Right Player, Right Time

Pick who when -- that's the problem. For many, here's the typical order of picks from Games 1 to 4 (with their respective ownership percentages):

Steph Curry 24%, 23%, 5%, 4%
Klay Thompson 7%, 20%, 6%, 7%
LeBron James 7%, 9%, 30%, 10%
Kyrie Irving 6%, 4%, 20%, 20%

Picking Curry in either Game 1 or 2 makes sense as he "may" be more effective at home. The Cavs will play their own game and may reserve matchup adjustments after Game 1, thus the "unstoppable" Curry may have his way in the first game. Also, people forget that Curry is still prone to injury -- something he has evaded this postseason... so far. He is the best example of pick-first-the-best-player-at-home-in-Finals strategy that most have been doing in DTTF for years.

Thompson, on one hand, said he is still dealing with nerves that comes with the Finals. Not sure about you, but that seems like Game 1 will just serve as a warm-up for a Game 2 when he'll be more comfortable. Also, he may feel it out first coming off concussion. Game 2 fits him well.

Many of us are depending on the production of LeBron in the Finals and which game he will perform his best. His Game 3 is his first home game in the Finals, and most believe that game is his rightful place in DTTF. I am not entirely convinced, except if the Cavs are going for a commanding 3-0 like what happened last round against the Hawks. That won't happen against the Warriors. My belief is that his best will come after LeBron's Cavs trail the series (0-1 so G2, or 1-2 so G4, or 2-3 so G6, whichever comes first), or if they are going for a 3-X lead.

Irving, on other hand, is unpredictable being injured. The quotes on recent articles tell me that the Cavs will be limiting his minutes and will try to manage him in favor of longevity. Truly if he can pace himself for 20 minutes per game, then he can help the Cavs. My bet is either Game 1 just in case he aggravates his injury and plays less in succeeding games, or in an elimination game when he can lay it all out on the line.

For those trailing in their leagues and have nothing left to lose, how about doing a series of cold picks? James then Irving then Thompson then Curry? Who is bold enough to pick James in Game 1?

You know what? I feel LeBron needs a Game 1 win to have a chance to win this series.

My Game 1 pick: Harrison Barnes. Picks for the rest of the games will be based on "feel".

gl!

13 comments:

  1. J.R. Smith for me. Take advantage while Klay Thompson is working himself back into things, as perhaps his defense will not be at his usual level. Hoping I get lucky and catch JR on the right night. Tough guy to predict.

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    1. I'm doing the same, initially I was going with Kyle Irving but he doesn't feel 100% so I'm taking Smith instead. Biggest key: Get LBJ and SC in their best respective games of the series [excluding a game 6 if the series isn't 2-2 after 4 games and a game 7 since it must be forced at all times](if their best games come on the same night, then the best/2nd best combo that is higher). 2nd Biggest key get DG on his best game that isn't a forced game, LBJ or SC's best unforced game (or a 2nd best if necessary). 3rd Biggest key good performances from all other picks.

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  2. I'm in a situation where I have too many players ti choose from. I've only used barnes and delly, the rest is still up fkr grabs. Do I use my big guns first like steph, green, thomspon, lbj and then finish the series with the likes of tristan jr shump irving. Or do I do the opposite. I was hoping to end the series with back ti back picks of lbj and curry. IDK who to choose today. Help!!!!!

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    1. Determine your best four (just in remote case of sweep), then pick from that four only. Not jr nor tristan, too early

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    2. My best four would be lebron curry greenand klay. A distinct fifth prob jr or tristsn since kyrie is hurt. However I don't want to go with green fir he is 20% owned today and only 12% game two. But he makes the mmost sense in terms of a pick. I wanna wait on klay. And I'm saving curry lbj for the end of the series. So its jr irving or green for me today? I mean this prob the mmost healthy he gonna be right.

      If all of u had all your picks available, who would u go with?

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    3. I like green in G1.
      But you ate right about Irving, G1 is where he'll be healthiest

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  3. Now we head to the Finals after a less than stellar 3rd Round of picks, and quite frankly, the 2nd Round wasn't much better. There were far too many 11-15 PRA picks and not enough 40+ PRA picks. And as always, too many picks where not putting players in the proper order and playing them on the right night, instead of the wrong one, cost many, many PRA points overall. This as always, leads to immense frustration and discouragement.

    Unlike last year's Playoffs, this year had far too many short and very uncompetitive series. In 2014 many series went long resulting in far more opportunities to pick more players, resulting in far more PRA points being scored, and a far more exciting DTTF experience, even if you didn't win anything. This year other than the rare Spurs vs. Clippers competitive series, mostly all of these series have been incredibly uncompetitive, ending in massive blowouts, and in the case of the Bulls and Atlanta Hawks vs. the Cavs, there were two teams that basically completely quit out there, which led to devastatingly horrendous PRA scores posted by Bulls and Hawks players who were lucky to play 3 quarters in many games, and even when they were on the court, for the most part, they were horrendous, putting in uninspired lack of efforts when they were.

