Final Four Recap

Alright peepz! Finals is lotsa days away. I just want to dedicate this area for recaps.

Here's mine..

I haven't got any great round yet. The first two were average I think, and the last round was particularly awful. Hopefully the Finals changes that.

Rockets were awful. Hawks too some. Good thing we have a chance in the Finals to pick players in a "winning effort" for a change.

Bad bad bad.

How's yours?

13 comments:

  1. Not great Round 3 for me. I was very happy with my Hawks - got Teague at 43 (#1 for round), Horford at 20 (#2), Millsap at 23 (#3), and Carroll at 16 (#1). So mostly in the upper half of their best in the round, and two at the top. For the Warriors, I got Thompson at 21 (#4), Green at 27 (#4), Barnes at 7 (#5), Bogut at 12 (#4), and Curry at 40 (#4). So all of my Warriors were, at best, in their second worst for the round. Classic example of just being off with the picks. Happens.

    Currently at 1046 PRA, Rank 3381, Percentile 86

    Of interesting note, there were two decisions I made in DTTF this year that have affected me in the largest way. Two moves I almost made that would have put me from "doing OK" to "one of the contenders". Hear me out:

    Decision #1: Back in game 2 of the semi-finals, I wanted Gasol in game 3, but felt forced to pick him in game 2 because I wasn't ready to jump on the Hawks. I considered DeMarre Carroll, because I worried about the potential upcoming LeBron matchup. I decided to just pick Gasol, and got a 24, his worst performance. What would have happened if I picked Carroll? Let's see:

    Game 2: Picked Gasol, 24 PRA. If I picked Carrol, 32 PRA. +8 PRA
    Game 3: I picked Beal, 28 PRA. If I still had Gasol, that was the game I wanted him in from the start. If I picked him, 38 PRA. +10 PRA
    Game 4: I picked Porter, 12 PRA. After picking a Hawk and 2 Grizzlies, I'd be willing to pick a Wizard, like I did with Porter. But with Beal available, I pick Beal, who gets 47 PRA. +35 PRA. Huge.

    Game 5 and 6 don't change. I still switch to Wall for Game 5 and pick Conley in Game 6. What does change is game 4 of the conference finals. I don't have Carroll, who got 16 PRA, so I pick Bazemore, who gets 23 PRA. +7 PRA.

    All in all, Decision #1 of not saving Gasol for the game I wanted him cost me a whopping 60 PRA. Huge difference.

    Decision #2: Reliance on the Clippers. In game 7, I was going to pick Jordan, but felt a gut feeling of the Clippers winning and switched to Josh Smith. I got 16 PRA. If I picked Jordan, I get 33 PRA. +17 PRA. With Josh Smith available in Round 3, I certainly pick him in Game 3, for 28 PRA, instead of Harrison Barnes, for 7 PRA. +21 PRA. None of my other picks would have been affected.

    All in all, Decision #2 to rely on the Clippers cost me a whopping 38 PRA.

    Those two decisions set me back 98 PRA from where I could have been. Just goes to show, you have to get lucky and make the right decision at the right time, so that everything else falls into place.

    With those extra 98 PRA, I'd be at 1144 PRA, and ranked in the top 100. Two decisions can make all the difference.

    I'm not complaining about it. Just more of a thought exercise to see what individual moves have affected my chances the most. Those two stick out to me, because I was very close on both to going a different direction.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Points: 1,002
    Rank 6,478
    Percentile 73

    Last place in my League, 82 points behind Leader... :/
    Taong how do You think, Is There any chance to catch him?
    I already use Curry and Green form GSW and Shumpert from cavs

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 82 div 7games = 12ish

      just have to outdo your league leader by 12 each game. hard, but not impossible.

      key is lebron. try to pick him in his 60 pra game.

      also, your league lead may have used key players already, so he may fall.

      Delete
    2. He already use Lebron and Curry

      Delete
  3. hey there! I'm Alessandro ftom Italy, everyday check this blog, I think it's great! my name in DTTF is Jumphook and now in ranked 1068 (96 pct) with 1089 pts, with James, Curry, Klay, JR, Shumpert, Iguodala and Irving still available. Not bad but I was 704 entering conference finals: last round was like rummaging through trash because of saving Cleveland and golden state players.
    good luck to everybody

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. not bad indeed, Alessandro! PCT 96 and complete Cavs and Warriors, you can win your league

