As we all try to figure out whether we should keep picking our best remaining Rocket or pluck away a Warrior from the Finals, one of the things we should look at are splits stats. Splits "by opponents" tell us whether a Warrior may play better against the Cavaliers or in this series versus the Rockets.
Here are their splits:
* Player Name / Playoffs vs Rockets / Season vs Cavaliers
* Stephen Curry / 42 / 30
* Draymond Green / 34 / 28
* Klay Thompson / 23 / 27
* Harrison Barnes / 15 / 18
* Andrew Bogut / 17 / 12
* Andre Iguodala / 15 / 16
Anyone ready to pick Curry?
I know this sounds too objective, but in the absence of inside information, these numbers provide guidance.
I already picked Curry and Bogut, so that leaves me with Green with 'probably' better outing this series than against the Cavaliers.
Before considering the splits, I was thinking of Jason Terry who showed he can showcase his skillz as an upcoming free agent in an elimination game by suddenly getting a 20 PRA in Game 4. However, Game 5 is on the road so I may not get that 20.
If I pick Green in Game 5, I still have (in order of PRA average) LeBron, Kyrie, Klay, Tristan, Harrison, Iman, Timofey, J.R. and Iguodala for the Finals. The 4th to last in that list have slightly lower stats than JET's FA-in-elims probable numbers, but I can just monitor the next series more closely to do some maneouvering like I did last year's Finals.
Terry is still a logical pick (and hottest too), but Green gets my pick for tonight.
As Morgan Freeman mentioned in the movie Deep Impact, "Good luck to us all."
I'm ready to pick Curry! I'm ready to pick Curry!
ReplyDeleteAfter getting 0 regular points from both Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut, I'm ready to pick a Golden State Warrior who can actually score a point. Enter, the Golden Boy! Going for the extreme bounce back here after he got what should be his worst playoff performance due to leaving with an injury. He should be hungry to close this out and I expect he will score. A lot. Like I'm hoping he surpasses the 50 PRA mark. I'd be good with anything in the 40's though. Sitting at 80th percentile, I'm hopeful a great Curry performance can boost me up while other people picking Terry, Barnes, Bogut, Iguodala, Jones, and Brewer get let down by mediocrity.
I'm also at 80 percentile. 1006 pts, thanks to the 9 pra stunker from hordfort last night
ReplyDeleteWe have the exact same number of points. You have a huge advantage over me though, because you've picked Dellavedova and Barnes from advancing teams and I've picked Green, Thompson, Barnes, and Bogut. Nicely done.
DeleteCleveland came out with an inspired effort and the Atlanta Hawks decided to completely mail it in for the third game in this series, and the Hawks got swept in a shameful and embarrassing way. The Atlanta Hawks proved they had no business being a #1 seed, not only in this series where they were totally annihilated, but in the other series as well, where they struggled at times to beat inferior lower seeded teams. Hopefully Atlanta never gets to be a #1 seed again. They definitely deserved to lose and did very little in most of these games to even remotely try to win. Only in Game #3 did they even try to bring their best effort in this series. And now they are eliminated, and they definitely deserve to be gone.
ReplyDeleteCleveland moves on to the Finals in impressive fashion, and I have their entire roster to pick from (other than Iman Shumpert), so that is decent going forward. Hopefully I can pick the right players on the right day for once, and maximize PRA points for the 4th Round.
The entire Atlanta Hawks team waived the white flag early in Game #4, and this entire team, other than Paul Millsap (31 PRA) and Kent Bazemore (23 PRA), put in miserable lack of efforts for this one. The absolute pansy Hawks players quit and ended up on the bench for much of the second half. It made sense for Cleveland to bench their starters, they were way up, moving on to the Finals with ease, and no reason to get anyone hurt. Exactly why were the Atlanta starters benched. It was win or go home. Stay out there and fight and at least make some type of effort to try to win. You have nothing to lose, and if someone gets hurt you have your entire off-season to heal up. You can't possibly think your bench players are going to give you a better chance to win, than your starters. Just another stupid coaching move by the Hawks here in Game #4 in waiving the white flag way too early.
My pick, Jeff Teague (19 PRA) was one of the most miserable of the Hawks players giving zero effort in this one. Only Al Horford (9 PRA) put in a more disgusting lack of effort in this one, than Teague. Both starters were way below their averages, and were miserable for anyone picking either of them.
Naturally if I had switched out my Game #3 (Paul Millsap) and Game #4 (Jeff Teague) picks, I would have done far better by doing so. Millsap (31 PRA in both Games #3 and #4), Jeff Teague (43 PRA Game #3, horrendous 19 PRA Game #4). Net Gain of +24 PRA by just switching those two players. But naturally I put Jeff Teague in the wrong order.
Best picks (losing team): Kent Bazemore (23 PRA), Paul Millsap (31 PRA) Clearly the only two Hawks that even remotely cared in this one.
Best picks (winning team): JR Smith (31 PRA), Tristan Thompson (27 PRA), Timofey Mozgov (22 PRA) but with Cleveland advancing, you really shouldn't be picking from that team at this point.
Horrible/Miserable picks: Al Horford (9 PRA), Jeff Teague (19 PRA) the game after he had 43 PRA naturally, Dennis Schroder (9 PRA), but after his 1 PRA in Game #3 in 3 minutes played, surprised anyone picked him never mind the 10% number that acutally did.
The only good thing that happened yesterday was that I picked Jeff Teague and not Al Horford, and I didn't pick any Cleveland players (other than Shumpert), as we move on to the Finals.
