Sunday brings us a Game 7 (UTA@LAC) and a Round 2 Game 1 (WAS@BOS). If you are thinking of picking a Wizard just so you are surely to keep either the Jazz or Clippers rosters intact for Round 2, that is a bad idea. It is better to wrongly pick a Jazz or Clipper who "might" reach Round 2, than to pick a player already in Round 2.
But which one? Do you pick a Jazz player because the Clippers are hosting? Or do you pick a Clipper because you believe they cannot win again without Griffin? If you are unsure like me, then join me in picking the best player among the pool of Jazz and Clippers. Mine is DeAndre Jordan.
As for the remaining of Round 2 games this week, I have preselected the stars of the teams which I think will lose: Rockets, Wizards, Raptors. I may still change some of those as whoever in Jazz and Clippers who will face the Warriors are most likely exiting early anyways.
Lazy picks? What do you think?
UPDATE:
Tuesday doesn't give me any reason to change my Wall pick as I don't have much Jazz players worthy as of current.
Wednesday though I am changing my pick from DeRozan to Lowry. I feel now that DeRozan will have a good game in a game they actually win. And it's not Game 2 on the road. I got him for Game 3 Friday.
Thursday, I have Beal tentatively. Or Gortat. Or Beal. Or Gortat.
But which one? Do you pick a Jazz player because the Clippers are hosting? Or do you pick a Clipper because you believe they cannot win again without Griffin? If you are unsure like me, then join me in picking the best player among the pool of Jazz and Clippers. Mine is DeAndre Jordan.
As for the remaining of Round 2 games this week, I have preselected the stars of the teams which I think will lose: Rockets, Wizards, Raptors. I may still change some of those as whoever in Jazz and Clippers who will face the Warriors are most likely exiting early anyways.
Lazy picks? What do you think?
UPDATE:
Tuesday doesn't give me any reason to change my Wall pick as I don't have much Jazz players worthy as of current.
Wednesday though I am changing my pick from DeRozan to Lowry. I feel now that DeRozan will have a good game in a game they actually win. And it's not Game 2 on the road. I got him for Game 3 Friday.
Thursday, I have Beal tentatively. Or Gortat. Or Beal. Or Gortat.
It's strange how 2 rounds can sometimes occur on the same day in the NBA playoffs, it never happens in NHL, MLB and is not possible in NFL, MLS soccer or any college sports. Because neither of these games use round multipliers, things are simple just pick from the R1G7 where someone will be eliminated after this game. Last year things were very complicated on Drive and Slam picking a super player in R1G7 or a mediocre player in R2G1, the R1 superstar got exactly double of the R2 consideration making it a tie but the R1 star was the better choice since he went home that night.... of course I took the R2 player in typical aceee06 fashion!!!!!
ReplyDeleteWell I'm dammed if I switch and I'm dammed if I don't switch!
ReplyDeletePlaying Monroe instead of Greek Freak in G5 was absolute brain freeze...maybe I thought MIL could still win since their closer win was bigger then the bigger loss (prior to getting blown out by 25 in G5).... then I change Wade to Butler because BOS/CHI G6 matched days
with LAC/Utah G6 only to witness LAC be the team who wins G6?! Because Wade blew out Butler I decided to split Greek Freak and Gasol who were in the same boat, top player on team in a G6 at home facing elimination.... Why? Greek Freak is > Gasol.... yeah just like Butler > Wade! If Wade had barely beaten Butler I would have played Greek Freak in GD, but Wade beating Butler by 15+ seemed like anything could happen between Gasol and Greek Freak in the same boat.... but because I switched, Greek Freak beat Gasol by 17! So then I decide no switching I'm taking Paul in both games instead of flipping one to Millsap, Jordan or Wade. Good thing I didn't take Wade as he was truly invisible (8 PAR including just 2 points)... I figured Butler would beat him just to spite me and he beat him by 22, 4 or 5 more than Wade beat him by in G5! However Millsap was the pick to make as he got even more than Paul especially on FP (48-40 on GD, 55-38 FP) AND the Hawks got eliminated!
