Learn From Our Mistakes

One of the mistakes I made last year in this tournament was the heavy reliance on the home/road strategy; that is, taking into consideration a player's stats based on his performance at home and on the road. I found out that is not always the case; in fact, more than half of my picks last year mostly using this strategy did not turn out as they should. I am not saying drivers should not look at those statistics -- I think you should still. I am only saying, don't let it have a great effect on your decisions. Last year, even if there was a 2-point advantage on one court, it greatly swayed my picks. This year.. only if it obviously affects a player. Btw, the loser-playing-at-home strategy is a better bet, but may also be misleading. From looking at these stats the past 2 years, there are players who love playing in a hostile environment, and some even are pressured by the home crowd. And most stars only have 1- or 2-pt differential between home and away; that's something highly variable in the playoffs.

My next pick? Amar'e Stoudemire.



Wait! Didn't I just choose Melo in Game 1??? I did! I did taw a putty tat!
And is that going against the spread-the-wealth strategy? Yes it does, yes it does.
But why???

Well, let's look at the other matches..

The Thunder-Mavs series is tight and unpredictable. Thunder was playing catchup most of Game 1, and that's a bad omen for them. And they won the game on a KD off-balanced jumper, and that's a good omen for them. Do you see the usage of the word "omen"? That word has no meaning in the playoffs. I am waiting for 1 or 2 more games from that series.

The Pacers-Magic series is now, umm how can I call it? Weird. The Magic are supposed to lose without Howard, but what the heck just happened? I still pick the Pacers to win, but just because of the Game 1 loss, this has gotten a little more unpredictable.

And the Heat-Knicks series. Heat are still winning (to the tune of Charlie Sheen). I still have no reason to believe Knicks will win the series, even if they bounce back in a game. Amar'e said they got to learn from their mistakes and get ready for Monday. Like Melo, he stunk too with 2 of 7 FG. I am hoping he backs it up. If not, at least he gets back to his 20 PRA against the Heat.

Note: If you have not picked Melo yet, maybe now is the time. Also watch out for Jeremy Lin news. If he ever comes back in, Melo's numbers will dip, Stouda's numbers will rise.

9 comments:

  1. I'll save Carmelo for Thursday game so I am gonna use JR Smith today! His numbers will take a hit if Lin comes back.

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    1. JR loves to play at the Garden though, +5. But yeah you are right, his numbers were better after Lin got injured. G'luck with him!

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  2. game 4 pa ang balik ni Lin based sa news so going for a Knick this early might be good pero Melo sa game 3, amare sa game 4. I will choose a maverick player bro..

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    1. Thanks for the tip on Lin. If that's true, JR Smith in Game 3 for me, and Game 4 Lin if elim game. Of course, I haven't looked at other teams yet. We'll see.

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. There are lot of teams in the first round and it's impossible to pick all the best players of the losing teams... So, i think the main thing is picking the best player. My favourites are Granger (IND), Nelson (ORL), Melo (NY) and Nowitzki (DAL). I think OKL and MIA will pass to second round, so i don´t considere them. I've already picked Granger and the NY series could go to 5 games... So, i picked Nowitzki.

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    2. Melo seems to be the right pick today. 20+ PRA at halftime, and taking a little under half of NY's FGA. Stouda is at half of expected at halftime. Crossfingers!

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  4. At last, Melo 40; Stou 25; Nowitzki 38...

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