Nothing exciting to see here. I avoided picking fillers in the last round by using the stars in advance. So instead of gradually rising and peaking maybe at 95 percentile in the end, I chose to peak early at 100 percentile at the start of Finals and gradually come down to 95 percentile later. In general, same outcome, just different pathways. Of course, the sooner the Finals end, the better it is for me.
Just laying out my cards...
I think Spurs will exploit the Heat's lack of size early like they did to the Ibaka-less version of the Thunder last round. That means more PRA for Tim Duncan and Splitter.
I see no adjustments in Game 2 for the Heat in terms of starters, but more on double-teaming Duncan. This should open up the perimeter. If the injured Tony Parker plays big minutes in Game 1, Danny Green may be better here. Otherwise, Ginobili.
The Heat will be criticized for relying too much on LeBron and Wade, and thus call for spreading the floor and breaking down the Spurs defense. Allen moves well without the ball, and still has his sweet jumper. A third ring before he goes to the sunset -- he'd like that.
The Heat PG takes a while to heat up, and still is given 4th quarter minutes due to his ability to make big shots. If Tony Parker gets limited minutes early in this series, feel free to slide Chalmers into Game 3.
Last year, the Heat refused to focus on the hot-hand Green until they eventually did in Games 6 and 7. He is more Game 2 material, and I can switch him with Ginobili if I think the series can have a Game 5 (almost assured).
The Birdman will probably play better early in the series, but I have to play my best four first. I probably won't have to pick him.
My favorite Aussie burned a US Olympic team for gazillion points. If Parker misses a game, Mills' stock will rise quickly.
I had my best DTTF Conference Finals since 2009. And this will be my worst DTTF Finals. I need to survive the coming deluge.
Wow rank 80 now that's impressive. I was thinking of using LeBron on either an elimination game or close out game. Bosh I was thinking game 2. What do you think about Duncan game 1
ReplyDeleteDuncan plays best in Game 1 at least against teams that have small frontcourt. With Birdman DNP or limited in minutes with his injury, TD will rock the stat sheets.
DeleteTaong, what do you think about Lebron in Game 1 for me? Obviously I was thinking hold for elimination game all along, but a lot of people are doing that and with Lebron at only 5% in Game 1, I'm starting to think why not go for it and hold Bosh for elimination game where I figure he could easily step up as well
ReplyDeleteYour question got me thinking.
DeleteEveryone in DTTF will pick their best players until Finals are over, it just differs in how we mix and match. In the end, what will really matter is the PRA.
It doesn't matter what game we get overtaken or overtake someone. It will eventually settle down to our final PRA.
Picking hot or cold doesn't matter, too. You can pick LBJ when he's at 1% owned and then get 40 where everybody else gets 25 and below. And you pick LBJ when he's at 20% owned then get 55 with everbody else. Surely you'd want that 55 regardless of %owned.
Pick LBJ when you think he'll play better, not just when he may be a steal.
Thanks for this question, it really got me thinking what the true objective is.
That's just the thing, it's impossible to know when he'll do "the best" He could easily have an amazing Game 1 and set the tone, with the Spurs making adjustments and writing the ship in Game 2. Everyone could pick him for an elimination game and he may have a rough game for whatever reason with other guys stepping up. I'm ranked around 500 and feel my best shot to finish the highest is to take the risk of maybe getting more out of Lebron than others. If I don't, then oh well it was a risk and maybe I come out 15 PRA less, but it could balance out based on how well Bosh does in that game for me
DeleteThere is no way to really no when a player will post his best effort. That's where luck comes into this. You can try to put yourself in a favorable situation by picking a superstar when their team's back is against the wall, in an elimination game, when the best player(s) for each team usually step up (especially at home) to help their team try to move on to the next game.
DeleteAlso road vs. home splits and past performance vs. team stats can help you. However nothing works perfectly by any stretch.
***There is no way to really *know when a player will post his best effort.
DeleteBecause we don't know.....
Delete....THAT is why I believe it is in a person's best interest to give yourself that ONE chance to outdo others by going COLD and not going with the crowd in the elimination game.....
............Especially in CRUNCH time... why TIE when you might possibly do better...
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IF that is the ONLY chance you have to move ahead of the majority, WHY not give yourself that chance?
I personally go with an "outlast" philosophy. I don't really care if I pick the same guy as "the majority" because I know that there is no player who will always pick with the majority. We all branch off in our own direction. I just follow my own path based on what I think is best. I take some risks (a Rocket after a Game 1 loss) and go with the pack at other times (Paul George facing elimination). Picking a cold pick does happen for me - but I don't do it just to do it - I do it because I believe I'm on to something with one of the cold picks. I think a legitimate winning strategy in cold picking is not the cold player, but the cold team. For example, i you truly believed the Thunder beat the Spurs, then that is a great cold strategy. It didn't work out this year, but it would have in 2012 (and I know somebody that did that successfully that year). In the second or third round, a cold team strategy is great if you think your on to something. You just have to be willing to have it blow up in your face.