I'm dammed if I keep my plan and I'm dammed if I change. I can't win no matter what!
I don't even know what to say.... that's a brutal sequence of events. Hopefully round 2 brings some better luck!
DeleteI hope so too, I promise all good players on losing teams are getting used and nobody is being used on the same day in both games during the next two rounds!!
DeleteI wouldn't say lazy picks, a good strategy is to go with the best player from the team you think will lose. If injury strikes, you are glad you did that. It's not my strategy, as I like to wait for the game I feel the best player will be at their best.
ReplyDeleteFor Round 2, no matter who the Warriors play, they should win handily. Other than that, the rest of the round is a little more murky.
Warriors vs. Clippers/Jazz
Should be a quick series. I'll still have Jordan/Hayward. If the Jazz advance, there's a couple other decent options in Hill and Johnson. If the Clippers advance, there isn't as much there to choose from.
Prediction: Warriors in 4
Cavaliers vs. Raptors
In theory, the Cavs have the edge on the Raptors, but they haven't been as good a team this season as last year, and the Raptors have played some great ball when everything is rolling. DeRozan and Lowry are the only two must pick players this round, so I'm waiting on them for the time being. I want home games for them both.
Prediction (Heart): Raptors in 6, because why not!
Prediction (Brain): Cavs in 6
Spurs vs. Rockets
The Rockets are a PRA goldmine. Even if they advance, picking a couple of them early wouldn't be an issue. Capela, Gordon, Williams, Beverly, Ariza, and Anderson could all make for a good pick depending on how they are utilized against the Spurs. Saving Harden for the home game, and starting off with Lou Williams on Monday.
Prediction: Spurs in 5
Celtics vs. Wizards
This series is definitely one of the closest ones, and one I hope to steer clear from for at least a couple of games. The results of game 1 will shed more light, but I think the Wizards can win this series. By the end of the round, if Washington loses Beal and Wall are must pick, and if Boston loses Thomas and Horford are must pick. I don't expect to pick anything beyond that, and instead will focus on picking more Rockets and Clippers/Jazz if needed.
PredictionL Wizards in 6
I agree with you that I would like to pick Lowry and DeRozan at home, but they play on the same days than Spurs-Rockets, and I would like to wait to pick from that series. And also Lowry has been dealing with back problems. I think they will not have as many rest days during the series as they had this weekend, so I will pick him for game 1. Plus, I am out of puppies already
DeleteLooks like we already have a casualty in the 2nd round:
ReplyDeleteMarkieff Morris came down and rolled his left ankle badly landing on Al Horford's foot while making a jumper with the foul. Morris was immediately down writhing in pain. Morris stayed in to make the free throw before coming out of the game.
Just when I was lining up my picks for WAS/BOS, now we lose a man.
Got lucky with DeAndre at 7% ownership.
ReplyDeleteHayward at 19%.
Am I wrong? I look at the schedules and next saturday and monday there's only Warriors-Jazz games, and on sunday 3 games including Celtics-Wizards? If so, having only left Hill, Johnson, Ingles?, Hood?...I think we will be forced to save players from the Jazz to those two games. And start picking from Wizards before that sunday
ReplyDeleteNo, that is the correct schedule. I am already reserving Jazz player for G3 and G4. I have all Jazz player except Hayward.
DeleteFor Monday, rather best to start picking a Raptor. This is likely the obvious choice that the Cavs could advanced to the conference final in 4-6 games. There are 3 to pick (DeRozan, Lowry and Ibaka). For HOU-SA series, I think this could be a 6-7 game series. So I will pick in this series later.
For Tuesday and Thursday, I have to pick from the WAS-BOS series. I likely start with either Horford, Bradley, Crowder or Porter, Gortat, Obure Jr base on either can win the series.
Gortat is the pick for me on Tuesday. The Celtics really struggle with rebounding and as we've seen with Robin Lopez and now Gortat, opposing big men feast on Al Horford. Gortat will be much more useful this series than against the Cavaliers as he probably won't be on the floor much when the Cavs play small ball and so even if the Wizards advance I have no problem having given up Gortat.
