Welcome to the second round! This post is going to be very different than the one I originally planned. My expectation going into the round was that it was going to be uneventful, and thus easier than usual for Drive to the finals. Cleveland and Boston felt like sure bets, and Oklahoma City looked like the clear favourite to join them. This left Minnesota vs Golden State as the only series with question marks. After one game, all three of the favourite teams are down 1-0. How should you navigate this? Let's discuss!
Cleveland vs Indiana: Indiana leads 1-0
I think you can still confidently pick Cleveland to win. Game 1 was very unusual, with Cleveland going cold from the three point line, shooting only 23.7%. This is due for a course correction, and when it does Cleveland will get rolling and should dispatch of Indiana. I would advise continuing to pick from the Pacers if you agree with this assessment. They are loaded with options, with all five starters and even a few bench players putting up solid numbers. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are must pick. Everyone else can easily be used in a pinch, including Myles Turner, Aaron Nesmith, and Andrew Newbhard. A deep roster means that, even if an upset happens, you can pick a few and still be alright for the next round if the series goes south.
Boston vs NY Knicks: NY Knicks lead 1-0
This is such a similar story to the other east series. Boston shot 25% from the three point line. The series will regress to the mean as it progresses, and Boston should prevail. Continue to pick Knicks, especially on Wednesday in order to avoid needing to pick from OKC vs Denver. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns are must picks. There are a variety of other solid picks, such as Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges. Similar to Indiana, a few mistakes won't hurt that much long term due to the reliable depth.
Oklahoma City vs Denver: Denver leads 1-0
This is a series to avoid in the short term. Denver has the championship pedigree to pull off the upset. OKC has the season-long success record to be given the benefit of the doubt. Wait for additional information and save those picks for later.
Minnesota vs Golden State: Series tied 0-0
No reason to pick from here, even with Indiana up 1-0. We need to pick this series on Thursday irregardless, and might as well give it a game (unless you truly aren't confident in Cleveland anymore). I give Minnesota the edge, but you can never count both Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler out.
What's your second round strategy?
I agree with the logic on the first three games.
ReplyDeleteAs for GSW-MIN, my next pick in G1 is Jimmy Butler. Coz I think Wolves has this series.
Randle is a different player in this Wolves team -- at least he is not foul-prone like KAT. He and Donte do make this team better.
Size is still GSW's problem. And while they won vs the big Rockets, the Wolves are bigger.
Agree with all the points in the post and I also think Minnesota should win, but I'm going to wait a game for sure.
DeleteI haven't decided yet, but there is a chance I pick Ty Jerome if Garland is still out tonight. If Garland (and/or perhaps Mobley) is out tonight, the possibility of an upset is not that low imo. Picking Jerome would buy some time, and he should be a solid ~25 points player sans Garland.
ReplyDeleteIf Garland is in, I'm definitely going with Haliburton.
I think the Jerome logic makes sense. He won't be the same when Garland is back. It's a good "buy a day" pick.
DeleteThis got me thinking...
DeleteWow all Garland, Mobley and Hunter are out. Now I'm picking Jerome surely.
DeleteActually picking Jarrett Allen without Mobley is intriguin as well, but he's a pickable player even with a full strength Cavs too, so still going Jerome makes more sense imo.
Deletewhen betting the underdog isnt rewarded I will always pick the favorite and if not sure i take whoever is the betting favorite This applies a lot for NCAA March Madness especially the first round.I will almost always take the betting favorite for every first round game I sometimes deviate 1 or 2 games but i almost always seem to lose those games.Its a lot trickier in this game. But after the Cavs and Celts lost game 1 i thought they may not be favored but they are but not by as much That said Mitchel may explode But I dont like to change my pick which is Haliburtin If Pacers win ill take Mitchel next game If Cavs win Siakum.
Deletenow the game starts..when in doubt i look at vegas odds on the series all favored teams still the favorite dispite being down That said its tough pickings.I got Haliburtan today and OG tomorrow
ReplyDeleteI'm similar to you
DeleteFor some reason I never understood (or never wanted to) how to read odds 😂 Am I alone in this universe?
DeleteArticle idea... how to read odds. Please!
DeleteI teach data, so.... I can probably work in a lesson on how odds work for ya!
DeleteTY!
