Nothing exciting to see here. I avoided picking fillers in the last round by using the stars in advance. So instead of gradually rising and peaking maybe at 95 percentile in the end, I chose to peak early at 100 percentile at the start of Finals and gradually come down to 95 percentile later. In general, same outcome, just different pathways. Of course, the sooner the Finals end, the better it is for me.
Just laying out my cards...
I think Spurs will exploit the Heat's lack of size early like they did to the Ibaka-less version of the Thunder last round. That means more PRA for Tim Duncan and Splitter.
I see no adjustments in Game 2 for the Heat in terms of starters, but more on double-teaming Duncan. This should open up the perimeter. If the injured Tony Parker plays big minutes in Game 1, Danny Green may be better here. Otherwise, Ginobili.
The Heat will be criticized for relying too much on LeBron and Wade, and thus call for spreading the floor and breaking down the Spurs defense. Allen moves well without the ball, and still has his sweet jumper. A third ring before he goes to the sunset -- he'd like that.
The Heat PG takes a while to heat up, and still is given 4th quarter minutes due to his ability to make big shots. If Tony Parker gets limited minutes early in this series, feel free to slide Chalmers into Game 3.
Last year, the Heat refused to focus on the hot-hand Green until they eventually did in Games 6 and 7. He is more Game 2 material, and I can switch him with Ginobili if I think the series can have a Game 5 (almost assured).
The Birdman will probably play better early in the series, but I have to play my best four first. I probably won't have to pick him.
My favorite Aussie burned a US Olympic team for gazillion points. If Parker misses a game, Mills' stock will rise quickly.
I had my best DTTF Conference Finals since 2009. And this will be my worst DTTF Finals. I need to survive the coming deluge.