Getting Lucky

Game 4 is critical. Cavs win and they command the series and have three chances to close out. Dubs win and they reset the series from scratch and play two of the next three at home. Players will get at it. This may be the turning point of the series, folks! Don't miss it!

As for DTTF, I stand at PCT 95. That's a bad place for someone shooting for Top 100. I am left with a few role players and have used (or failed to use) the stars. I have resigned that I will not reach my goal, but I want to have fun with my last few picks.

The heck with averages... let's take a look at the players' best games this postseason:


The reason I listed that is now I am risking it and looking to be super lucky. The way to do that is not to be safe in any way, and that is why I am discarding the averages. I need my picked player to have the ability (and the playoff history) to explode for some yummy PRAs.

I think this will still go at least Game 6, and for that I would need to set aside my top three from the list for the picking. That would be J.R. Smith (oh my goodness!), Tristan Thompson (good!) and Matthew Dellavedova (Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi oi oi!).

I don't like J.R. Smith in this series. Klay Thompson is a good defender, and J.R. has been average this series. Not up to par with my usual preference. BUT, this is a gamble, so I will pick him.. but not yet in Game 4. I will set him up for Game 5 ;)

Tristan Thompson should be the safe pick for me. He is trending up and has silently carved up the lane on both ends. But he is a hot pick owned at 17%. Can't get lucky the way I want if a lot more others get lucky too. I am looking for a cold pick.

Despite cramping up after Game 3, I think Dellavedova has found his groove and will earn the minutes he had in that game again in Game 4. That is the Cavs' formula to stopping Curry -- put a body (literally) on Curry the whole game. Irving could not do that for reasons that he was also expected to reserve some effort into the side of offense, but Della can focus entirely on hounding Curry as James has taken over the point guard duties. Hopefully, Della has shown the Cavs Nation he is worthy of being resigned this summer. Now, he has to gift Cavs Nation who suddenly stormed to buy his jersey, by keeping it up.

My Game 4 pick: Matthew Dellavedova

If the series goes 7 games, I will add Mozgov into the mix. As I expected, Dubs adjusted to the James-Mozgov pick-and-roll game, and thus the big man was limited in Game 3. I am hoping to catch him in a good game later.

Sooner or later, one of these next four picks I will get a dud. Until then, here's to rolling the dice!

Good luck to me.

Stoppable

You know, when LeBron James said before the series that Steph Curry is unstoppable, I knew he was playing with the Warriors ego. Yes he recognizes and praises Curry, but at the same time he was making them too comfortable. I've heard the same thing many times, especially when Popovich always praise Dirk before games... I hate that!

It may be an off-night for Curry, but all those Cavs hands on his face contributed a lot. Curry can be stopped. All the Cavs needed was to study all those Curry off-nights throughout the season. Rare, but it happens.

And so is LeBron. He can be stopped. It has been done before. The Warriors just need to figure that out. They actually limited his shooting percentage. They just need to deny him the ability to see an open man. Hard.

The Warriors will adjust. One, to give Curry better looks by using picks and screens more. Two, devise an answer to the James-Mozgov pick-and-roll game that opened up the lane in Game 2.

Meanwhile, will Klay Thompson remain hot? If the Cavs gameplan of shutting down Curry and letting Thompson beat them off screen worked in Game 2, they will not divert from that a whole lot.

My tentative Game 2 pick: Klay Thompson. He will not top his Game 2 PRA, but if the Cavs don't adjust to him, off he goes again.

What should be Steve Kerr's next move?