The Clippers clearly outplayed the Spurs in Game 1, but the one thing that makes me admire the Spurs is that they don't get fazed. They got ran over early and any other team would have succumbed, but they stayed the course. I bet one loss means nothing to them. As with other series in the same 1-0 status, it's too early for a pick. Besides, there are no consistent 30-PRA'ers there. There's Kawhi Leonard if you insist.
The Nets players were not in serious contention to be picked because of their low PRA season averages, but Game 1 showed that Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson can still potentially get 30. If you have already picked a Blazer, these two are good pickups for Game 2. Johnson can still be the go-to-guy especially in the 4th quarter, but Lopez seems to be a better pick due to Al Horford's dislocated finger.
I pick... Lopez.
Horford?? makes no sense, why?
ReplyDeleteHaha sorry that should read Lopez, also by context.
DeleteI pick Lopez coz rival Horford will play injured.
Still so gutted with the Lowry fiasco... Lopez tonight better top 30!
ReplyDeleteI picked Brook and I need +30
ReplyDeleteJJ or LMA ?
If you need 30+ then ofc lma
DeleteLma 100% if u still have it mate..JJ better at home
DeleteLMA
DeleteAgree with most of your thoughts Taong.
ReplyDeleteHopefully one of Portland/San Antonio can win tonight to make it interesting. All the series are at 2-0 right now. Makes it easier to plan for picks though, I suppose.
Last night:
Celts/Cavs: 24 from Turner, 30 from Thomas. That's good enough for anyone who picked those and stayed away from Lowry. If you haven't picked Isaiah, what are you waiting for? If you have, just play it safe and stay away from this series.
Raps/Wiz: Ouch. DeRozan with an average game (31) after a very hot start. Lowry foul/injury trouble. If you haven't picked a Rap yet, now is the time. One of DeRozan or Lowry/Williams needs to be picked. If Lowry is injured, I think Lou Williams becomes a must pick, a lot of the scoring will come from there.
Mavs/Rockets: Josh SMITH! Dwight HOWARD! I considered them both for my pick of the night because of just how good those numbers are, but in the end I want to keep them in my pocket for round 2. Ellis played a fine game with 32; Rondo was just terrible. JJ had a nice game. If you haven't picked from this series yet, Dirk/Ellis game 3. Pick Ellis if Parsons is back; he struggled last night with Jones/Ariza guarding him (Houston put Harden on R. Jefferson). There's a lot more space for Ellis if Parsons plays.
My pick: Monta Ellis (32). Happy, I still have my streak of 30s intact.
Best pick: Monta Ellis (32). Interchangeable with DeRozan. No one else really stood out for losing teams.
TONIGHT:
Players to consider:
Brook Lopez (25%) / Joe Johnson (9%): I'm always nervous with Brook, but with Horford's finger issue, that might just tip the scale in Brook's favor for a few extra rebounds. Brook was also hot in game one despite only attempting 8 FGs. You have to think that Brooklyn will attempt to give him more shots. He's my pick as well. Always like Iso Joe in his former home.
Aldridge (26%) / Lillard (10%): Frankly I'm not picking a Blazer. Not now. Games 3 and 4 are reserved for Blazers. April 25th: GS-NO (no), ATL-BKN (no), CHI-MIL (no), POR-MEM (yes!). April 27th: CHI-MIL if necessary (no), ATL-BKN (no), MEM-POR (yes!). I don't see any Buck or Net as a must pick, so therefore I'm keeping my Blazers for these two games.
Danny Green (0%): Was just horrendous in game 1, so most people will count him out. Do. Not. Count. Him Out.
Kahwi Leonard (3%) / Tim Duncan (2%): If you really think San Antonio lose the series (I do). Still, I don't mind losing Spurs. They are bad for DTTF.
Final Verdict: I have Lopez.
My progress/Best Picks
1. Anthony Davis (43) / Quincy Pondexter (35)
2. Isaiah Thomas (37) / Beno Udrih (34)
3. Monta Ellis (32) / Monta Ellis (32)
Total Points: 143. 92nd percentile. 1,825th overall.
Hope it's SA since I'm taking LA, must come back from a HUMILIATING 39 Percentile and pass my last 2 picks combined total of 33!
DeleteHow often does someone get 39 and still be disappointing?! I can't believe it Lillard out PARs Aldridge 7-1 in the last 10 minutes to reduce Aldridge's margin over Lillard from 24 to 18, knocking it below the 22 margin in game 1 which means I get the screwed end of the deal; 4 of those 7 came from Lillard Free throws in the final minute.... only freakin Trailblazer to score points in the last 5 minutes, I didn't care about beating 47 but I'm pissed off that 22 PAR margin needed to be beaten, 0 FGs made by Aldridge in the 4th quarter, won't happen again but of course that and only Lillard scoring late happen when I take Aldridge and try to overcome that 22 difference.