      Delete
  4. My picks in the third round:
    29 - Barnes, 16, a little below his average, he followed it up with a 15 and a 7, then finished this round with 22 and 31, ho-hum
    30 - Carroll, 9, ugh. Unwanted side-effect of not having picked him for game 1 in the previous round. What did he do in round 2? 27, 32, 18, 11, 24, 36. What did he do in round 3? 9, 9, 15, 16. He got hurt five minutes from the end of game 1, that explains his subsequent poor games, but the 9 in the opening game was really bad. He was the poorest of the Hawks starter in that game. Even Korver reached 19 PRA.
    31 - Thompson, 18, ugh. After Caroll I wanted to pick big points and got one Golden States Big3 players. His five games leading up to this? 30, 19, 30, 31, 21, so a bounce back was to be expected. What did he do in this round? 21, 18, 25, 29, 25. I got his 18.
    32 - Millsap, 11. After Thompson I wanted to pick big points and got one Atlantas top 2 players. He averaged 29 PRA in the eight games prior to this. He followed it up with 31 and 31. I got his 11.
    33 - Ariza, 17. My last "big name" of the Rockets. In five games this round he had 25 three times. His last game before my pick was a 14, so bounce back, blablabla. The only starter that was worse? Jason Terry, my pick for game 4.
    34 - Schröder, 1. I planned on picking Teague and Schröder for the remaining games (didn't think the Hawks could bring the series back to Atlanta). My idea was to save Teague for the elimination game because I was afraid game 3 would be a blowout (with some playing time for Schröder) and game 4 somehow competitive. Well, it didn't exactly went like my plan. Schröder, my fellow German, didn't ever play less than 10 minutes in these playoffs after getting only a few seconds in his first season. In his 10 minute game he had 10 PRA. His next shortest game lasted for 12 minutes, he got 17 PRA. This game he had 3 minutes and 1 assist. And this game went overtime. Just about my worst pick ever in this game. Too bad. Had I picked Teague, I would have gotten 43.
    35 - Terry, 20. Finally, a good pick. Relative to his average Terry was great. That he even got a 21 in the next game doesn't change anything. MFUDR!
    36 - Teague, 19. About what I expected. Teague had one game in the entire playoffs <20, when he went scoreless in Brooklyn in the blowout that was game 6 of that series. And he came from a 43. So of course he was relativley quiet with just 1 assist (prior: one time 3, one time 4, one time 5, 10 games between 6 and 8, one time 11, one time 13). The thing is, if I had picked Teague in game 3 and prepicked Schröder I would have changed that after game 3 to Bazemore who was even better than Teague in game 4 with a 23. Net loss of -46 (Schröder/Teague 1+19 vs. Teague/Bazemore 43+23)
    37 - Iguodala, 16. Okay. I had prepicked Brewer, changed it to Iggy because Brewer sucked in the series and Iggy seemed on the right track (in the series he had 9, 14, 15, 22). Brewer got 20, Iguodala missed all 4 FTs in the final minutes and had a 16.

    points: 975
    rank: 8260
    percentile: 66

    For the Finals I have left:
    Warriors: everyone but Thompson, Barnes, Iguodala
    Cavs: everyone but Irving (and Love, naturally)

    ReplyDelete
  5. And now I have to get personal, kind of :)
    I mentioned it in my rundown of the second round that I got a friend to play this game and that I passed him with my pick of Chris Paul. After that he thoroughly kicked my ass. He could mostly rely on my extremely bad picks.
    I have to go into detail how he did that.
    My picks against his picks:
    Barnes 16 vs. Green 33 (-17)
    Caroll 9 vs. Schröder 13 (-4)
    Thompson 18 vs. Terry 14 (+4)
    Millsap 11 vs. Korver 14 (-3)
    Ariza 17 vs. Smith 28 (-11)
    Schröder 1 vs. Teague 43 (-42)
    Terry 10 vs. Ariza 25 (-15)
    Teague 19 vs. Horford 9 (+10)
    Iguodala 16 vs. Jones 1 (+15)
    Difference in round 3: Minus 63
    Difference in timing for players picked in this round:
    Schröder 1 vs. 13 (-12)
    Terry 20 vs. 14 (+6)
    Ariza 17 vs. 25 (-8)
    Teague 19 vs. 43 (-24)
    Not too shabby. So hats off to you, Kevin. I doubt very much I can still get you in the Finals, I am 44 behind you and we both still have Curry and James.

    By the way, for the next to games I have my two best Warriors, Curry and Green. My current plan is picking Green in game 1 and Curry in game 2, just because most people will probably pick Curry in game 1. We'll see what becomes of that plan or if I change anything.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, my mistake. It has to read:
      Terry 20 vs. Ariza 25 (-5)
      Difference in round 3: Minus 53
      That's still a lot.
      By the way, for game 2 of the Atlanta - Cleveland series I was briefly considering picking Schröder after my friend got a 13 out of him in game 1. I decided against it to pick Millsap to get big PRA. Schröder was the Atlanta top scorer (13) of that game, got a 17.
      As explained earlier, in that particular game I would have preferred Korvers 14 (11 in the first quarter) to Millsaps 11 any day of the week because of their averages.

