Greatness May Have To Wait

Kevin Durant.

Okay, for a while there I wanted to post the shortest blog entry I have yet... Kevin Durant, Period! But I digress, he deserves more than that.

The Thunder are now down 1-3 and for most of us who adore KD, this is the pick we are dreading to take. But there are no escaping nor denying now. We have to pick KD for Wednesday. I will not even touch on the other match that day. You have to pick KD now!

Here are KD's PRAs on elimination games (recent first):

  • 46 (Miami 2012)
  • 34 (Dallas 2011)
  • 50 (Memphis 2011), win
  • 35 (Lakers 2010)
(I apologize to Thunder fans; I am sure these games stated bring back sour memories.)

The Thunder just cannot win three games in a row. Not without Russell Westbrook. Not with the Grizzlies seemingly knowing all the answers now. With what I have seen with the Grizzlies, especially Game 4 (the rally and the OT performance), I am all hands up -- the Grizzlies deserve to advance.

For those who already used KD before, pick Reggie Jackson over Kevin Martin.

22 comments:

  1. Now this is where strategy comes in. Let´s pretend the Thunder win an ugly game at home. Everybody has picked KD. Me? I will pick Kevin Martin, whose 25 pts will help in the win. Then, in game 6, the Grizzlies advance despite an absolute monster by KD, and I will be the only one who still could pick him. Harharhar, I am a genius.

    With that out of the way, I will pick KD on wednesday. How could I not. I am not even sure the Thunder will make it to game 6 and missing out on KD would be stupid beyond description. I am still fearing a blowout either way with a lot of benchtime for Durant, but you´ve got to take that chance. Let´s hope for a good game, or not, doesn´t really matter, as just about everyone is picking KD now.

    Belinelli last night was not that hot, but neither was anybody on the Bulls. Butler would have gotten me 5 PRA more, but, okay, so what?

    What we should have picked in this round: KD in game 1, Kevin Martin in game 2, Derek Fisher in game 3, Serge Ibaka in game 4.

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    1. 40 pts
      10 rebs
      10 assists
      let's go KD :)

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    2. No, really, what if he had a bad game? Wouldn´t matter at all as EVERYBODY worth his salt is picking him now. I don´t care about people who pick urant, James, Anthony et al in the first week just to drop out after two weeks and playing with a new account in the conference Finals to win weekly prices. They don´t matter.

      I would save up KD, but to what extent? What would I gain? Probably nothing. The Thunder won´t pull this series out. Had they won game 4, that could have happened, but now?

      Everybody will get whatever KD rings up, then maybe you can pick between Martin, Ibaka, Perkins (haha) or whoever for a possible game 6. It does not really matter if KD has a good game or not, does it?

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  2. Taong is right. But this predicament really afirms my belief you have to pick your winner going in and gamble by picking the best player when you expect they'll have their best game. I did that with Melo for NYK and got his best game of the post season. It looks like Indy is going to win tonight making Melo a must play for game 5. But as Alex pointed out, this really doesn't help anyone, it just evens the playing field as EVERYBODY playing hold the best for an elimination game strategy is cancelling themselves out.

    I'll be picking KD tomorrow, but it's not going to impact anything. Just keep me even with pack.

    Damn, you Beverly. One stupid play changed the entire complexion of the playoffs.

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    1. Yep it doesnt have impact. Just emphasizing to anybody stubborn enough eho are still hoping Thunder will win and thus saving KD. That is why my original post was just..

      Kevin Durant.

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    2. It's great advice.

      It's a complete leap of faith to save him an risk losing 80 or more points.

      Sadly, (as in I can't believe OKC is going home) I'm picking Durant as well.

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  3. I have to agree with Alex here. As of right now KD is at 59% ownership. I didn't save him all this time to get the same points as everyone else. Sure, it is the safe play but still not a guarentee by any means. I don't mind taking a little risk. OKC should win at home in game 5 and I still expect KD to go off in the 'next' elimination game. I think he will get more help from the others at home, and hence they will have better stats (ie: more value). But on the road in game 6 he is going to have to do it all on his own and he will put up big numbers, even if they lose.