DeleteAh, all is great again. I come back from my weekend-tour without internet and find that indeed there were games played on sunday.
ReplyDeleteOf course both games are done already, I couldn´t pick. Okay, I probably would have picked a Jazz player, but still would be better than losing out again.
Not my year so far in this game.
You're still ahead of me, I'm 34/40 despite not missing a day in this game (I did miss a day on FP).
DeleteWorth noting that FiveThirtyEight's statistical model gives the Raptors a 54% chance of winning this series. For comparison, before any of the series started, Boston had a 74% chance, Spurs a 62% chance, and Warriors an 89% chance. Doesn't mean we should treat the Raptors like favourites, especially considering the history, but a lot of people are saying the obvious choice is to start with Raptors and I'd say it's best to give this series at least one game. The Rockets are absolutely loaded with options, so my recommendation to everyone is to start with a Rocket. I've got Lou Williams. Go Raptors!
ReplyDeleteIf nothing strange happens I will pick a Rocket on game2. I agree they have several good options. I hope it will be a good series, but I just can't bet against Kyrie and...LeBron! They are so tough to beat in the Playoffs. I am not a Cavs fan, but I can't see them out from the Finals, unless injuries happen. And the Raptors didn't look that reliable in first round against the Bucks. Statistics are something good to look at, but some players just step up at the right time.
DeleteCurrently for Game 1 in 538...
Delete0-0TOR 41% 59% CLE0-0
Ibaka and Tucker I read were acquired as anti-Lebron defenders. I still some close games. But Cavs have this.
Monday's ownership:
DeleteLowry TOR 13%
DeRozan TOR 12%
Ibaka TOR 7%
Harden HOU 4% - shivering cold
The 59% Cleveland and 41% Toronto odds are for Game 1, not the series, which makes sense because the home team is always more likely to win. Note that for Game 3, Toronto is listed at 67% and Cleveland 33%.
DeleteSource: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Interesting. Defense wins. Cavs have been abysmal on D throughout the season. Hmm.
DeleteThis is the first day of a new round (for those that took a Jazz/Clipper player yesterday) and a new month! Here's joping it's better than how the 1st round and April went for me in particular in google drive. I come into May in the bottom quarter of google drive (34/40) and 188th/356 (not counting 27 dead entries with 0 points) in FP.
ReplyDeleteMy 1st round recap
ReplyDeleteDate --Google drive pick (PRA) ---- Fantasy postseason (PRABS+bonuses-To)
4/15 -- Khris Middleton (21) ----Greg Monroe (34)
4/16 -- C.J. Mccollum (50) Great pick! ---- Dwight Howard (23)
4/17 -- Zach Randolph (29)- Good news +8 on Gasol's 21 ---- Bad news I had that same 21 in FP
4/18 J.J. Redick (8) My worst statistical pick, in retrospect I should have taken Blake Griffin who had 31 but with all 3 lower seeds up 1-0 felt unsure of what would happen so I chose a scrub.---- Jamal Crawford (13) same scenario on FP as my Redick pick on GD.
4/19 Dwight Howard (14)- My biggest flop pick, at least Redick and Crawford weren't expected for much but this reminds me of another 14 from Howard 2 years ago when he got ejected AND Fouled out!---- NO PICK (WTF)!!!!!
4/20 Mike Conley (33) ---- Paul George Indiana (68) Best pick of the round in either game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4/21 Russell Westbrook (56) - Who ever thought the day would come where I (or anyone) would complain about a 50+ showing (and my best GD pick of the round)... well when it's still his worst performance of the series and I'm in the bottom (10/quarter) of the league (34th/40) I must sadly.---- Enes Kanter (13) A stupid pick by me not realizing how badly his minutes had dropped lately... it's like he instantly got several years older in a few weeks!
4/22 Damian Lillard (42) Right player right day just like with McCollum! ---- Dennis Schroeder (36) - Not a bad pick, by any means its just unfortunate that my original consideration, Millsap got 52!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4/23 Paul George (28) - Got his best on FP, his worst here. ---- Jeff Teague (34)- Bad news he beat George (GD), Good news he beat George (FP)!!!!!