DeleteThat being said gaining 18/22 back is still good but it looks bad when it was 24 with less than 5 minutes to go.
DeleteVery disappointed by Lowry perfomance yesterday, BUT i was 100% sure about my pick, that's why i have no regrets on it. It can happen, as it happened 2 days ago with MCW.
ReplyDeleteThe good news is that the Raptors lost another time at home, and it strengthen my thesis of them losing the series. Derozan will be my next pick in game 3 at Washington. If they want to change this situation they HAVE TO win game 3, no way.
I'm already focused on tonight's games and on my pick: it's Brook Lopez, another planned pick. I'm sure he'll have a big match and I would not pick anyone else of the other matches. Too early for Clippers-Spurs and just Lillard left for the Blazers, keeping him in elimination game. So, it's your time Brook!
I already planned my pick for tomorrow too and it's Isaiah Thomas. Only a little doubt on Giannis but Isaiah has a better points potential and 99% will get my pick, I don't care if I won't have the chance to play Giannis in these playoffs.
My situation right now is:
121 points
7,708th overall
65 percentile
MCW with 19 and Lowry with 12 ruined a bit my good start but i'm still very optimistic, a lot of games ahead. Good luck guys!
Fantastic attitude to have in my opinion. Nobody likes to look at a stinker, but you have to know at some point it's likely to happen. The same logic that got a 47 from Aldridge, predicting that game would be where he'd show up big, was used for that Lowry pick, as all signs pointed towards that being his big moment. There is no crystal ball, all you can do is hope for the best and that your prediction holds true. I've also got Lopez, like seemingly everybody else does. At least if Lopez is terrible, we'll certainly have company.
DeleteGiven my ability to stay away from your and Matteo's stinkers so far, I'm nervous about my Lopez pick tonight...
DeleteDon't be. If he stinks, we all stink together! Also, my hope is that we all ride your 30 PRA streak to great success!
DeleteThat's true Tangent, there is no crystal ball here, just hope and predictions, based on our own feelings and knowledge, and a little part of player's stats to study sometimes. The main thing is that I have my ideas, and i keep on follow them, i don't pick because that player is the hottest pick or because nobody else has him, right now it's too early to do these strategies. I use my ideas, and i try to pick the best player possible based on them. This is the strategy that last year made me finish in the 100 percentile, and I trust on it! I always feel very optimistic (except when i see my knicks play lol) and 2 bad picks cannot change it.
DeleteBtw i really like mfari analysis on picks and matches, they are always interesting to read.
I repeat: LET'S GO BROOK!!!
Matteo, you and I are the same people man... We had all 4 picks the same heading into Day 5, and guess who I have for Day 5?
DeleteI also did that 19 & 12 stinker combo, but they were the RIGHT picks. We're not psychics and the logic behind them was very justified. Onward and upward!
DeleteWow, Lowry was really bad. 12? Sigh.
ReplyDeleteWell, as a lot of you already stated, sh*t happens. It was a sound pick, certainly better than my Noah pick the night before, and it didn't pan out. Tough luck. Fell down from 97percentile to 79percentile.
I was really tempted to change my pick tonight from JJ to Lopez after that Horford thing. But then again, never change your first instinct. And seeing as everybody has Lopez, JJ is the cold pick. Why not? Better in a home game? He is at home every game in this series.
Did I mention it's my birthday today? And what do I get? A stinker by Lowry, another loss by the Mavs, Chandler Parsons out for the playoffs, Rondo may be out of the playoffs and the Mavs. Hmm...
Well, at least the rest of the day was not that bad :)
Happy birthday!
DeleteSorry about your Mavs. It's tough out West. Then again, my Raptors aren't doing much better.
I think JJ is a solid pick. He loves playing in Atlanta, you're right. Best of luck to you, as long as JJ doesn't take too many touches away from Lopez.
Happy birthday Alex!!!
DeleteTalking about the Mavs, i initially thought it would have been a balanced series with the Rockets winning in 6/7 games but with these injuries I think it will be even easier for them. I cannot see a 4-0, but a 4-1 seems reasonable. That's why it's time to pick Monta Ellis in the next game, and Dirk in the elimination game if there won't be better players from the other matches of that day. I'm sorry for your Mavs but their chances are very limited right now.
BTW enjoy your birthday mate! Wish u the best!
Happy birthday!
DeleteI understand about the Mavs. That's my team too. That and the Raptors. Wow, this really hasn't gone well for my teams.... Apparently Rondo has played his last game as a Maverick. This from their coach. Ouch. That trade just never worked out the way we had hoped.
Happy Birthday man!
Delete31 from Ellis was very good even though he slowed in the 4th.
ReplyDeleteI'm struggling with who to pick today, the 3 options I have are JJ, Lopez and Lillard.
