them accordingly if any series start going the opposite of what you'd planned.
Step 3: Watch for days with less games than others in the first round
Look ahead on the playoff schedule & find days with only 2 games, then be sure to plan your pics wisely with those "limited" days in mind.
Step 4: Consider saving a few studs for their home or elimination games
Some players perform better at home or with their backs against the wall. You can almost surely count on the main stars to play high minutes & perform somewhat strongly when facing elimination. I find that many streaky shooters or guys who get most of their PRA from points often perform better at home. If you want to research home vs away stats for certain players historically you can find all that info, but I typically just go with my gut, which bring us to the final point!
Step 5: Above everything else, trust your gut
If you're like me & believe in "bounce-back" games for talented players that simply didn't produce as well as normal in their previous outing, then that & other player/team specific matchup feelings, etc can make for valuable gut-shot calls that will allow you to differ from the popular pick & separate your picking plan a bit from others you're competing with. TRUST YOUR GUT!
**What teams do you believe will survive the Play-In Tournament & will you be participating in the DTTF Google Drive League, Fantasy Postseason League or both?**
Welcome back everyone!
ReplyDeleteGood to see Luka's image pushed down. I still love him, but seeing him here always remind me of the trade whenever I look at the NBA news feed here (which I check daily).
Mavs 1.3% chance of drafting Flagg. And away team in the play-in. Lol we suck! MFFL!
That Luka trade decision was the stupidest idea ever. What the hell were the Mavs thinking?!
DeleteI can go on and on about GM Nico's reasoning (it's all on the net), but I just wanna move on with my sports life after it was obliterated overnight.
DeleteRIP Mavs season :(
DeleteLooking forward to next season.
DeleteGreat to see you run this blog back Jerry!
ReplyDeleteAt the first glance, Cade pick is obvious for Saturday. Among the 4 games on Saturday, Knicks seem to be the heaviest favorite, all 3 other series can go either way in my book.
For Sunday, it seems logical to me to pick a Grizzlies guy, especially if they clinch the 8-seed rather than the 7th. They have 3 must pick guys in Ja, JJJ and Bane, so starting with one of them seems to be crucial.
Totally agree with your pick assessments, but I’m not sure Ja and the Grizz will make the playoffs. I have Trae or Ja as the best picks here today for the Google Drive league. Seems more likely than not that Orlando and GS take care of business today. But yea, the Grizz can maybe beat the winner of Mavs / Kings, but I’m not entirely sure.
DeleteTough loss for Grizzlies man, sigh. If they lose to the winner of Mavs/Kings, nothing changes for me strategically on Sunday. I'd pick one of Sabonis/DDR/LaVine as they are probably all must-pick too, or I'm gonna pick AD as he's too injury prone for me to delay that pick.
DeleteYeah man, the Mavs are a ticking clock. If they make it to a second play-in they’re likely to be disposed of. And if somehow AD wills them into the playoffs, OKC will sweep them. They just won’t be able to compete on a high enough level without Kyrie and didn’t have enough time with a healthy AD to find their rhythm.
DeleteAfter looking over the schedule in detail, I realized that OKC games are on the days where we don't want to touch the other series. So I changed my mind and decided to save Morant/Bane/AD for tuesday and thursday.
DeleteSo my picks for Saturday and Sunday will be as follows:
Saturday -> Cade
Sunday -> Banchero
cade banchero
DeleteCade / Banchero makes sense, but we should wait and see how the 8 seeds firm up for Sunday. Banchero also has a history of looking overwhelmed early in a playoff series. They could get blown out of the water Game 1 so I'm unsure if I'm truly willing to risk him right out of the gates in what seems to me could be a poor performance.
DeleteHi everyone! Great to see you all one more year. Excited to see what this NBA Playoffs will bring. Last season I thoght the Celtics were favorite and they delivered. I think this one is much more uncertain, with several teams capable of winning the title. Even as a Knicks fan I wouldn't count them as one of them, and I even expect a tough series against a Pistons team that has beaten us 3 of 4 times during the regular season. Sure, Playoffs are a different thing. Let's see how Thibs burns his players out once more xD
ReplyDeleteI’m confident the Knicks will handle the Pistons. Towns seems to have turned a corner and become much more dominant with this new squad. Duren just isn’t ready. And of course Brunson and Hart have the “dog in them” even with Cade knocking on that door he’s not there yet.
DeleteYeah, I expect the Knicks to advance, though not so easily as some people think. But I don't see them beating the Celtics in a 7 game series in the second round, nor the Cavs or Thunder. That's why I said I wouldn't count them among the favorites. I still like the team better than last season, OG and Mikal give them more depth and different capable scorers. But I still don't think it's enough. And my main concern comes from the bench. I hope Thibs proves me wrong
DeleteThibs gonna play 7 guys in the playoffs as he usually does. So that eliminates roster depth.
DeleteI root for Brunson, but yeah they won't get past both Cavs and Celtics this year.
Yeah, I'd be surprised to see anyone coming off the bench other than McBride and Achiuwa/Robinson depending on the matchup. Maybe Cam Payne if Brunson does have some rest. I'd love to see a different coach next season, the potential is there
DeleteIf they wanna keep JB happy, Thibs need to stay. If Thibs is out, new coach will probably diminish or remove dad assistant coach Brunson. These are the people (plus pres Leon Rose) are the reasons JB went to Knicks (plus because he wants to be the main PG). I actually like Thibs, although that's an unpopular opinion.
DeleteI like Thibs as well... in some ways. Facing the Celtics in the next round is simply unlucky for them. I think they could have stood to upset the Bucks or Cavs, but I just can't see it happening against a healthy Boston. 2nd round will likely be a healthy does of Knicks picks for me that I know will be getting a lot of minutes.
DeleteMaybe I am biased, as I am used to watch European basketball. But I find Thibs (and some other NBA coaches) really poor on offensive tactics. Of course keeping your stars is important too. But you can always find solutions
Delete