4/24 Greg Monroe (15) - What on earth happened to my brain? G5 with the Raptors having reclaimed home court advantage and I don't pick Greek Freak in a game (so he gets picked on 2 separate days)?! Serves me right getting a sub par showing here!----Damian Lillard (43) looks like I played him well in both games, I need to build on this!
4/25 DeAndre Jordan (27) Oh well there are worse showings and he was on the losing team.---- Russell Westbrook (68) I envy those who got 88 but can't complain about that showing!
4/26 Jimmy Butler (28) ---- Jimmy Butler (27) This is where I BROKE my rule and I paid for it on FP as I flipped from Wade who had 45 and lost 18.
4/27 Marc Gasol (29)---- Giannis Antetokounmpo (52) - Picking the same player in both games should be avoided but when I switched off "Greek Freak" in GD I lost 17 (he got 46 in GD) and he went unpicked there.
4/28 Chris Paul (40) ---- Chris Paul (38) - After losing Greek Freak in GD, I decided NO SWITCHING! Paul's showing wasn't bad but Millsap was better especially in FP and I was worried that I had taken a terrible pick when the Clippers won that game.
4/29 NO GAMES - Hey I picked Greek Freak in GD afterall, how much do I get?..... Umm zero! Darn! ---- No picks
4/30 Gordon Hayward (37) ---- Gordon Hayward (35) - My first and only pick of an advancing player, can't really be upset since I had to avoid possibly losing him after pitiful losses of Mccollum (FP), Millsap (BOTH) and Greek Freak (GD). I also lost Blake Griffin in both games but that maybe understandable. lol
I was planning on picking George Hill today, but considering Saturday and Monday are both forced Jazz picking days, and that Favors is now banged up means I might need to save Gobert and Hill for then, and I'm not sure how much I trust Joe Johnson this series. The Celtics won a very convincing game 1, so I feel like my original "Wizards in 6" prediction is unlikely. I'm picking Marcin Gortat today. With Markieff Morris hurting, they will need to rely on Gortat. I plan to pick one of John Wall or Bradley Beal for Game 3, and then save the other one for the elimination game, assuming the Wizards don't start proving my original prediction correct.
ReplyDeleteThat is some brutal scheduling with May 6 and 8 being the 1st and 2nd 1 game days and they happen to both be Warriors @ Jazz so I have to take Hill on each game 1 day, question is who do I trade off with? I used Hayward in G7 vs Clippers
DeleteIf you still have him, I'd say it's Gobert for the other day.
DeleteI just checked I agree Gobert is my other pick.
DeleteThey will be slit between GD and FP on Saturday and the reverse split will happen on Monday.
Favors is not a good pick in my opinion as with a healthy Gobert now he is getting much less minutes.
DeleteToday I have Porter pre-picked. Especially if Markieff doesn't play. If he finally plays I could change to Gortat though. No way to pick from the other series at this point
ReplyDeleteMorris will play tonight. Amir Johnson is starting over Green.
DeleteI know, but I am keeping Porter, I don't use to do better when I change my pick
DeleteI will be happy if he can finish the game healthy...
DeleteWith first Rockets win, I will change my plan to pick one of their players. Having used Lowry, my pick goes to Serge Ibaka. I prefer DeRozan for a home game. As game4 is on the 3-games sunday, probably for game3.
ReplyDeleteFor tomorrow I was thinking of Beal, but depending on tonight's games, if both Rockets and Cavs win again, I would switch to Wall. I don't want to risk losing DeRozan, Wall or Kawhi. Sunday's busy schedule is a headache for planning
This is where the game gets a bit more difficult. Do you play it safe (i.e. do whatever to ensure all the best players are picked by the end of game 4) or take a more aggressive approach and try to save one or two of the best players for an elimination game? That's what I'm weighing today. I've got Lowry, DeRozan, Beal, Wall, and one of Leonard/Harden all remaining. If I don't start with that group today, there is a chance I lose a couple of them if we get a bunch of sweeps. However, I think all sweeps is extremely unlikely, so I'm choosing the more aggressive approach, and picking Serge Ibaka today. I said I needed one game of Cavs vs. Raptors to decide, and that one game was quite convincing. Not totally bailing on the Raptors just yet, but they are definitely likely to be going home. By picking Ibaka, I'm definitely going to need the Wizards to win Game 3, because I've got Beal tomorrow, and a forced pick of John Wall on Sunday would be a nightmare.