    So following that logic I'll get more for the secondary player in game 5 than in game 6. and then I'll also get a bigger # from KD In game 6. I really feel like OKC is going to be inspired as a team at home in game 5. I expect KD to be inspired on the road in game 6. In addition, I don't expect the Grizz to put out their best effort in game 5. Being up two games and playing away tends to have that kinda effect on players.

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    1. That is a risky move VitalViper! Although, you'll look smart if Thunder wins G5 :) Good luck though.

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  4. VitalViper I did that for CP3. Huge mistake. I thought clips would win game 6 and CP3 would have monster game 7. Big mistake. Instead I took KG who got 28. I mean the risk outweighs the reward. If they do lose tomorrow. That means you will have not picked Kd35. See how ridiculous that sounds? But it's up to you.

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    1. Ditto.
      And even for my reasons then, compared to now, I do not see any reason not to pick KD now.. coz there are no close substitutes.

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    2. Have to agree. His worst game of the series was 82 pts (twice), while his best game is 112 (twice), so you're looking at maybe a 20 point reward. The only reason I can see not to pick KD is if you think OKC can pull off the upset and advance. Being the only one with KD in the next round would be a HUGE reward.

      I've been banking on my hunches this round by using the best players in early crucial games in the series when I was convinced their team wouldn't advance (Melo, Thompson, Boozer, Curry) and save for Boozer and Curry (had them both in the first round) it's payed off.

      I'm not a big believer of the idea that stars play best in elimination games when down 3-1. Typically they force the action and play out of character and few teams go in those final games with the belief they can win the series so the energy isn't there. Nearly every star plays great the first two games before they get worn down (see Melo, see Thompson and likely Durant tomorrow night).

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  5. For fun (not bragging) I'm back in the hunt and up to 96.8% with 977 points

    How is everybody else doing?

    Good luck!!

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    1. Hot darn, Seda! Good job!
      1-N-Done game's been good to you.

      Catch you on the finish line

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    2. MY LAST TWO PICKS: 24 PAR.... COMBINED!
      Nate Robinson 7 including 0 regular points
      Stephen Curry 17 (9 points, 8 assists, 0 rebounds) from the same player that I could have gotten 59 from (44, 11, 4) in game 1. That is a loss of 42, in addition I lost 32 of the 39 from Robinson but those games 1s were on the same day. Best case in Nate's 2nd best game of the series in game he got 30 (17, 7, 6) so I lost 23 from him and 65 between these 2! Game 4 is the worst to pick someone who is decent or better!

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    3. aceee06, don't despair. Some of us got bad streaks too. I got 16 and 12 early in the week.

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  6. Bad news is KD is playing terrible. 60% of the players are in for a hugely disapointing night. Can't say it surprises me, he's tired and any smart defensive gameplan is make anybody but Durant score.

    Good news is so many people had him tonight it isn't really making a dent in the standings.

    And aceee06 I agree with Taong - you can definitely overcome a bad streak. I had one of 6 straight games in round 1. And survived taking Raymond Felton in the 2nd when he put up a whopping 22.

    Keep picking.

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    1. KD 26 PRA 10:43 left
      There's still time for 40

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    2. Sad to see KG go out like that. I know how hard he pushes himself to improve and be great. The shots just weren't dropping.

      And then there were 6.

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    3. Good news is that with Westbrook next year, they'll repeat as favourites in the West. Opportunity wasted by bad luck. Oh well, there'll be better times ahead.

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  7. Second year in a row with me picking KD at the worst time. But this year I had no chance. As RW got hurt, KD put up 41 (three times) 50+ (the other 5 games) and now had his 3rd worst shooting performance in the postseason ever.
    Ah well, nothing to cry about, everybody had him.

    I expect very much the same tonight with Melo :)

    Tomorrow I will pick... oh, no more games? Stupid schedule.

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    1. That reminds me....

      Everyone who made an advance pick on Friday (about 9% picked a Heat in DTTF?), clear it!

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