The BLOG IS BACK! And the 2022 Playoffs are looking to be among the wildest in recent memory!
As always, I'll be doing my best over this first week to help answer any questions, provide picking advice & ultimately get a consistent posting schedule planned out moving forward.
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WAYS TO PLAY
Firstly, our DTTF google spreadsheet league is now up & running and we're INCLUDING the PLAY-IN tournament pics that start tomorrow night (4/12): Google Drive League
*Simply add your name yourself to the very left column of the Playoff Central tab if it's not currently listed & begin to enter your picks next to your name for the appropriate days. If you're unable to add or access your name on that sheet, please let us know in the comments below what your pic is for today/tomorrow (in advance of that game's lock time) as well as your email address & we'll get you sorted.
Also, here's a link to the public league that Fantasy Postseason hosts for this year's daily pick game so please make sure you all join up right away as there are prizes you can win, etc: Fantasy Postseason League
Several of us are also in a private league via the Fantasy Postseason site with a $25 buy-in. Top 5 finishers get payout & there are currently around 25 of us. If you're interested in joining, please shoot me an email (jerryricochet@gmail.com) by end of day Friday, April 15th.
*General Note: DTTF spreadsheet league is PRA (points-rebounds-assists) while Fantasy Postseason counts other stats PRABS as well as some other bonuses & such. Our private FPS league adheres to Draftkings scoring + multiplier bonuses for each round of the playoffs.
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STEPS TO NAVIGATE THE FIRST ROUND
Step 1: Identify teams you expect to lose
These strategies all become a bit clearer & more relevant once the Play-In Tournament has completed, but for the sake of those playing in our spreadsheet league that start picking tomorrow with the Play-In, I'll start with an example that applies to that. The most obvious being the Cavs up against the Nets. The Cavs have at least 2 major PRA guys in Garland & LeVert (3/4 if you count Markkanen & Mobley) & nobody expects them to beat the Nets in Brooklyn. Even if they do and also somehow manage to make it into the 8th seed against the Heat they'll still lose. Plus if they make it that far Jarret Allen will likely be back which adds even another pick into the mix so there's no harm in picking a safe PRA (points, rebounds, assists) guy on the Cavs tomorrow IMO.
Looking past the Play-In, picking someone on whoever ends up 8th in the West facing the Suns seems like a wise pick as that team will almost certainly lose the series. The other series I'm eyeing as a near certain loss would be the Bulls up against the Bucks. Sure the Bulls started off the season well & Lavine & DeRozan can both get hot, but they just don't have a worthy surrounding cast and there's no way they'll beat the defending champs in the 1st Round. Plus add Vucevic into the mix & they have 3 "must-pick" PRA guys so I'm looking their way for sure.
For time-sake, I'll skip discussing the other series, but definitely look into them in detail via the bracket I've pasted below in this post!
Step 2: Identify the top players from teams you expect to lose
Obviously identify your "favorite to lose" in all the other series as well & make a mental or even physical list of the key players you'll need to choose from those losing teams. Narrow down your MUST PICKS & tweak them accordingly if any series start going the opposite of what you'd planned.
Step 3: Watch for days with less games than others in the first round
Look ahead on the playoff schedule & find days with only 2 games, then be sure to plan your pics wisely with those "limited" days in mind.
Step 4: Consider saving a few studs for their home or elimination games
Some players perform better at home or with their backs against the wall. You can almost surely count on the main stars to play high minutes & perform somewhat strongly when facing elimination. I find that many streaky shooters or guys who get most of their PRA from points often perform better at home. If you want to research home vs away stats for certain players historically you can find all that info, but I typically just go with my gut, which bring us to the final point!
Step 5: Above everything else, trust your gut
If you're like me & believe in "bounce-back" games for talented players that simply didn't produce as well as normal in their previous outing, then that & other player/team specific matchup feelings, etc can make for valuable gut-shot calls that will allow you to differ from the popular pick & separate your picking plan a bit from others you're competing with. TRUST YOUR GUT!
awesome guide, Jerry!
ReplyDeletelesgo Mavs!
Play-ins, I wanna see Clippers, Spurs, Nets, Hawks
DeleteThanks Taong! You're the OG that started it all. I just work here!
DeleteThank you for keeping this going! It's going to be an interesting year with no LeBron
ReplyDeleteYeah, no Lebron makes it a lot of fun. The play field just seems more level especially with both KD & Steph's teams not being as dominant as they've been in the past. Giannis, Embiid & Jokic have been great, but will their teams come along for the ride? Hopefully my Suns will have something to say about that!
DeleteI belive Nets will be #7 and I think Hawks will sneak at #8. In West I belive Wolves and Clippers will advance, but I'm not sure about their seedings ;)
ReplyDeleteI have my doubts about the Wolves. I'm likely picking Towns tonight on Google Drive, but hey, I may be wrong. Even if they do make it they're getting bounced in the first round and I can just concentrate on other series with my Towns pick gone.
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