ReplyDeleteCurrent Plan:
Wed: Ibaka
Thu: Beal
Fri: Lowry
Sat: Gobert
Sun: DeRozan/Kawhi
Mon: Hill
Tue: DeRozan/Kawhi/Aldridge/Harden
Wed: Wall/Johnson/Morris/Porter
Thu: DeRozan/Kawhi/Aldridge/Harden
Fri: Wall/Johnson/Morris/Porter
Oh, I love picking recaps. Here is mine, doubling as the big whinefest.
ReplyDeleteApr-15: googledrive: Paul George 41, not a bad pick, but PG had 28, 41, 47 and 60.
Fantasy Postseason: I learned too late that there is another game, when I started there was only the Clippers - Jazz game to pick from, I chose Gobert, he played 14 seconds for a total of 0 PRA.
Apr-16: GD Jimmy Butler 42, seemed like a bad pick at the time as the Bulls won, especially after they went up 2-0 in the series
FP Lillard 47, had to chose between him and McCollum, and the guy I didn´t pick went for 50 (you know, the guy that also had 12 and 18)
Apr-17: GD Marc Gasol 21, his worst (Conley had 33, Randolph 29 from the bench)
FP Conley 34 fantasy points (I had to get one pick right of the two)
Apr-18: I panicked and picked Clippers, in GD I picked Paul for 33 (he also had 40, 41, 48 and 26), in FP it was Griffin for 32
Apr-19: GD time for Lillard for a whopping 17, in FP it was my fellow German Dennis Schröder for 33
Apr-20: GD Conley for 33 and in FP PG13 for 68 fantasy points (60 PRA)
Apr-21: GD Isiah Thomas, a reasonable pick at the time, squandered for a ridiculous 27, and on FP Westbrook for 67 fps (56 PRA). Two must-picks, one came back to bite me.
Apr-22: GD CJ McCollum for 38, okay. FP CJ got me 41. First time I picked the same player in both games when Lillard had 42, Conley 52, Schröder 39, Millsap 48, ah, I better stop. Happy birthday to me
Apr-23: my next brilliant move in GD: Gordon Hayward, when he was ill, played 9 minutes and got 5 PRA, my second burn from Utah. Hayward was also used in FP for a whopping 4. Note to self: pick different players
Apr-24: GD Millsap for 35, in FP Greek Freak for 51 fps
Apr-25: in GD time for Westbrook for 67, close to his 74, that was more than okay. Marc Gasol disappointed me again, this time in FP for 27 fps
Apr-26: in GD Schröder netted me a 41, nice. In FP Jimmy Butler got me a 27, yikes.
Apr-27: Milwaukee Bucks night. In GD it was Giannis for 46 (hooray), in FP it was Middleton for the third consecutive 27 in that game (yeah, kind of)
Apr-28: in GD DeAndre Jordan for 32 (okay), in FP Chris Paul for 38. Of course the Clippers won in Utah, got to game 7 at home, and I didn´t have access to the internet.
Apr-29: no game, my pick Dirk Nowitzki was only beaten by the puppy
Apr-30: no time for picks. In GD I prepicked Dwyane Wade, but the Bulls were eliminated in g6. In FP I couldn´t pick on friday when I was last online. I sincerely doubt that I would have prepicked from the Clippersgame.
May-1: Start of round 2. Later for that.
Meanwhile, my own picks more than bad, but you see, I have this friend of mine, who is playing this game with me. You might have heard of him, he is the guy at the top of the stands for a whlie now. He only plays GD and he has the knack for it, so far.
