The previous three years, I relied heavily on players' statistics on home games versus ones on the road. I cannot say there was any distinct success or failure there, but I can say there was no true pattern.
Last year I decided I'd look at those stats still, but only let them affect my pick if and only if the difference is staggering. Didn't work still.
Last week, I wondered if home stats mean so much more than road stats. Players with significantly better stats on the road are very very rare. On the other hand, players with better stats at home are a dime a dozen. Thus, this factor should only be taken account with players at home court.
Today, I am thinking these stats do not matter. At all. It is each player's specific motivation at the correct time that dictates if he has higher chance to perform, especially at home. Here are examples for Day Five...
Dwight Howard. He will be a free agent and for all I know he'll be staying with the Lakers (who are we kidding?). He needs to convince Kupchak and the Buss family upfront at the Staples that he deserves the max deal. Home games 3 and 4 are where you should pick him, not this game 2 on the road.
Josh Smith. He will also be a free agent, but some surmise that he will get his max deal somewhere else, not in Atlanta. So it's a potential elimination game when you should pick him, regardless of home or away. He'll be mindful of those that will be pointing to what he has done the last time they saw him. As he is injured, he'll pace himself and save his energy for that last game. Settle for Al Horford in the meantime.
James Harden. He's already settled in a nice contract; there's no reason for him to be playing any differently at home than away. So he gets my pick now ahead of Howard and Smith.
Fear the beard!
Last year I decided I'd look at those stats still, but only let them affect my pick if and only if the difference is staggering. Didn't work still.
Last week, I wondered if home stats mean so much more than road stats. Players with significantly better stats on the road are very very rare. On the other hand, players with better stats at home are a dime a dozen. Thus, this factor should only be taken account with players at home court.
Today, I am thinking these stats do not matter. At all. It is each player's specific motivation at the correct time that dictates if he has higher chance to perform, especially at home. Here are examples for Day Five...
Dwight Howard. He will be a free agent and for all I know he'll be staying with the Lakers (who are we kidding?). He needs to convince Kupchak and the Buss family upfront at the Staples that he deserves the max deal. Home games 3 and 4 are where you should pick him, not this game 2 on the road.
Josh Smith. He will also be a free agent, but some surmise that he will get his max deal somewhere else, not in Atlanta. So it's a potential elimination game when you should pick him, regardless of home or away. He'll be mindful of those that will be pointing to what he has done the last time they saw him. As he is injured, he'll pace himself and save his energy for that last game. Settle for Al Horford in the meantime.
James Harden. He's already settled in a nice contract; there's no reason for him to be playing any differently at home than away. So he gets my pick now ahead of Howard and Smith.
Fear the beard!
Ah, how I loathe this game...
ReplyDeleteDay 2 I picked the 3rd best Hawk in Horford. So what did I do for an encore? Pick the 4th best Grizzlie in Randolph. Z-Bo had his second weak game in a row while Conley was all over the board, even Tony Allen got a 16/10! Sigh. At least Memphis lost.
Tonight it´s one of the Bucks, I chose Monta Ellis over Jennings in the faint hope that the Heat will shut Jennings down after his comments before the series. Well, we know what will happen ;)
With the injury to Lee my pick for day 1 (Curry, 32PRA) got even worse, because a) I can´t pick Lee any more and b) with Lee out it just might happen that Curry is going crazy and scoring 40 pts in the next few games.
Tomorrow, I will try Pau Gasol. I´ll save Harden and Howard for home games, maybe Smith and Teague for next year (why o why did I start with Horford?).
You are warned.
Hope Gasol duplicates his Game1 performance. G'luck!
DeleteI'm going Gasol as well. In the playoffs I think you can really throw out home and away and focus on who has the best matchups and how crucial the game is.
DeleteMonta and Jennings are great, but the D focuses on them so its unpredicatable if they'll have good games or not making it a risky pick. They have disadvantages in their matchups because of the tough D. While a guy like Illyasova is a sleeper because the Heat have a weak interior D.
Z-Bo is pretty much the same. To stop the Grizzlies you shut down Z-Bo and Gasol, which is why Conley has a career night.
My approach is to avoid taking any player against elite D's since it brings all the stats down and is risky. Look for guys who have great matchup advantages are going to get a lot of opportunities.
Except maybe on the #1 guy on a losing team. You will need to pick him sooner or later regardless.
DeleteI agree, Taong.
ReplyDeleteI have 3 picks on Hawks (Teague, Smith, Hordford); 2 on Lakers (Gasol, Howard) and only one on Rockets (Harden).
This year, I decided not to look at stats. Just follow my instint... As I give some options to Los Angeles, I have two names in mind for this pick: Harden and Smith; and as Smith is marked with an injury, I will rely on Harden.
Hoping for a close game.
DeleteDarn! Jennings was awful tonight. I should have picked Ilyasova or Dunleavy. Who would have known, right?
ReplyDeleteNoone would have known. I would have picked Jennings too if I didn't have Curry.
DeleteMiami clamped on the guards. Sic
Thought about Jennings myself. But I had him in regular fantasy and he's been streaky all year so he usually follows a big scoring game with a dud and I gambled that would still be the case.
DeleteI think Ilyasova will be a sleeper and a better choice than Ellis or Jennings going forward. He can light it up, shoot the 3 and rebound and Miami is terrible on the boards with a weak interior D. I'm probably going to use him in game 4 and hope he kills it trying to extend the series.
Thanks for the tip, Seda. We'll see if he's viable on that date. And if Heat continues to clamp on the guards in Game3.
Delete