Round 2: Pick Plan

Here are my predictions for the Conference Semifinals:
Thunder in 7. Knicks in 5. San Antonio in 5. Miami in 5.
I will be explaining the reason for these in future blogs. So for now, feel free to post away in the comments.

Here is my pick chart for Games 1 to 4, assuming sweeps. I'll extend table later if necessary.

MayOKC
MEM
NY
IND
SAN
GS
MIA
CHI
Default If Mem
2-X
If Ind
2-X
If GS
2-X
If Chi
2-X
5 G1 G1
George
6
G1 G1 Noah
7 G2 G2
Conley
8
G2 G2 Bogut
10

G3 G3 Deng
11 G3 G3

Hibbert
?
G4 G4 Jack Parker LeBron
? G4 G4
West Durant Anthony


The above table assumes the higher seeds win (although the Thunder series is unpredictable). I have put soon-to-be free agents Jarrett Jack and David West in elimination games. From then I have placed best available players on losing teams into Games 1 to 3. If a lower seed leads 2-X, then my pick changes to the opposing team. I will update this table as games extend beyond Game 4.

This is just an exercise just to plan ahead and see how it looks against our pool of players. For me, this means I am using three-player deep from each losing team in just four games (I already picked Z-Bo, Gasol, Curry, Boozer and Nate). As games extend, I have to use a 4th player (~ 20 PRA). The longer the series gets, the less quality of players I can put forward. I just wish these matches end quickly. I know, I know, it is too much to ask for.

::cross-fingers::

27 comments:

  1. I think both Indiana and Memphis are gonna win their series. okc can't compete without Westbrook and the Knicks were subpar against Boston - too much Anthony too little else. if Indiana can tighten things up defensively and Paul George can play consistently on the offensive end they can win this in 6 or maybe even 5.

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    1. Anonymous, yep substitute picks to the other team if that is your prediction. You should base your picks on them. You have good points as well.

      As for me, I'll stick with it, but as always open to changes. Those changes will only have to come as results come in for the first few games.

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  2. I still have Stephen Curry and Z-Bo, when do you think i should use them?

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    1. Stephen Curry as soon as possible because of his being prone to injury.

      Z-Bo wait until Thunder leads 2-X or 3-X.

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  3. Thanks! Its hard to decide whether i should use him tomorrow or wait until he returns home? Whats your opinion?

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    1. Do you mean Curry? Any. His stats don't favor neither home nor away

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    2. Hope you picked Curry. What a game and 2OT really helps pad stats.

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    3. Thanks for the hope, but no I already used Curry in Round 1. Gratz on the pick though :)

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  4. I saw that you didn't put in a pick yesterday. Was that some sort of stratgy or did you wait too long before you made up you mind? The way I see it somebody starting today with zero players picked has everyone available for the 2X round whereas some of us used some pretty good players hoping to get a decent start in the first round. I managed to put up an above average number for round one and minimized 'selection damage' to just two players, both Bulls. I really felt like the nets were gonna pull that one out, so I used Boozer early and then kept away from it till game 7. Since I hadn't used a single net i figure I'd take go all or nothing picking Noah and hoping to see ALL those Nets points in the next round. Can't get em all right eh? Noah got me 40 which was great for that round, but in round 2 he can have a bad game and give me that much. I almost just didn't pick anyone from that game 7. Might have been the smarter thing to do. The penality for picking a 1 2 or 3 from a team is only going to go up if we get too greedy this round. Seeing Durant post a 112 in round two... Really puts the multiplier into prospective.

    I've still got Curry in my back pocket, he is just too valuable. I know GS will lose so I'm going to pick heavy from them, but I have to be sure before I use him. With so many people having spent him early it is a key chance to make up a large amount of points. With my luck though he will get injured, like Lin did when I picked him. or Ejected like Howard when I picked him, lol. So today, I'm going with Jarrett Jack and it looks like about 25% of people are thinking the same thing right now. But I'm willing to wager that it is because they don't have Curry.

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    1. Based on what you said, VitalViper, you are in great shape in 1-N-Done. I'll be eating your dust hehe!

      Gotta pick Curry asap because he is prone to injury, Jarrett in an elim game (free agents play well on last games.)

      Nope, I just plainly missed the pick in 1-N-Done (which will be a blessing in disguise if Pacers advance). No kids, don't do this at home :P

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    2. The Bulls win really has me worried. I really expect Miami to still win the series but.. what if they don't? I'll really be in trouble. At least those games get plaied with the GS games for now so I'll be GS Heavy till I am forced to pick from that series again.

      You managed to talk me into Curry. I think he will be most healthy tonight since he has had the rest and stayed off his foot. and Jack's best games will be later in the series.

      I've already picked a Pacer but I'm not stressing too much. With the matchups all turning out rather questionable I'm going to try to play it safe and spread my picks out between the Grizz and Nicks. Since I didn't pick a Griz in round one it seems I have a leg up on most so right now I have Randolph as my pick for tomorrow. Subject to change! lol

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    3. LeBron was not assertive enough... maybe something to do with the MVP awarding. I don't expect Miami to bow down nor lose this series.

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    4. Yea, a lot of people seem to forget that even last year they let teams 'out effort' them and still came away with each close series in the end. From what I could tell, they had a "Well it is only game one" attitude. But from most boards I'm looking at it seems like a lot of people went with Noah yesterday and had Boozer in round one. So I'm pretty even there.

