Finals Strategy: Coldest Pick

In the ESPN 1-N-Done forums, I came upon a strategy that I have not weighed heavily before. It gives someone a chance to overtake people ahead of him/her. Now remember I said "chance", not "guarantee". Here's how it works...

Given: Three more games for the shortest series length (e.g. Spurs sweep). Lay out your three best players remaining (say, Dwyane Wade, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker). Among these three, pick the not-so-hottest player owned in Game 2 (say Wade 22%, Duncan 11%, Parker 9%), so that means you pick Parker.

The strategy is the anti-thesis of mirroring or shadowing someone. If you pick the same player as the ones ahead of you, you will ensure that you will rise and dip with the masses, thus ensuring that you more or less preserve your rank and percentile. BUT, it will never allow you to overtake them. Granted, not everyone in front of you will pick the same player, so you can only assume that the owners ahead of you will probably (I say probably, not surely) pick the hottest picks. In this strategy, you are hoping that differentiating from the pack will give you the chance to overtake them.

You will eventually pick Wade, Duncan and Parker. It's just not in the order that the popular mass are taking. You may ask, "What if Parker sucked in Game 2?" The answer to that one is, "Well then you are screwed!" I am sure that that is one of your first thoughts (the human mind can easily realize the negative much more than the positive). But ask yourself though, "What if Parker did great while the others did just average?" Then you'll see that's were you achieve the overtaking. If that still does not make you comfortable, you can say that the gravity of success is equal to the gravity of failure. No blood, no glory.

The strategy has some flaws, I am sure you have a few you'll write in the comments section. That is why it shouldn't be used all alone by itself. If you are to use this strategy, follow the steps, but in the end you will still have to use your other strategies or methods or tactics to see if that pick does make sense. Say this strategy say pick Parker, but your usual strategy (say home and away) contradicts it, then do not employ it.

If you are desperate to leap forward, try it.