DeleteI have been saving tim Duncan for game 1 of teh finals.. He usually asserts himself in game 1's.. but the fact that 27% of ppl are pickign him as well is turning me off.. now what
ReplyDeleteAh, I like it when the comments line up together. Read the above comments.
DeleteIf you believe like i do that Duncan will do great in G1, pick him in G1.
Another to put it is... Do you want the other 27% of DTTF get Duncan's peak PRA? Instead of you too?
James Harden and Curry had their highest PRA on the day they were the hottest pick, LMA had his highest PRA on G1. I'm saving Duncan for elimination game, but just follow your instinct, don't be too concerned with usage rate.
DeleteLuckily I had talked about this last year's Spurs-Heat Part1.
ReplyDeletehttp://nbadrivetothefinals.blogspot.com/2013/06/finals-strategy-player-versus-self.html
Really having a tough time making a Game #1 pick, and eventually because of that beyond. I want to pick a Spur because they are at home. Unfortunately, the Spurs right now have a number of question marks about their lineup believe it or not.
ReplyDelete1. Will Tony Parker start (he supposedly will), and if so how long will he last or how effective will he be? Will he stay healthy, and if he does get hurt in this game, is it series ending or just game ending?
2. Will this game end up being another blowout? In last year's Finals with these same two teams, there were a number of blow outs by the home team. That would definitely limit PRA production from the starters.
3. Will Tiago Splitter even start? If he does not, he is not a good pick. He was barely a good pick vs. the Heat last year, and even then, only at home. Splitter has never gotten out of the single digits vs. Heat on the road, 6 to 8 PRA is a common score for him, even starting.
If I had Danny Green or Boris Diaw, I would definitely be picking one of those Spurs in Game #1. Wish I would have saw the Heat vs. Spurs matchups prior to the last series starting, I might have picked very much differently, had I seen the numbers I am seeing right now looking at past performance for players vs. these two teams.
After seeing the stats, Splitter should have been used early last round, before he got benched in favor or Matt Bonner. After that Splitter became a non-factor. Boris Diaw should have also been saved for this series, but he did end up last series with his best game of the playoffs (32 PRA), so if you had him there. Congrats!
Manu Ginobili only has 2 games out of the last 10 vs. Heat, 26 PRA or higher (4 of those games are single digit PRA scores).
Rashard Lewis should have been used last round when he was starting, saving players like Ray Allen or Mario Chalmers (can't do much worse here), who will most likely have better PRA scores in this series, than Rashard Lewis, may not even start. #strike while the iron is hot (or at least being used).
Good rundown on G1 options.
DeleteBest PRA scores by team (mostly in order of rank). The first two are obvious. (best game/location last 10 games vs. opponent in parenthesis)
ReplyDeleteSpurs: 1. Tim Duncan (47 PRA away, but great home + away), 2. Kawhi Leonard (35 PRA away), 3. Tony Parker (32 PRA home), 4. Manu Ginobili (36 PRA home), 5. Danny Green (31 PRA home), 6. Boris Diaw (29 PRA home), 7. Tiago Splitter (19 PRA home), 8. Marco Belinelli (only two games played with Spurs vs. Heat, 13 PRA home, 18 PRA away). etc.
Heat: 1. LeBron James (53 PRA home), 2. Dwyane Wade (42 PRA away), 3. Chris Bosh (35 PRA away, 32 PRA both home + away games), 4. Mario Chalmers (26 PRA home), 5. Ray Allen (26 PRA away), Norris Cole (18 PRA both home + away), 6. Chris Andersen (13 PRA home), 7. Shane Battier (23 PRA home once, but normally posts 10 PRA or less), 8. Rashard Lewis (no track record as a starter, averages 1 PRA in his past efforts vs. Spurs as bench player)
Excellent research!
DeleteGuys, take note of the road warriors, and double-check with their road averages vs Spurs past two years just to be sure, and in case player don't get the high PRA on your chosen pick date for that player
This brings back great memories. Last year, I was trailing a guy in my league all playoffs. I overtook him and won the league because of my picks in Game 5, 6 and 7:
Delete- G5: Danny Green with a 30 (1 short of best in past 10)
- G6: Mario Chalmers with a 26 (best in past 10)
- G7: Shane Battier, on a wing and a prayer, with a 23 (clearly best in past 10)
That Shane Battier pick was legendary. Good memories.
Nice! Pacing and then sprinting near the end for the win!
DeleteThat Shane Battier pick was incredible. 23 PRA from Shane Battier in a playoff game was probably a career high. It's great when you can strike gold like that, with an obscure pick.
DeleteAbsolutely. Making an obscure pick is only advisable when you have no other option. I had used up everybody else, but one thing I knew is that the guy I was chasing picked Battier in Game 6, so I was guaranteed to have a different player than them.
DeleteBoris diaw or Chris Bosh for gm 1 ?
ReplyDeleteBosh I reckon. Bench Diaw is far less effective than Starter Diaw.
Delete