    So now we have reached the Finals, with clearly the two best teams from each conference going at it, Golden State vs. Cleveland. Both teams played really well to get to this point, destroying the other teams they played to get here. During the regular season these teams split the two games they played, with each winning their home game. And that may very well be how this plays out again, with whoever does a better job of defending home court probably winning this series. Golden State has the ultimate advantage of having 4 home games to 3, if this series goes the full 7 games. So until they lose a home game, they have the advantage, as well as a phenomenal 46-3 home record this season. Not that any of that really matters at this point, as all that is left to do from a DTTF perspective is try to pick the right players on the right days to amass the highest PRA score and try to take down the last available prize (4th Round), as any chance to win the car, has long since past, at least definitely for me, and mostly everyone else.

    So with that in mind, here is where we are at: (remaining players to pick)

    Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andrew Bogut, various scrubs, etc.
    Already used: Harrison Barnes (31 PRA), Andre Iguodala (9 PRA)

    Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith, various scrubs, etc.
    Already used: Iman Shumpert (23 PRA)

    Both Klay Thompson (concussion) and Kyrie Irving (knee) are coming back from injuries, and their minutes played and effectiveness are both very questionable. So while it seems like a logical game plan to get those players used quickly before they get injured again, it also makes sense to watch a game or two to establish whether they are worth picking or not, based on whether they are effective or not, or with how many minutes they actually get to play. Both of those are serious factors of concern at this point.

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  4. For tonight, if I still had Harrison Barnes or Klay Thompson wasn't coming back from concussion, I would have probably used one of those players, however with neither being a viable option, I will pick Andrew Bogut of the Warriors tonight, hoping for another 20+ PRA game from him. I definitely would rather play Bogut at home than on the road, and he should find it easier tonight playing against the Cleveland big rather than Dwight Howard, so this should seem like a walk in the park compared to that assignment. I also strongly considered playing JR Smith tonight, and if he goes off for a big game tonight, I will definitely regret not picking him. But in any event, I will go with Andrew Bogut in Game #1, hoping for a 20+ PRA effort and not one of his classic poor ones.

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  5. Close, but not close enough. Too bad Cavs can't score in OT.

    Hot picks Curry and Green were below average, but still good. My Barnes got his average... late. LBJ is a steal. Klay is back, after shaking off the 1st half nerves.

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  6. Thank God I picked Irving tonight. Had a good game and looks like he's done for the series.

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  7. Congrats to those that picked Kyrie Irving on the right day for 36 PRA. Anyone that didn't get him picked in Game #1 is now screwed, that would be me included in that group.

    The injury looks serious, Kyrie Irving reportedly left the arena on crutches. If he doesn't play again this year, that is a huge loss, and even if he does somehow come back, how good or effective would he really be after what happened?

    Obviously Kyrie Irving could have played a few minutes and got hurt and put up like 5 PRA in Game #1, and everyone that picked him would have been devastated, but that didn't happen, and now everyone that did actually pick him in Game #1 could have very well got his best/only effort from this series. So Kudos to those that gained a huge advantage by taking a chance here!

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  8. Okay, that was game 1. Didn't look at anything NBA-related for the last week (except for my posts in this blog here that one day). I had prepicked Green, and of course, like Carroll in the last round, he underperformed. I got 5 additional PRA in the overtime, so he barely took the 20PRA-hurdle with a whopping 21. Back in the last round, I picked one of Golden State's big 3 not named Curry and got an 18 from Thompson. Had I switched those two picks I would have gained 16 points. Like some guys I know :)

    Steal of the night? LBJ. I doubt he is gonna go off like that again. 58 in the Finals? Outstanding. Wish I would have gotten that action. Instead on sunday I hope that Curry scores like nobody`s business. Won`t help me much as most people who still have him will pick him that game.

    At least he might finally get me in the four-digit-realm, as I am still stuck with 996 points. I am soo bad this season.

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  9. One of the lucky ones who took Kyrie in Game 1... Delighted with 36, and even better that it may be his only effort this series.

    Got Draymond pre-picked in Game 2, followed by Steph. Warriors need Green to get more rebounds, and am sure he'll go 30+ on Sunday.

    I like Curry on the road so he's set for Game 3.

    LeBron needs another monster in Game 2, but they also need someone else to stand up... Maybe worth picking JR/TT/Mozgov in Game 2. But I'll be going Draymond, followed by Steph.

    Been a horrible DTTF this year... Just reached 80th percentile. Doubt I'll hit 90+ which is poor. Too many bad eggs.

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