Going into Game 5, some of us held back from picking in that series because we wanted to be sure we can bring the winning players into the next round of the playoffs. Now that the Spurs won and have put the Clippers into the brink of elimination in Game 6 at San Antonio, we are confident now that we can finally pick a Clipper.
My pick is a no-brainer; it's Blake Griffin for 40+ PRA. 50 is a bonus. And for those of you who already used him, Chris Paul is still a 30 PRA prospect. Even those who are only left with DeAndre Jordan, I think he'll give you 30 in a redemption game.
Do you think the Clippers can steal a game again on the road? If they do, will they be the favorite to win Game 7 at home? And ruin all our plans?
I dare not answer that now. My pick is Blake and my expectation is for the Spurs to finish them off in Game 6. If not, only then will I worry about that.
Good luck to us!
Hi everyone!!! I've been following some of yours comments although I didn't say anything till now... That's just because un the first round the question is trying to keep players of winning teams to have enough stuff in the next rounds. So, I think everybody has picked the same players (more or less) but in different order.
ReplyDeleteOn Tuesday, I picked a Clipper (Griffin) because there are most LAC players with a potential high PRA. The thing was, if Los Angeles won, I 've picked Duncan today. As they lose, I'm going with CP3. And if they get a win, Duncan will be my pick for the last game.
good to hear from you again quark!
DeleteI think Chris Paul at 30 PRA is a bit too low. I see that as his floor, and he's got serious 40-45 potential likely to be reached. Griffin is the obvious pick between the two, but their PRA's will be closer tonight. Chris Paul is the heart of the team.
ReplyDeleteCan the Clippers steal a game again on the road? Absolutely. Why not? I've picked Griffin and now Paul, and if the Clippers steal one on the road I'll be OK with that since that means Chris Paul just had a huge game.
Would the Clippers be the favourite to win Game 7? I don't think so, it would be 50-50. #neverbetagainstthespurs
Would it ruin our plans if the Clippers win? Sort of, but DTTF is a collective, and it would mostly ruin the plans of people who have picked both Clippers (or all 3). So no matter the result, most people will be in the same boat. I'd say it will force us to create adjusted plans as opposed to ruining our plans in the next rounds.
My picks for the next two days are easy: Chris Paul and Joe Johnson. We shall see if there will be any game sevens, which are where DTTF becomes that much more interesting.
Would it ruin our plans if the Clippers win?
DeleteIt's pretty much game over for any chance of winning anything if you drain the Clippers (or any team's) roster and the Clippers come back to win. So that scenario is catastrophic in terms of how this will turn out for anyone using up the entire roster from the team moving on.
It is even more so, the farther that team eventually moves on. No Clippers left and they advance, best case scenario, you are playing Matt Barnes and other scrubs while others are playing Chris Paul or Blake Griffin, or DeAndre Jordan in later rounds.
Whether that be in Round #2, Round #3 or #4. Plus if they would actually make to Round #3 or #4, you basically destroy any chance of winning prizes from those rounds also, as well as the grand prize. No matter how unlikely it may seem, someone out there will have full rosters (or near full) going into the Finals.
Going with the wrong team to win in this game can be catastrophic to your chances of winning anything. The only way this can work out is if the player you pick does well, and that player later becomes injured and unable to play, or the player you pick overwhelmingly puts up a huge total, and never comes near that number again. Otherwise it is extremely important to get the winning team right, and pick from the loser.
I agree with all of that, but my point is more that, as of right now, 99% of DTTF is banking on the Clippers losing. If the Clippers advance, it puts us in a tough position, but it also puts 99% of us in a tough position. So it doesn't end any one individuals chances. The people who benefit the most from the Clippers coming back and winning are people like Taong who have waiting this long.
DeleteMy last pick: Damian Lillard. He was okay with 31 PRA, better than Aldridge or Batum, and nobody could have predicted the 36 from McCollum. So I am okay with that. In hindsight, Griffin would have been the ideal pick. I am now stuck, like so many others, with having picked no one from that series and probably now having the opportunity for one (1) pick. As much as I would love to pick against the grain with Paul, there simply is no other choice than Griffin. If the Clips win, Duncan or Leonard in g7. If #neverbetagainstthespurs holds true, then I will lose Paul, Jordan and whoever else they have.
ReplyDeleteThe night after that is where it gets dirty. Only one game, I picked JJ and Lopez already, and now? There is not necessarily a PRA monster in the Hawks squad that has to be picked, and all the Nets are at best inconsistent (take that 47 away from Deron, what do you have left? ugh) or 15-25 plateau.
Without too much hope I have to pick Deron Williams. Please please please let him have at least a decent game. Preferably better than Young, my only alternative that I considered. And have the Hawks win.
Deron needs a good game. He is starting to get the heat
DeleteMemphis eliminated Portland as expected, although it was a bit closer than anticipated, still the Grizzlies got the job done and eliminated the Blazers from the Playoffs.