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    5. Yup including me. Noah had a decent night but not to expectations after lighting it up in the last game with the Nets. Boozer had it rough.

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    6. Most picked Jarrett Jack today. I hope you guys were saved from not doing so.

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    7. Yea, you talked me out of Jack and into Curry. Curry is on his way to netting me 100 points while Jack sits at 20. I'm getting the payoff I wanted by saving Curry and I'm glad I didn't wait. They are bound to make adjustments to prevent this from happening again, plus with games every other day the foot is only going to get worse. Nice to see my name sneaking up that score board.

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    8. It's not over. Still have overtime. Congratz are already in place for that Curry pick, even if they win

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    9. Yea, I was excited to see overtime, hoping to get even more points. +16 points since the end of regulation. I'll take that! And the Spurs pull out the win? I feel like I should go get a lotto ticket. Curry puts up 44 and they take the 'old' Spurs into double overtime and still can't take the win... This one is in the books.

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    10. Actually don't go buy a lotto ticket.
      Nature balances itself hehe!
      You only do that if you scored a PRA of 2... two straight days.

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  5. Well, that were the first games of Round 2.

    OKC wins game 1 at home that they never should have won, leading only 11 seconds from the end, and Indiana steal homecourt at MSG.
    All five Pacer starters had 26-28 PRA, so 26 from West is not that bad, all things considered. But should you start picking Knicks at once now? Probably for game 2, because they play at home, that might net better PRA.
    OKC did what the Nuggets did in their first game, they won a clincher with a great play in the end. We all know how that ended, and we all know that the Grizzlies do not necessarily get distracted by an ugly loss.
    So, start picking Thunder now? Hmmm...

    For today, everybody expects the Spurs and the Heat to advance, so this should be easy, right? I am only missing Boozer and Curry, there should be enough guys to chose from, right? Then why is it that difficult? I will probably go with a Warrior, they had more rest than the Bulls.

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    1. No, not enough reason to start picking Knicks yet. Same with Thunder.

      I'd pick a Grizzly over a Pacer though on Day 3. I'm just looking for more reasons to do so.

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    2. Yeah, but the problem with picking a Grizzly is that I, as have lots of other participants, have already picked 2 of them, the best ones at that. If I pick one now I should be reeeeally sure the Thunder are going to advance, because if Memphis goes to the conference finals and I have to start picking the likes of Allen and, I don´t know, Bayless or Pondexter, doesn´t fill me with joy.

      Ah, this game is driving me nuts :)

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    3. The trick is you don't need to be reeeeally sure if you are left with options each of which you really can't be sure of.

      Yes, it's driving me nuts as well hehe

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  6. OMGeeks! Bulls win Game1!!! Haha! Shocks!

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  7. Thankfully after falling to as low as 68% I'm climbing again and up to 73% tonight.

    I'm pretty confident that Indiana is going to win their series. The Knicks got exposed by Boston for relying too heavily on Melo and JR and really only won that series because the Celtics have no rebounding and Pierce struggled to find his shot. Indiana has an even better defense, but has a beasts like Hibbert and West to grab boards and is more athletic.

    Indy in 6.

    I think the Heat might be in for a shocker. They were able to avoid the Bulls last year. IMO even with all the injuries they are the one team the Heat really have to be scared of. They can force the Heat into a halfcourt offense where they struggle, and exploit thier lack of size and rebounding. Most of all they aren't afraid of Miami and if they get back Deng and Hinrich they're really going to make it tough. I'm staying away from that series as long as I can. I honestly think the Heat's storied season might end in a nightmare. Thanks to LeBron the Heat will have a few impressive wins, but the Bulls just don't quit and Miami's matchup with the Bucks did nothing to prepare them for Chicago's intensity.

    Bulls in 7 (with D-Rose making an emotional return around game 5)

    Thunder vs. Memphis

    This one I have no clue about. Durant is too good, and Memphis struggles to score at times. This one goes 7 and I'm staying away from it as long as possible.

    Memphis in 7

    San Antonio vs. Golden State

    I originally had SA winning in 5. Then tonights game happened and I was kicking myself for using Curry in the first round and for 3 quarters wondering if GS might actually be a cinderella team behind his incredible (ridiculously incredible) shooting. But when they let SA back in, and without Duncan on the floor (I blame Jackson for keeping Bogut on the bench all that time - but I digress), it's clear they don't have the experience to win and might have lost their heart. Watching Steph shoot the lights out and everybody play well but you still loose just put the fear into throughout the rest of the series.

    San Antonio in 5.

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    1. Nice coverage Seda!

      Deng and Rose returning should put some signals to pick the other Bulls early before the PRAs are distributed and diluted. But the win puts the stops in that.

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  8. Pick for Monday. I am still not messing with the OKC/Grizzlies game, I want to see if OKC wins this and I have a feeling it will go to 6 or 7 games. Therefore I am left with two Bulls to pick from, Bellini and Robinson. Both averaging good PRAs. Thompson killed me today and I'm pissed because I was this close to picking Barnes! Heat are def gonna win. Just who is better at home, Bellini or Robinson, that is the question. I'm leaning Bellini, what do you think. I'm still in the 97% in 1- N- Done with all big players left to pick. Who are you thinking of picking for Monday's game Taong?

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