Welcome To The NBA Finals 2012!

It is the NBA Finals 2012! After using all the Heat and Thunder stars, let me lay out my pick plan.

Game 1: Kendrick Perkins
Game 2: Thabo Sefolosha
Game 3: Shane Battier
Game 4: Mike Miller
Game 5: Joel Anthony
Game 6: Derek Fisher
Game 7: Nick Collison

Well, that sucks, right? As some of you have done, the extension and unsureness of the previous series have forced us to either miss on key picks or intentionally pick Finals stars early to lock-in their PRAs in the face of uncertainty. Those moves have elevated me to 94 percentile as of this writing. As I pick fillers, I expect a drop each time from the ranks. To minimize the drop to just minus 1 percentile per game, I will be carefully picking the players on games when I think they will surpass their usual PRAs. Yes, that will be hard as hell, but that was the predefined understanding when we took those moves early in DTTF. It's damage control time!

And here's hoping for a 4-game sweep either way and blowout games, for me to be able to stay above 90 percentile. Highly unlikely though. Prediction: Thunder in 7.

5 comments:

  1. Ah, who wants to have full rosters now anyway? Last season I went into the finals with James, Wade, Bosh, Nowitzki, Terry, Chandler, Barea, Chalmers. I got it wrong almost every game, except for Chalmers for game 6 over Barea (and over James. Ah, fond memories). Now I have to worry when to pick my one great option (KD, no idea), one good option (Bosh, probably soon) and when to throw the dice (all of the others).

    I have one of two OKC "scrubs" for game 1, either Sefolosha or Perkins. But, just for the final round, I can try and think a little. My best four players that I should use in the first four games: Durant, Bosh, Haslem, Perkins. Two players by each team when both teams have two games at home in the first four. I doubt that it will be a sweep, but you never know. So it should be Durant and Perkins for the first two games, followed by Bosh and Haslem. Maybe Battier for game 5 in Miami and Sefolosha in game 6, old man Fisher for game 7. Might as well pick ´em that way or wait to see how the series unfolds.

    In any case I will start with one of the guys who already has a ring (there are two in each team if I´m not mistaken) and pick Perkins for game 1.

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    1. The safe pick is Durant in Game 1. I think Game 2 will see Heat adjust to Durant -- maybe double team him with a big, thus freeing Perkins. Just maybe.

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    2. Pick ALWAYS the best option... And it is DURANT!!!

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  2. I'm at percentile 92 and still got Wade, Westbrook and Bosh to pick. Let's see if I can pick the right guy in the right game. :) Good Luck.

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    1. @guimas83, at 92 and 3 stars left, that's a good job. Even if they produce average PRA for you, I predict a 95 / 96 percentile for you at end of Game 4. Let me know how you do. Good luck too!

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