Game 2: Plan Plan Plan

Two road wins. Two players picked from the winner. Davis, then Oladipo. So...

... yeah! LOL!

I thought I can take it easy in Round 1, but as you can see this puts me in a very odd situation. It seems like the basketball gods did not want me to just sit back and relax ... you know, like the Cavs' defense :D

So, okay game on!

I wanna show you my scratch pad earlier...

Haha! Pardon my handwriting (my choice of career doesn't really need paper 99% of the time). But this is how it all worked in the old days, you know. Drafting, friend's house, buddies, notebook, pen, big sheets, marker... and beer ;) Anyways...

I listed out all the game days until Game 4. That is the worst case scenario where all games will sweep, 4-0. Of course they won't. But it is easier to:
  • assume it, then it does not happen, you still have some tier-2 players available
... than,
  • not assume it, then it happens, now you lost chance to pick a tier-1 player
The probabilities say those sweeps will never happen, but if you've followed this blog for a long time, you know sweeps do happen and people do lose chances of picking certain big players.

[I actually started explaining each choice and erasure, but I hit the backspace button on them three paragraphs in. I think it's best to explain those in the comments. Just ask specific ones if you are curious, hehe! But I should mention that the question marks are there because I still think the Blazers and Cavaliers will advance to Round 2.]

Anyways I should explain at least briefly why all the picks for Game 2s:
  • Goran Dragic. I really wanted to use Aldridge at home in Texas, so I am forcing a Heat pick here. This is a bad matchup for Whiteside (12 minutes, no Embiid no Whiteside), and Olynyk does not seem to be a guy who will have another 35-PRA game. Dragic was average in Game 1, but I know he needs to elevate his game in Game 2.
  • John Wall. Now that I saw Game 1 and found that the Raptors mean business this year, it's time to use him before he gets hurt. Noone here wants anyone to get hurt, but injuries do happen when you least expect them. Besides, it's time to mine the Wizards for picks so I can have slack to pick Beal later.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns. He was quiet offensively in Game 1 and with only 9 attempts. I know Coach Thibs will adapt. C'mon, it's just Clint Capela! (If Clint reads this, look at him go 7 blocks and 20 rebounds haha!)

Good luck with your picks!


  1. Your picks and mine so far really show the differences in strategies and the risk/reward for each.

    My first two picks came from GS/SA and HOU/MIN, what appear to be the safest two series. I got a total of 38PRA, but the teams I picked from lost.

    Your first two picks came from POR/NO and CLE/IND, two closer series. You got a total of 92PRA, but the teams you picked from won.

    Picking closer series at the start can net better performances, but with a slightly greater risk of losing a player for next round. I'd still take your situation though. That's a lot of extra PRA there.

    For tonight, I can't pick another Spur, because..... ugh they are so boring for PRA. I've also got Goran Dragic. I originally planned for Hassan Whiteside, but I'm not going to be that bold going for the bounce back. No idea how many minutes he will play.

    For Tuesday, I've got Bradley Beal. He has played well in Toronto this season. I've got Wall ready for Game 3 as my current plan.

    For Wednesday, I had Victor Oladipo planned, but that's out now. Utah vs. OKC still feels too early to pick from. So, I'm going to pick Karl-Anthony Towns. Wanted him for a home game, but sometimes you need to move a pick up a day in the series you feel confident about in order to allow more time to see games from the ones you aren't.

  2. I have also gone the safest series by now, but obviously my results have been pretty bad. This is very long yet though.

    Nice handwritting Taong xD I have been doing similar thing, but with a computer document. Easier to push delete button, which I did several times. This is coming interesting after first games :-)

    I'd also like to pick Aldridge at home, but by now I will play it safe just in case we have some sweeps and I need to pick some stars earlier than expected. There's always time to pick others later as you said. And Aldridge can't do so bad tonight. Can he?

    I agree with Tangent for next two days. I also plan to pick Beal on tuesday, and no way that I am picking from the other series on this day. And totally agree about wednesday, after Cavs lost game1. In my case I have Butler left to pick from the T-wolves. If needed there's some other good picks for later (Teague, Gibson...), but same as I wrote about Aldridge, use main weapons while you can. Later we may have too many stars to pick from on the same day.

    1. "And Aldridge can't do so bad tonight. Can he?"

      He can. He will. Spurs are a wasteland :P

      Just kidding. Aldridge might be solid. We just need to reduce expectations for any member of the Spurs right now, because the team they are facing are just miles ahead of them.

    2. I was trying to be ironic. I know he can, and he will probably be xD But I guess there's no other rival he will face later. Only maybe they will compete better at home, but if I don't want to wait for game3...