Harrison Barnes or Bogut for tonight? Barnes is the hot pick and had a good showing last game while Bogut got in foul trouble. I'm thinking of going with Bogut for the bounce back but I'm interested in your take. Thanks!
ReplyDelete...and going from your post it looks like Barnes might be expected to play better against the Cavs than the Rockets.
DeleteWho is your best Rocket remaining? Compare his PRA to Bogut's.
DeleteGo with your remaining Rocket
DeleteUnfortunately Terry is my best Rocket (13.3 series average PRA) versus Bogut (16.8) or Barnes (15.0). I'm going to stick with Bogut for the aforementioned reasons unless someone wants to talk me out of it...
DeleteIf you haven't used any Cavs, you will be fine picking Warriors stars. Just keep one good Warrior.
DeleteBogut then. crossfingers
DeleteTeague soso when I pick him? That was to be expected. Game 4 was what I thought game 3 would have been, a blowout. With lots of garbage time. Now if I had picked Teague in game 3 and then substituted Schröder for Bazemore in game 4, I would have gotten 66 points. By first picking Schröder then Teague I got 20. But more on that in my round 3 round up.
ReplyDeleteTonight I changed my pick from Brewer to a Warrior. Maybe Iguodala will be better than Brewer. Probably not, but it wouldn't help me anyway, as long as Iggy doesn't channel his inner LeBron and drops a 40-12-11.
I am just glad that Curry didn't get seriously hurt. And not because I didn't pick him yet. I hope there wasn't anybody having picked Curry and hoping he might be out for the rest of the campaign to gain momentum for their DTTF campaign.
Golden State heads back home to hopefully close things out and punch their ticket for advancement to the Finals. The Warriors mailed it in for Game #4, as Houston was the far more inspired team in that one, which led to Houston winning Game #4 and forcing a Game #5 back at Golden State. Logically speaking all of that was what is normally expected in how these series play out. Had Houston even remotely made an effort in Game #3 at home, their situation could look far different right now, possibly even tied at 2-2. But it doesn't and they are down 1-3, needing two road wins (+ a home win) over the best home team in the league to advance. I can't see that as a very likely scenario to happen, at least at this point.
ReplyDeleteSo with Golden State very likely to win this series at least, I should be picking a Houston player here tonight, unfortunately I don't have any more Houston Rockets players to pick from. Thus I will have to pick from the Golden State roster two, and the two prospects I am looking at are wildly inconsistent, Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes. I want to keep the top 3 Warriors for the Finals (Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson).
This is a very tough call as Harrison Barnes has scored between 7 and 22 PRA vs. Houston in this series, and Andrew Bogut has had 4, 12, 25, 26 PRA efforts in this series. Both players as shown are wildly inconsistent, Bogut seems to have the most upside, Barnes with a little less instability, although I certainly don't want either 4 PRA or 7 PRA from either of these players here tonight, and both are very capable of doing so unfortunately.
Decided to go with Harrison Barnes tonight for Game #5. He seems more consistent in this series (other than the 7 PRA performance), and he isn't going directly against Dwight Howard, while Andrew Bogut is. I believe Bogut would do better vs. Cleveland's bigs than he would Dwight Howard, even if the numbers don't really show that. Still think that Bogut is far less likely to foul out vs. Cleveland than Houston going against Howard in the paint. Harrison Barnes is coming off a 22 PRA point game, and I am hoping for another 20+ PRA performance from him again tonight, and hopefully a Golden State win to advance, so I don't gut their roster any more than I have to.
With the Cavs advancing to the finals, don't have to worried picking any Hawks anymore. Now for tonight, I had Terrance pre-pick but now I decided to change my pick pick to a Warrior.
ReplyDeleteCavs have 6 good players to pick: (James, Irving, Smith, T. Thompson, Shumpert and Mozgov).
Warriors I only have 3 good Warriors to pick with (Curry, Green and Iguodala). Already picked (Bogut, Barnes and K. Thompson). I will saved Curry for the finals going against the gimpy Irving.
My pick tonight will be Draymond Green. This change my pick (Terrance Jones) since Cavs was able to advanced to next round.
Now sitting at 1,010 points, 81 percentile.
Deletehey guys i have a question, pretend you believe that you had won the conference finals for dttf or a good chance that you won How would you know that you won for real? do nba send u a email or a notice that you won ?
ReplyDeleteyes.
Deleteas per rules, "Potential winners will be notified by email, phone or mail as necessary throughout the Promotion Period.
Final question : do you have to be a us citizen to be eligible for a prize because I am from Canada and not a us citizen
DeleteYou have to be a US Citizen, unfortunately. I'm also from Canada and thus ineligible from the prizes. Thus, I play for the love of the game and the competition, and not for the prizes.
DeleteWow that's really dissapointing because I'm pretty sure that I had won the round but thanks
DeleteYeah, I discovered that when I was ranked #21 after 3 rounds back in the dream season of 2009. I was terrible in the Finals, so I didn't win, but I checked the 'Rules' section just to make sure that I was eligible. Sucks to think you've won it and then find out that there are eligibility restrictions. Well, even without the prizes, feel free to gloat about having an epic round of DTTF.
DeleteHooray, it's over. Admitted, it couldn't have been much faster, 9 games for two series is probably as fast as it gets, but this round was brutal for me.
ReplyDeleteI finished in style, changing Brewer to Iguodala and losing four points this way. The really funny thing? The game was decided and Iguodala got 4 freethrows in the garbage time at the end. And he goes 0 for 4. Ends up with 16 PRA, could have had 18-20 PRA. Brewer had 20 PRA. Ah, well.
Next up: The Finals. I already prepicked to game 7 and still have guys left with more than 15 PRA in the playoffs. More on that on the round-up.