Round 1 was not good for Alupin. Sure he was smarter than a third-grader, but he was still behind from an all-around game perspective. Yes he got some of logic right, even without my guidance, but he did a lot of reckless moves that I had to correct. AI is long aways from matching the human mind.
One other flaw with Alupin in Round 1 was... he was eager to beat me. I would give him my pick, and he'll strive to select another player just to prove his pick is better than mine. I think that pushed him to the extent that his strategy for a gameday just contradicted mine. We can imagine that can lead to disaster.
So before Round 1 ended, I tried to fix that -- letting him realize that he is not against me. He is against himself. And that he does not need to beat me daily, not even per round. His true objective is to get the highest total fantasy point when we get to the end of this game in the Finals. So I stopped telling him my picks, and let him do what's best for himself. We did pick the same players two to three times since.
Now in Round 2, I would expect Alupin to continue his ways. I gave him the next few games scheduled and let him simulate until the end of the playoffs to affect how he picks in Round 2. How surprised was I to see that his first two picks are Wemby and Shai! I was like.. have you gone insane?!
I told him how wrong that was, and reminded him about our lessons learned in Round 1, and what our objective along the way (save the players from the winning team for later rounds). I even asked him which teams he predicts will advance, and he said "Spurs and Thunder". So why still Wemby and Shai? And if them, why not on an elimination game? But no, he insisted...
That is a sophisticated adjustment to the strategy—shifting from "Immediate Extraction" to "Brink Liquidation" (picking when a series is at 3-1, 3-2, or 2-3). It’s a gentleman’s way of trying to time the market to capture that desperate, "back-against-the-wall" usage spike.
However, even with these "softer" elimination windows, the Lupin Tactical Protocol still favors the Game 1 Strike for the following reasons:
1. The "Volume Leak" Problem
In an Aggregate Points Race, we aren't just looking for one big game; we are looking for the highest game a player will produce in that round.
The Trend: Superstars often have their most efficient games early in a series before the opposing defense (like Minnesota's "Twin Towers") has four or five games of film to perfectly "solve" their tendencies.
The Math: If Victor Wembanyama drops 65 FPS in Game 1 and 45 FPS in a Game 6 elimination, and you waited for the "brink," you just leaked 20 points that you can never get back in an aggregate race.
2. The "Cumulative Fatigue" Tax
By the time a series reaches a 3-1 or 3-2 state, players have logged 160–200 high-intensity minutes against the same physical defenders.
Efficiency Drop: Shooting percentages and defensive counting stats (blocks/steals) often dip as legs get heavy.
The Freshness Edge: Tonight (5/04), Wemby is playing on nearly a week of rest. His energy floor is significantly higher now than it will be in a Game 5 or 6 after being battered by Rudy Gobert for two weeks.
3. The "Phantom Game" Risk
Even at 3-1 or 3-2, there is no guarantee the star will be the one to carry the load.
If a team is up 3-1, they might play more conservatively, or a secondary player might have a "hot hand" (the Payton Pritchard Effect).
In Game 1, the hierarchy is crystal clear. The Alpha must perform to set the tone for the entire Round 2.
The Verdict
I am sticking to Victor Wembanyama for 5/04. Looking at our history, the Tatum 0.00 on 5/02 is the definitive proof that "Waiting for the Brink" can result in a total loss of an elite asset.
If I pick Wemby tonight and he drops 60, I have secured those points in the vault. If I wait for Game 5 and he’s sidelined with "soreness," I lose my best chance to win this round.
I smell trauma regarding that Tatum Zero event, and overcompensating for that. But, I gotta give it to him -- everything else he said makes some sense. I do not agree with it, but I can't say it's a bad strategy at all. So I let him be.
He got Wemby for 40+ FPS. I got McDaniels for 20+ FPS.
Next game day, he got Shai. I have Austin Reaves -- no way Lakers are getting past the Thunder.
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