Strategy: Sticking To Your Guns

The Heat and the Spurs finished off their respective opponents at home in Game 5, and they are just waiting for the winners of the Wizards-Pacers and Clippers-Thunder series. My pick for Game 6 remains to be Chris Paul and I am hoping for a strong showing in a loss -- that would be a nice farewell gift for me from the Conference Semifinals.

As we near the Conference Finals, let me touch upon the subject of "sticking to your guns" and "chickening out".


Sticking to your guns. This is defined as picking a winner at the beginning of a series, and staying the course of NOT picking from the expected winner throughout the series. Unless of course you reach a certain threshold of changing plans.

Chickening out. This is defined as changing a pick plan due to an event that you think changes the fate of a series. The event may be an injury (e.g. last year's Westbrook), lack of good picks, or most commonly a reversal of win-loss record. This may be a home court steal or a comfortable lead of an expected loser from the expected winner.

Some examples of changing pick plans would be:

• Road win in Game 1. Many writers still hedge their series winners on Game 1 winners. I don't believe it much though. But after the Nets won Game 1 in Toronto, 25% of DTTF picked Kyle Lowry in Game 2. 
• Even series 1-1. A superset of the above, except that it can be a Game 2 win. Winning 1 of the first two road games means the lower seed has chance to lead 3-1 as they are favoured to win Games 3 and 4 at home.
• 2-1 lead. Sometimes a "stolen home court advantage" is not enough, but a 2-1 lead by the lower seed may be enough to sway some to change pick plans.  For example, I picked Tony Parker in Game 3 after the Mavs led 2-1. Go Mavs! :P
• Road sweep 2-0. Who wouldn't jump ship? This spells a chance for a sweep. After the Wizards won both games in Chicago, 21% of DTTF jumped ship and went ahead and picked Joakim Noah in Game 3.
• Elimination game. Sometimes even the strong-willed fan cannot ignore it any longer. 64% of DTTF chose Dwight Howard and James Harden after falling 1-3. 42% picked Paul George after falling 2-3.

There's also that risk of waiting too long to switch. Wait too long and you might lose the chance to pick stars from a team.

And of course there are double-reversals. That's changing pick plans at least twice in a series. That's the worst kind because chickened out twice and should have stuck to your guns. Hawks won 1-0, pick a Pacer. Pacers evened series, pick a Hawk. Hawk led 2-1, pick a Pacer. Pacers evened again, pick a Hawk. Hawks led 3-2, pick a Pacer. Pacers evened yet again, pick a Hawk.

Sometimes there should be a point where the madness stops. That's where that threshold must be drawn.

I promise, by the power of Grayskull, from here on out I will stick to my guns, and change plans only on 2-0, on elimination game, or lack of good picks. Those are my thresholds.

Even though this year has been a crazy postseason, there's no excuse for all of us not to raise our game coming into the next round. And hopefully stick to our guns.