ReplyDeleteCJ McCollum (36 PRA) was the pick of the night from the losing teams. Marc Gasol (43 PRA) of the winning Grizzlies and most Atlanta players had the best scores of the night, but with their teams winning and most likely moving to the next round, they were not the best picks to make.
My pick Damian Lillard put up 31 PRA, which was 10 short of his best (41 PRA), but at least he beat LaMarcus Aldridge (24 PRA) and Nicolas Batum (23 PRA). So even though he wasn't the best pick on the night, he was decent enough, since I wasn't going to pick CJ McCollum. Other decent picks from losing squads were Joe Johnson (31 PRA) and total surprise out of nowhere Alan Anderson (30 PRA).
For tonight, the Spurs are back home and need only 1 home win to move on to the next round. The Spurs obliterated the Clippers in Game #3, and they looked well on their way to winning this series until they inexplicably lost Game #4 at home. Then after that setback, they went to Los Angeles and won another road game, setting them up for tonight's scenario where they can advance to the next round with a home win, and avoid a return trip to Los Angeles for a deciding Game #7. I believe the Spurs will go all out tonight to make sure that does not happen, as I am sure they don't want any part of that, and I am sure Tim Duncan and company don't want any part of playing and extra games.
ReplyDeleteSo thinking the Spurs win tonight, I will pick a Clippers player, Blake Griffin. Griffin has been great in this series so far. His worst game was 29 PRA, but he also has a 51 PRA and 52 PRA game as well. He is the Clippers best player, and now seems the best time to pick him facing elimination. Just hopefully the Spurs actually win tonight, or at least win this series, so I don't have to scramble to recover from having nothing left to pick in later rounds if the Clippers actually win this series. Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan would also be good picks tonight from the Clippers vs. the Spurs.
The Bulls vs. Buck series is now a mess after Chicago let Milwaukee back into it after winning the first 3 games (now 3-2). The Bucks don't really have anyone noteworthy, so no reason to worry about that series at this point. I wouldn't be surprised at all at this point, if that series ends up going 7 games now with the Bulls carelessly losing Game #5 at home.
The Hack-a-Jordan strategy while a brilliant move by Coach Pop of the Spurs since Jordan can't make free-throws, is absolutely horrible to watch. And it totally ruins everyone else's fantasy value (or at least diminishes their value greatly), while DeAndre Jordan is the only one involved in the Clippers offense while this is going on.
ReplyDeleteHopefully that doesn't happen tonight, although since it has worked so well in past games, it probably will. That scares me greatly picking any Clipper at this point, but it is an elimination game and here is where we are at, so logically a Clipper must be picked tonight, thinking the Spurs clinch and advance tonight either way.
Coach Doc Rivers could always smarten up and send Jordan to the bench to stop this from happening, and let his other players have more flow with the offense. Or Jordan could always actually make his free throws (not likely), and end the foolishness. I am not counting on the latter happening.
I gave my thoughts on doc yesterday the guy is a overrated coach living off the Celtics big 3 achievements, Spurs have been average this series and Clippers should have won last game and it was all down to that 2min stretch in the 3rd where Spurs gained a 5 pt lead by hacking until he finally took DJ out. Too little too late, how Hawes isn't even in the rotation tells it all aswell as doc's offseason moves weakened this team.
DeleteCP3 needs to shoot 20fga for them to have a chance of winning and be in attack mode from the off they're always better when he plays like that. Pressure is on CP3 he can hardly make it past rd1 in the playoffs and this is why I think they will push it to a game 7 which ultimately Spurs will win because of better exp/efficiency.
Missing out on Spurs or Clippers for next rd doesn't really matter there's too many picks that produce good pra that can cover them even then the match ups are with high scoring team where the teams 3/4/5 options will score better than what they have this series.
I'm going CP3
hack-a-shaq strategy does look ugly for bball. however, i'd keep jordan in the game if i'm the coach. of course i ain't.
DeleteEasy pick for me too with CP3. He's facing another 1st round elimination and he will play at his best level trying to avoid it. I bet on a BIG game for him tonight.
Delete#neverbetagainstthespurs, now and in the next round against houston. Their dynasty can finish only against GSW imho.
My big dilemma is about friday pick: D-Will, perfect for a game 6 at home facing elimination, or Thaddeus Young? The latter can be a good differential, owned by just 4% right now, compared to Deron's 39! 4 people out of 10 are picking him!! A part for the 47 PRA game, he had poor performances, and T-Young could have one of his 25/30 PRA, why not! Something to consider, tomorrow:)
Good luck guys!
in this case, the cold pick strategy is not recommended. too risky. pick dwill
DeleteI was a bit disappointed with Brook Lopez last night, the latest instance where I decide between 2 players and get the worse amount and most likely worse combination between them combined in the games I pick them. Even worse most of these have resulted in a loss of double digit PAR, so my luck has killed my percentile, an embarrassing 35!