Think I may go with Lillard because I want to use Lopez @ home and JJ later in a ko game 4-5. Lillard also shot poorly so he should be better today.
9 pra and 3/10 shooting at the half. still have time to pick up
DeleteSorry man, nothing against you... I'm just pissed at Lillard, good luck the rest of the way!
DeleteStill steamed about putting Quincy Pondexter and Eric Gordon in the wrong order for Games #1 and #2 of the NO vs. GS series resulting in a net loss of 31 PRA over what should have or at least could have been. Pondexter was brutal in Game #2, while stellar (35 PRA) in Game #1. Curse my bad luck.
ReplyDeleteThe guy that wasn't supposed to play was the pick of the night (33 PRA) from the New Orleans losing squad.
Rotowire has been pure trash with their unreliable lineups so far this postseason. Not accurate at all. Yesterday they had Al-Farouq Aminu starting in place of Chandler Parsons, only later to be changed to worthless Richard Hamilton after it was too late.
They used to be far better, now they are not reliable or not. Taong you suggested that 10 Before Tip site last year for lineup changes. But I haven't been able to find that this year, at least the updated ones for this year's season. I can find last year's, but that isn't helpful.
Any thoughts on this Taong?
For tonight I picked Thaddeus Young of the Nets. He posted 28 PRA in Game #1 and seemed fairly even with the other two top picks (Brook Lopez/Joe Johnson) from the Nets in terms of what he brings to the table vs. Atlanta, and seemed the most consistent of the three players. Hoping for another 25+ effort out of Thaddeus Young for tonight's game.
was looking for TBT blog from nba site, but yeah it seems they stopped.
Deleteit's harder now to rely on the lineup factor, unless you go after individual teams' local news sites.
Never thought the Raptors would be the first team eliminated but they look hideous, losing two home games. The #8 teams vs. the #1 teams are putting up a better fight.
ReplyDeleteMonte Ellis was best from the losing teams last night 32 PRA or DeMar DeRozen 31 PRA, Isaiah Thomas was also good again with 30 PRA.
Dirk Nowitzki is a must use in Game #4. if Dallas loses Game #3. That would be Dirk Nowtzki's potential last game playing at home for possibly the last time. I am sure he will light it up (or any last game in front of the home crowd) whenever that happens this playoff season.
Just unlucky for Raptors with the Lowry situation. Looking at GM, karma.
DeleteDo you mean because of the f* Brooklyn comment? Because Masai is one of the most involved personalities in grassroots basketball and in charities throughout Africa... He's really hard to dislike.
Deletei'm sure he's had good karma happen to him coz of his goodwill.
DeleteNo Parson or Rondo anymore for the Mavs??? Holy Moly, this changes that entire series to Rocket 100% winning & Monta Ellis becoming a must pick ASAP I'd think.
ReplyDeleteAlso I have Lopez tonight like many of you.
ReplyDelete12 at the half. hope he pocks it up. meanwhile, Horford pick n roll still working
DeleteGuys, 2 days from now I have a dilemma, Ellis or Derozan in their respective Game 3 situation? Who would you pick?
ReplyDeleteEllis, so you may higher chance to pick Derozan and Dirk later.
DeleteIf you pick Derozan and Mavs lose G3, you can only pick Ellis in G4
Unfortunately I don't see the Mavs series going long enough to give me a chance to pick Dirk period. I'll need to pick Derozan & probably a Clipper on the next couple Mav days after my Ellis pick here. Quite the predicament.
DeleteEllis first, unless Lowry isn't good to go.
ReplyDeleteThis was supposed to be a reply to Jerry ^^
DeleteEven if healthy, Lowry is no longer viable. Two games of dud is too much for Round1
DeleteHe means if Lowry isn't good to go, pick DeRozan as he'll have increased looks.
DeleteRight
DeleteWho's watching this amazing Spurs vs. Clippers game? Overtime!!!!
ReplyDeleteSpurs. wow
ReplyDeleteLooks like Blake Griffin was the pick of the day, 52 PAR in a losing cause (in OT), series is now 1-1 but home court now belongs to the Spurs.
ReplyDeletestill early. this can go 7
Deletethis does have 7 written all over it, just puts us in a tight spot with our 3 very pickable Clippers, don't really want to pick more than 1 and see them advance...
DeleteI'm debating Lillard for Game 3 (been so bad, he's due to be great) and then Joe Johnson in Game 4, but I'm considering switching em and getting Lillard at Game 4 which may be an elimination name if they lose the next. I dunno, will Lillard be better first game at home or 2nd??
ReplyDeleteI'd switch em. I don't believe in "due" anymore. Too many disappointments in the pas t playoffs when picks are made guessing when a player with bad games going to break out.
DeleteJohnson, get the 30.
If Lillard does break out in G3, he'll near-match that in G4 anyway.