Trust the stats: Start play-in(g) well-prepared

Welcome to this blog in 2022! It is a pleasure to be back, write here and share some of my thoughts with you. Last year (not)Guaranteed was my main series of posts on this blog and it was fun, but this year I want to share with you something different.

I announce to you that this year I will start a series called Trust the stats, in which I will show you some statistics that can be useful in choosing strategy for your picks, especially when you have doubts. Obviously statistics is a nice tool, which can be helpful, but it is based on what has already happened and as we all know: the future is unknown. So I encourage you to trust your gut more (just like Jerry in his first post this year), but maybe this series will open you new opportunities to look at your strategy differently, at least in some cases.

I will use different stats pages (like nba.com) to show you some interesting things, but also FiveThirtyEigth, which makes predictions (using some advanced statistical models) for every game and more. Although I have less time than last year, I will try to provide posts once a week, but I will not promise that ;)

So let's start with the first post!

Tuesday

On Tuesday we have both 7-8 match-ups in play-in, which means we have to pick a player from teams which can lose and still make the playoffs (they will be playing at home in a decisive game).

I looked at FiveThirtyEight for predictions and they are similiar to my (and probably most of us) gut. For now Nets and Timberwolves are the favourite to win their games as they play home and are probably better teams. Moreover, if we look at predictions of making the playoffs, both of those teams have about 90% chances, which is why I don't recommend picking any of their players.

Clippers, despite having just about 35% chance of winning a game against Wolves, will be a big favorite against the winner of the Pelicans/Spurs if they lose their first game. That is why their chance of making the playoffs is predicted as 83%, which is nice.

Cavaliers still are predicted to be in the playoffs as they are given 64% to play at least 4 more games after the play-in tournament, but since All-Star break they lost 15 out of 24 games. This is a bad sign and this is why they fell into the play-in tournament after being in the top 6 for not a short period of time. Most of us doubted we would see Cleveland in the top 10 of the East, but they are still the worst team out of these four and they have the smallest chance of winning any series (if they make the playoffs).

This is why I recommend picking Cavs' player. What is even more enticing, Jarrett Allen will not play in this game (and is apparently 50-50 for another game if Cavs lose) and that means more possessions for other players. I looked deeper in numbers and this is what I saw:

If Jarrett Allen is on the court/ off the court (per 36 minutes):

D. Garland: 22.4/ 21.4 pts, 3.6/ 3.0 rebs, 9.3/ 8.0 ast, 35.3/ 32.4 PRA (-2.9)

C. LeVert*: 16.3/ 16.6 pts, 1.7/ 4.3 rebs, 4.3/ 4.9 ast, 22.3/ 25.8 PRA (+3.5)

E. Mobley: 14.6/ 17.3 pts, 8.3/ 9.4 rebs, 2.6/ 2.9 ast, 25.5/ 29.6  PRA (+4.1)

* just played 4 games with Allen

So it's interesting that Garland is having better numbers with Allen on court... this is why I'm going with Mobley who contribute more without Allen (it's against the grain ;)) and I'm thinking about picking Garland in the second game as I expect Atlanta to win two games. Analytics give them a 36% chance of them making the playoffs, but if they win against Hornets and face Cleveland, in my opinion they will be slight favorites despite playing on the road.

 

Wednesday

Four teams that have to win two consecutive games to make the playoffs... analytics give three of them less than 20% of chance to make playoffs and only Hawks' chances are 36%. So the first strategy is to pick the best player and don't think about it anymore as this might be the last chance to pick this player.

But you might overthink this as always ;) but you can also trust the stats as Hawks are given over 70% chance to win their game and Pelicans are favorites against Spurs, so Hornets and Spurs players are recommended. I think about LaMelo Ball or Dejounte Murray, but if you are afraid Hawks and Pelicans lose, don't hesistate to take Trae Young or Brandon Ingram.

Friday

Last two games of the play-in tournament and we have to choose one player from four teams. You can now think of who you want to pick in every scenario, but you can also wait for predictions. I will put them here after Wednesday's games just for your information and maybe it will be helpful.

NEW!

After two days every prediction was correct and all home teams won their games. Now we have two games left: Pelicans @ Clippers in which Clippers are given about 70% chance to win and Hawks @ Cavaliers which is almost 50-50 (two statistical models predict differently). Of course you can take the best player available as this is just one game to lose and end the season, but you can also pick a player from teams you expect to lose.

Thanks for your time to read this post :) Feel free to discuss in comments upcoming games, your picks and strategy. And whenever you read it, have a nice day!