    3. I'm ready to get drunk home alone & shout at Lamarcus Aldridge on my TV tonight. Mostly cursing at him for playing awful so bring it on Lemarcus!!!!

    4. Well, that went better for LaMarcus than anyone could have ever imagined. And here I am starting at the 17PRA he got me :S

    5. The key was they were wearing white uniforms, so he thought he was in Texas :p

  3. As always you recommend nice picks :) and I really like it despite taking other players ;)

    I took Beal on the first day and that choice wasn't bad, but I expected a little bit more from him. Wall recently returned from injury so I thought Beal will be busy on offense, but Wall stole the show with many missed lay-ups :p, but generally nice game for his fantasy owners ;)

    Davis was a beast and that was safe bet, but I think that Pelicans can win the series and I will wait to pick Davis in elmination game (or a little bit earlier). For now I consider taking Dame/CJ in the next game, but I'm not sure it's time for them...

    Well, the second day was worse, Jimmy Butler should have played better :p only 23 FP from him... well, at least KAT who, I thought, will struggle in his playoff debut, wasn't better ;)

    My pick for today is Aldridge :) time for him to play good game :) Dragic was my second thought, but I'm not sure he will be better in G2 than he was in G1, so I will wait before taking him ;)

    Tommorow is difficult day to choose a player - Wall is nice option, but if I took Beal, it would be dangerous because Wizards still can win the series... what do you think about taking two players from the same team in G1&G2? For me, it's dangerous, because for example in my case, if DeRozan gets injured and Wizards win series, I'll be in bad position for the second round... the same problem with KAT because I took Butler... what do you think about it?

    Thanks for good job you do with recommending players :) and I'm waiting for your answer :)

    1. I agree with the not wanting to take two from the same team approach. I usually try to take players from five different teams the opening five days. However, it depends on the circumstances. Wednesday is jammed with two questionable series in UTAH/OKC and IND/CLE. So, because Houston vs. Minnesota looks like a safe bet for Houston advancing, I would just take a second player from Minnesota.

    2. Ditto. Round1 is 16 teams, 8 losers, 12-ish possible tier-1 players, but onle a few gamedays. Try to save for later.

  4. I’ve got your answer. It’s completely safe to pick two players from MIN straight away because they will 100% lose the series. The only time not to pick multiple from the same team is if they stand a chance to win. Heck you have 3 MIN guys you can pick even if for some reason the series drags (Teague) but you’re good to rock KAT and Butler ASAP

    1. Ok, I think it's very probable Wolves will lose, but Wizards?

    2. Honestly, Derozan & Lowry didn't play great and they still won. Homecourt advantage, great season record. Raptors have got this series.

    3. I will pick Beal, but I didn't pick a Wizard yet. And yes, I would doubt about picking a second one. I am not counting on the Wizards as eliminated yet. They are always a tough team to beat in the Playoffs. As long as Wall is healthy, I still prefer to wait. I think it will be a long series

  5. Taong your picks were great! It’s honestly no worry that the teams won. They’ll likely both lose their series (NO a toss up, but IND will ultimately lose). As Tangent said the PRA you racked up is great. I’m somewhere in the middle of you guys with a great Wall pick & a crappy Towns pick. Should have stuck with my initial picks that you illustrated in your video example! LOL those picks have killed it so far

  6. I am still not sure if Oladipo was a good pick. The Cavs suddenly look very beatable to me. Even Mike Tyson lost eventually :)

    Aldridge in Texas, that means Dragic on Monday. Just like pretty much everybody else. I first had Whiteside pencilled in, but you convinced me with that Embiid thing. Normally that means monstergame for Whiteside.

  7. The Cavs may lose a series, but not in the first round on the King's watch

  8. Come to think of it...

    Miami and Coach Spoelstra are creatures of system. They seldom deviate from their gameplan (e.g. Mavs Finals 2011). Game 1 I think their initial plan is to stick with their system of halfcourt basketball and Whiteside as a big part of that and to exploit Embiid’s absence. They knew Sixers will run but they wanted to slow the game down.

    They did deviate from that and by sitting Whiteside, let the Sixers dictate the pace. It’s possible they’ll go back to roots. They just to improve transition D.

  9. Normally I always split picks but with only 2 games today, I want to savw Aldridge for home (no other Spur looks desirable) and the same holds true for the rest of the Heat I took Olynyk in both contests after he looked great in G1 in a blowout loss so maybe the 76ers will go for the shut EVERYONE else down method again.

  10. Miami is up big. Why...... why did I trust the process?

  11. Father Prime!!! Who would have thought! Well that's one more Heat pick we can use with some good confidence in the future. I still think that the chances of Miami winning the series is slim, especially with Embiid bound to return for Game 3. Hassan's minutes were still extremely low, and I don't think anyone can trust him as a pick yet.


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