ReplyDeleteAll my player combinations (choices I decide between) are in the wrong order:
1st player, PAR and differential with other choice(s) that game
2nd player, PAR and differential with other choice(s) that game
Cumulative PAR and margin
Damian Lillard G1 25, -22
LaMarcus Aldridge G2 39, +18
Combined 64, -4
Kyle Lowry G2 12, -19
DeMar DeRozan 44, +18
Combined 56, -1
This may not look so bad at -1 but the key factor is, if I took DeRozan first, I would have never taken Lowry and had either Ellis or Nowitzki in G3 when they got 45 and 46 respectively instead of the much more pedestrian PARs I got, see next combo.
Dirk Nowitzki 28, -12
Monta Ellis 36, 0
Combined 64, -12 Worst 2 player combination order yet!
It is actually and even worse net drop than if I took DeRozan in his G2 (despite 13 less PAR after all it's about combined PAR not 1 single pick), Nowitzki in his G3 and Ellis G4 who combined for 117 in 3 picks as oppossed to 120 in 4 picks with Lowry's 12. Even a SUPER lowly 4 (hey Danny Green!) from the mystery pick I would have taken on the day that I would have no longer had neither Nowitzki or Ellis would meant more PAR between those 4 picks, I know this sounded complicated.
Speaking it getting complicated, the next combo is 3 way, also cross team and different number of games involved for each player.
1st player then 2nd player then combination
2nd player then 3rd player then combination
Nicolas Batum G4 29, -10 Biggest factor is Portland winning G4.
Brook Lopez G5, 20, -3
Combined 49, -13
Brook Lopez G5, 20, -11
It was only -4 with 3 minutes left, then JJ scored 8 points to BL doing nothing but assisting 1 of his 3s.
Joe Johnson G6 ??, ??
Combined ??, ??
3 way Combination ???, ???
Currently have a combined 233 PAR, -30 then it could be if I just flipped the orders around, afterall the chances of that happening are the same as this but the game hasn't listened, it's the HIGHEST PAR needed NOT THE LOWEST! All that frustration for just 30 PAR? I haven't even mentioned 3/4 players who decided to give me their worst showings of their respective series.
My bad 2/3 as Tyreke Evans 14 in G4 still beat a 2 in G1 when he got hurt.
DeletePlayer, PAR in game picked, differential with 2nd worst game, differential with best game
Kyle Lowry 12, -7, -21
Isaiah Thomas 8, -22, -29
*Brook Lopez 20, -7, -19
*stands to be worst par, current differentials
35 is not your true percentile, at least coz you still have players for next round. Others who don't will drop
DeleteWhat the he//! Blake Griffin only has 15 PAR at halftime! What is wrong with him? Oh aceee06 picked him so he has to have an awful game. I'm the most unlucky player in DTTF, get to pick a great player like him only once each (like any other player) and this is what I get? I didn't pick him in G5 since the series was not only tied but the Clippers had gained homecourt advantage, he got 51 in a loss, (a perfect DTTF play) and I feared the Clippers could win... 1 loss later, a return of HC back to SA and the brink of elimination and I had to take BG, afterall it's bad enough that I'm losing CP if the Spurs win or either Kawhi Leonard or Tim Duncan if the Clippers come back, but under 40 from Blake Griffin is a DTTFs disaster! I've had enough of them but this is a must success pick!
ReplyDelete29 after 3.
Deleteyou'll get your 40
There is another disaster going on for DTTFs purposes... the Clippers are winning!
Deletehaha
Deletebe happy with the 44
g7 baby!
Decision time, Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, or DeAndre Jordan for Game 7? Anyways, it's going to be awesome! Who cares about how this affects my DTTF chances, I'm pumped that this is going 7! This series deserves a 7th game!
ReplyDeleteTimmy D for me
DeleteThe Clippers won! The Clippers won! It's great for LOB city and their fans but there is a major worry for DTTFs picks! Are the visiting teams really going to win 4 games in a row? Has that even happened before in the NBA?
ReplyDeletenumbers don't matter now. i think g7 is going to be an even fight. it's up in the air
DeleteWhoa now, with the Clippers winning G6, its time that the real DTTF stars rolling. This is the time where luck plays a lot and one wrong pick could set you back 20-40 PRA. Picked Paul today with the notion that the Clips will win. I haven't picked a Spur yet but my gut tells me that they still have the edge in this series. That is why I am prepared to pick a Clipper in G7 regardless of the outcome.
ReplyDeleteFor tomorrow, it will be Deron for me. He will come out firing (hopefully not misfiring) on all cylinders for Brooklyn as they stave off elimination. He also plays better at home and has a record of showing up big at elim games, like Iso Joe.
I was in the 2% that had Giannis last night. What a disaster.
ReplyDelete