      Delete
  6. Well last round was a tough one, besides Teague getting 43, it was otherwise a struggle, however it ended on a sweet note with Jason Terry putting up 21 PAR which was tied for my 2nd best score in that round. I played the song Jet by Paul McCartney in honor of his nickname and my pick of him and it worked out pretty well I must say.
    The rest of my picks in the WCFs were disappointing at best. As for the ECFs, A I said the Hawks would win going into the series, and looked like an idiot with the Cavs sweeping them, B unlike with the West, I did not expect invisible picks the biggest being Hortford, who showed no heart despite being ejected the previous game with 9 lousy PAR! Normally invisibility would not be a surprise following a demoralizing loss or an 0-3 series deceit, let alone both but I thought Hortford would do well (even if all the other Hawks didn't) because of the previous game's ejection. He didn't seem to care about personal pride at all. I'd say more but I have a major thunderstorm in my area so I'll post my recap at another time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My 3rd round recap:
      D29 Klay Thompson 21: Well here we go, the 1st of many disappointing picks (7 to be exact) in the conference finals, this one really sucks because A I had to pick some Warriors thanks to the Clippers collapse, B he's one of the splash brothers granted not as good as Curry and C he had 16 at half meaning he got FIVE PAR the entire freakin 2nd half.
      D30 Iman Shumpert 13: Who knew that the Cavs would win the series without Love let alone in a freakin sweep? Well apparently many people knew they'd advance (not sure about the sweep though), except me. Not only that but Shumpert of course was the only Cavs starter to naturally suck that night (Irving was bad too but he was hurt). I picked Hawks the rest of the series, but the sweep cost me Carroll (or better yet Bazemore as Carroll was invisible all series).
      D31 Harrison Barnes 15: The 2nd Warrior I had to use thanks to the Clippers collapse and another under-average result.
      D32 Kyle Korver 14: Another brutal pick, this one had a promising start just like Klay Thomson, with 11 after 1 quarter and apparently all 14 at halftime, only to do absolute zero in the 3rd quarter, getting injured and lost for the season near the end of that quarter.
      D33 Terrence Jones 11: Not a good performance and he should have played for the entire 4th quarter in that 35 point blowout instead of less than half but 5 of his 11 came in garbage time allowing me to salvage double digits and as bad as this was he had 2 worse performances including a ONE in G5.
      D34 Jeff Teague 43: Rejoice rejoice, there is life afterall with my picks (at least one of them), I was deciding between Teague and Hortford in G3 and 4 and fortunately chose the right order for a change (despite the disaster I got with Hortford), as I got 14 more PAR than if I went the other way. With Hortford getting ejected, the other Hawks stood up and took this game to OT, giving me 7 more PAR than I had after regulation (and probably should have won it).
      D35 Andrew Bogut 12: After 1 day of relief, back to misery with zero regular points by Bogut with just 1 shot attempt, I was thinking of taking him in G3 but did not trust a 1 game sample of 26 after he had a NINE and FOUR in the two prior games. Between getting only 12 from Bogut in G4 instead of his 25 in G3 and Terrence Jones 11 in G3 instead of 21 in G4, I lost 23 PAR. For every combination order I get right, I get 3 or 4 wrong.
      D36 Al Horford 9: By far the worst pick in the round, not only as the lowest PAR but he not only had his worst career playoff game (what a surprise as my pick), but not even half of his 2nd lowest PAR, which was 19 in the previous game thanks to an (almost) halfime ejection. A subpar game would not have been generally surprising with a demoralizing loss in OT + 0-3 series deficit, but given he was ejected, I would figure he would have personal pride... Nope no heart at all and he resulted in one of my 3 worst PAR picks this season who was far below their 2nd worst series PAR (-10, along with Isiah Thomas -22 and Dwight Howard -16).
      D27 Jason Terry 21: Glad the Rockets forced a G5 afterall or I would have finished that round with that heartless Hortford disgrace. Terry's 21 (helped by 2 3s that were actually tied with Josh Smith for most by Rockets players that game) happened to be tied for my 2nd best score of the round and much more acceptable than the other 21 I got at the beginning of the round.
      After 3 rounds I have the embarrassment (thanks to Kyle Lowry, Isiah Thomas, Dwight Howard AND Al Hortford) of entering the finals below the quadruple digit mark in points, with 996 and a mere 71 percentile. Now Taong says he hasn't had any great rounds but is in the 92 percentile, I'd gladly trade places, as he has had 2 great rounds I'm sure considering playing the game the right way in terms of trying to picks players on the teams that are going to lose.... until this round! Bring on the FINALS!

      Delete
  7. What do you guys think about Klay Thompson ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought Klay would play better vs Rockets according to matchup stats, but Terry really played decent defense, just enough to deny him touches.

      Good thing though I didn't pick him in Rockets Game 1, coz his low PRAs in that series never really gave me a reason to pick him.

      Now with the concussion, it may be safe to delay his picking. Wait for a good game or Game 2 or 5.

      But if you're really in risking it all for a boom-or-bust gamble (if you are already behind and nothing to lose), pick him in G1 or at his game of lowest ownership.

      Delete