Before discussing my pick for April 20, let's revisit my past picks and where they stand with regards to our strategy of picking the best players (based on PRA) in the losing teams.
In day 1, only Dwight Howard had the better PRA (66) than my pick LaMarcus Aldridge (35) among the losing teams. I still think Orlando will give up a fight, but if they lose the series Dwight would have been the right pick. If Orlando moves on, LaMarcus was the right pick.
In day 2, I picked Zach Randolph (42 PRA), and only Kobe Bryant had a better PRA (43) among the teams that lost that day. Of course, you cannot really expect the defending champion Lakers to lose the whole series. If the Lakers does win the series, Chris Paul would have been the right pick (54).
In day 3, I picked Danny Granger (25 PRA). Notice that 25 is not that high of a PRA, but during that day his was the highest among the losing teams. If the Pacers lose the series (and they will), picking Granger was spot-on.
So as of April 18, this is my standing..
If you look at these other guys' picks, they seem to be following the same strategy as ours. Except maybe for Chris Webber who doesn't have a clue on how to play this game hehe!
Now with my pick... I am not touching the series of Grizzlies@Spurs and Hornets@Lakers by virtue of the uncertainty that was brought about by the game 1 upsets. I'll zoom-in on the Nuggets as the Thunder poise to take that series. Only 2 Nuggets are worth looking at: Nene Hilario (31) and Danilo Gallinari (24). Raymond Felton (22) may be worth the gamble while he is still taking minutes away from the injured Arron Afflalo, but I wouldn't want to bet on someone who comes off the bench.. yet.
Just basing on Game 1's box score, Nene may be the better pick. He played well against the Thunder but I don't think he can repeat that performance vs Perkins. It may be worthwhile to note that Nene's away PRA and career vs the Thunder is only 24. I expect a little letdown as the Thunder adjusts.
Gallinari, on the other hand, has a better away PRA (22.8) than home PRA (21.7). I also think that Arron's absence in the wing makes Gallinari take up the slack, so I am picking up Gallinari before Arron is forced to come back to the lineup. Note that while I'm picking Gallinari, I still predict Nene will have the better PRA on Wednesday. This pick is highly based on the away PRA, and that I'm reserving Nene for a home game when I can get more benefit from him. It's all in the timing.
In day 1, only Dwight Howard had the better PRA (66) than my pick LaMarcus Aldridge (35) among the losing teams. I still think Orlando will give up a fight, but if they lose the series Dwight would have been the right pick. If Orlando moves on, LaMarcus was the right pick.
In day 2, I picked Zach Randolph (42 PRA), and only Kobe Bryant had a better PRA (43) among the teams that lost that day. Of course, you cannot really expect the defending champion Lakers to lose the whole series. If the Lakers does win the series, Chris Paul would have been the right pick (54).
In day 3, I picked Danny Granger (25 PRA). Notice that 25 is not that high of a PRA, but during that day his was the highest among the losing teams. If the Pacers lose the series (and they will), picking Granger was spot-on.
So as of April 18, this is my standing..
| . | ME | Ernie | Charles | Kenny | C-Webb |
| Points | 102 | 100 | 114 | 102 | 97 |
| Rank | 5,080 | 5.740 | 2,459 | 5,080 | 6,682 |
| Percentile | 73% | 70% | 87% | 73% | 65% |
Now with my pick... I am not touching the series of Grizzlies@Spurs and Hornets@Lakers by virtue of the uncertainty that was brought about by the game 1 upsets. I'll zoom-in on the Nuggets as the Thunder poise to take that series. Only 2 Nuggets are worth looking at: Nene Hilario (31) and Danilo Gallinari (24). Raymond Felton (22) may be worth the gamble while he is still taking minutes away from the injured Arron Afflalo, but I wouldn't want to bet on someone who comes off the bench.. yet.
Just basing on Game 1's box score, Nene may be the better pick. He played well against the Thunder but I don't think he can repeat that performance vs Perkins. It may be worthwhile to note that Nene's away PRA and career vs the Thunder is only 24. I expect a little letdown as the Thunder adjusts.
Gallinari, on the other hand, has a better away PRA (22.8) than home PRA (21.7). I also think that Arron's absence in the wing makes Gallinari take up the slack, so I am picking up Gallinari before Arron is forced to come back to the lineup. Note that while I'm picking Gallinari, I still predict Nene will have the better PRA on Wednesday. This pick is highly based on the away PRA, and that I'm reserving Nene for a home game when I can get more benefit from him. It's all in the timing.
Week 1, April 20: Danilo Gallinari |   |
What about Chandler? He had nice games on the regular season. Afflalo will be back in game 3. That means less minutes for Chandler ;) Lawson and Felton are injured and have terrible matchup with Westbrook. Gallinari will be defending Durantula and i don't think Néne will do it again. Martin...hummmm risky pick.
ReplyDeleteIt is currently game time. 1st q. nene is 0/4. ty and gallo only bright spots. Denver stinking it up score 15-31.
ReplyDeletehalftime
ReplyDeletebah denver game is a mess pick-wise
spurs pick really looking like better at this point
eventually and as expected nene got his average PRA. however, my pick gallo stunk big-time.
ReplyDeleteas they say.. after rise (melo 65) comes the fall (gallo 11)
tao- Gallo isn't playing smart. Nene got it together except @ the free throw line. Bad game for the Nugs.
ReplyDeletebad game indeed. i don't know what happened to gallo. he didn't get many touches in first half and didn't get to rhytm the rest of the way. kudos to okc defense. i'm picking nene next.
ReplyDelete