DeleteHappy with the Knicks win, but I agree. Boston isn't going to shoot 15 for 60 from the 3 point line everyday. I'll still save Towns and Brunson for the home games, as I feared a blowout could happen in Boston (as it looked like yesterday until mid third quarter). So I'll probably pick Bridges, hoping for a better game from him.
ReplyDeleteToday is a tougher decision, I still believe the Cavs will advance, but depending on their injury report it could be a good chance to buy some time with a decent pick. I am not touching the Nuggets series, same as in the first round, until we are closer to an elimination game. I do think the Wolves are favorite, and my original thought was picking Green before he kicks Gobert in the nuts or something like that. Depending on the Cavs injury report I might change it
yeah it seems like Cavs injuries should leave the door open for at least a competitive game today, so no blow-out I'd think.
DeleteUnless it's a Pacers blow-out LOL
DeleteI guess Ty Jerome will be a popular pick today. I was tempted by going Jarret Allen or even Donovan Mitchell, but it's too risky. I still think the Cavs could comeback even if they lose today again. I like the Pacers though
Jerome has been a horrible pick lol. I didn't expect he would have his worts shooting night of the season obviously (1/14 from the field). Usage was there, so it has been a "good decision, bad outcome" type of a pick.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna pick one of the Knicks players today, but hasn't decided which one. I've already picked Brunson, so it'll be either KAT or Hart for me, as they are a little bit more consistent than OG and Mikal.
Man, the playoffs are fun. All the road teams winning game 1 is awesome, although it makes picking even trickier... Happy with my Jarrett Allen pick from last night, will probably go with Josh Hart today even though I am a bit scared this might turn into a blowout W for the Cs.
ReplyDeleteG2... changed my pick from Brunson to Murray. With Celtics players not 100% (KP, Jrue, Brown, Hauser), and the Thunder relatively in full health, I just think between the Knicks and Nuggets, it is the latter most likely to lose G2.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. I'm more confident in the Celtics than the Nuggest.
DeleteToday, I got Dray in the fray
ReplyDeleteTomorrow, with only one series to pick from (GS vs MIN) and Golden State up 1-0, I'm going to buy a day. Steph Curry will be out. Gary Payton, welcome to the party. He gets my pick.
ReplyDeleteI am going to say it again. The Celtics can't shoot that bad in the next game xD
ReplyDeleteConsidering two games came to the last play, I think kaya pa.
DeleteIf KP can't perform dahil sa illness, they need to shut him down at least this series. Kasi at least yung first half na napanood ko na pinasok sya, ala anyare.
Brown looks fine now, better than G1.
I'll start picking a Celtic in G3. But a 2-2 is not far out to imagine.
Oops sorry copy-pasted from a friends GC. That's for all our Filipino followers ;)
DeleteOG laid an egg for me Whoever i pick if i watch game they do terrible..No more messing around being cute.Edwards tonight.These teams that are up arent lucky this is playoffs not regular season.I do think Wolves will win series but they have 3 or 4 decent options and i can not risk not picking Edwards when theres lot of other games that will make me forced to not pick a good player.,Pacers arent lucky they are good.Same with Knicks.If they are up 2 -0 away IMO they are the favorites now to win the series Same with if Warriors win tonight
ReplyDeleteI cannot imagine how GSW win the series without Curry, and for this reason I'll pick a Warrior tonight. I can't believe I'm saying this but there's a possibility I pick Buddy Hield lol. He's the definition of "hit or miss", so I'm probably gonna pick Butler instead, but sooner or later I'll pick Hield before Curry returns.
ReplyDeleteu may have convinced me to take Butler.Hield been hot and loves to shoot but ill take playoff Jimmy
DeleteToday I am going to pick Draymond Green, as he should be one of the players who gains more usage without Curry. I already wanted to pick him for G1, but switched to Jerome and his "great" performance. I have Butler lined up for Saturday unless they win again tonight. Tomorrow I am thinking about Jarrett Allen, especially if Mobley is still out
ReplyDeleteI'm avoiding Celtics and Cavs. Those series are whack right now. Those teams are good enough to pull it out and make one of em to make it all the way to the Finals.
DeleteI think so too, but the Cavs have enough decent options if the injured players come back. And the other series in the same day I don't want to touch it at all by now. Especially if the Warriors advance, I'd want as many good players as possible from the Thunder or Nuggets available
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