He got CJ McCollum for his 50, Blake Griffin before he got hurt for 31, Westbrooks 74, Paul George´s 60, Lillard for 42, Butler for 47, Chris Paul for 41, Wade for 45!, Hayward for 37, and just so you know, he even got John Wall correct last night for his 56. Right now he is 65 points better than second place, and 159 points removed from me.
I think he might beat me this year.
That guy is a genius!!!!!
DeleteI am kinda proud of my pick of Jonas Valanciunas in GD. He was good.
ReplyDeletePick of the day in a very cynical way would have been Tony Parker. What does his injury mean for the Spurs? Except for the fact that Patty Mills will get more minutes? I am not so sure that the Rockets will be able to go up 3-1 in their coming homestand.
By the way, why are there 3 games on sunday and only 1 game on saturday and monday? I don´t get the reasoning behind this schedule.
Sponsors and viewership stuff
DeleteThey have to get the warriors jazz series in sync with the celtics wizards series since the jazz went to game 7 that series started 2 days late. The celtics and wizards get back to back 3 days rest so as to play 2 games in 6 days while the warriors and jazz play 3 games in 6 days to make up for their late start to the series.
DeleteTook Beal in GD, Wall in FP
ReplyDeleteBeal with 4 fouls during the 3rd quarter... this is another reason why I split picks since we are at the mercy of the refs! Thank goodness you guys are running two contests!!
ReplyDeleteGood strategy, I can't believe I would had pick Porter over Beal if this would had been a blowout in the 1st quarter. Wasted pick pick pick on a superstar but I had no choice since Sunday is a threeway game pick situation.
DeleteMy pick plan is much obvious the next few days.
ReplyDeleteCurrent plan:
Fri: DeRozan
Sat: Gobert
Sun: Aldridge/Mills/Harden/Jonas/Joseph
Mon: Hill
I so hate myself for picking the same player in both games. But I had to pick Wall, and I couldn´t bring myself to picking Otto Porter jr. I really wanted to and wrestled with myself, but I just couldn´t bring myself to chosing him over Wall.
ReplyDeleteThen Wall goes for 33 and Porter for 29. When I picked Beal a few days ago I lost 33 to Wall who went off. Of course it was not possible to repeat that feat. Ah well.
You know, everyday when I go online (if possible, I am on the road again this weekend) I first go to FP and pick, then to GD and pick there, then back here to see there is no new blog but a few new comments.
Today I picked Hill in FP, then went to GD and saw Hill highlighted in red. That means he is out at least for the next game, right? I switched him.
There are no films of the game on the NBA page, there are no texts, so no way of me knowing that stuff.
Hill was out for game 2, hence the red. Unsure of his status for Game 3, will update colour once I know more. By the way, if you'll be out of town in the future like you were for the Game 7's in the first round and won't know what games will even be played, feel free to send an email to me with a ranked list in case some of the game sevens don't happen. It's one advantage of the Google Drive format is that we can accommodate for the times you are out of town. For example, if you want George Hill but aren't sure he'll be healthy, feel free to email me "I'll be out of town. Give me Hill if he's playing, and Rodney Hood if he is inactive." I'll put that as a PSA on the league page. As long as people are proactive with stuff like that, it's allowed, and will help for situations like this where you won't have internet.
DeleteI'm planning to split picks tonight with the Raptors' stars but Lowry in orange has me worried. I am also planning on splitting Gobert and Hill for tomorrow however Hill is in red but I'm not sure if that was just for G2 or if he will be out longer?
ReplyDeleteTonight is an easy pick for me - DeMar DeRozan. Yesterday, I really thought Beal was going to have a huge game, and it started that way, but foul trouble and a blowout cost a lot of us that big performance. Oh well. I have the same feeling about DeRozan being huge. He only had 5 points in Game 2, he has to step it up here. Hopefully this bounce back turns out much better!
ReplyDeleteAlso DeRozan for me. I hope if Lowry misses the game, his bigger usage will count more than Cavs defense focused on him
Delete