Getting Lucky

Game 4 is critical. Cavs win and they command the series and have three chances to close out. Dubs win and they reset the series from scratch and play two of the next three at home. Players will get at it. This may be the turning point of the series, folks! Don't miss it!

As for DTTF, I stand at PCT 95. That's a bad place for someone shooting for Top 100. I am left with a few role players and have used (or failed to use) the stars. I have resigned that I will not reach my goal, but I want to have fun with my last few picks.

The heck with averages... let's take a look at the players' best games this postseason:


The reason I listed that is now I am risking it and looking to be super lucky. The way to do that is not to be safe in any way, and that is why I am discarding the averages. I need my picked player to have the ability (and the playoff history) to explode for some yummy PRAs.

I think this will still go at least Game 6, and for that I would need to set aside my top three from the list for the picking. That would be J.R. Smith (oh my goodness!), Tristan Thompson (good!) and Matthew Dellavedova (Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi oi oi!).

I don't like J.R. Smith in this series. Klay Thompson is a good defender, and J.R. has been average this series. Not up to par with my usual preference. BUT, this is a gamble, so I will pick him.. but not yet in Game 4. I will set him up for Game 5 ;)

Tristan Thompson should be the safe pick for me. He is trending up and has silently carved up the lane on both ends. But he is a hot pick owned at 17%. Can't get lucky the way I want if a lot more others get lucky too. I am looking for a cold pick.

Despite cramping up after Game 3, I think Dellavedova has found his groove and will earn the minutes he had in that game again in Game 4. That is the Cavs' formula to stopping Curry -- put a body (literally) on Curry the whole game. Irving could not do that for reasons that he was also expected to reserve some effort into the side of offense, but Della can focus entirely on hounding Curry as James has taken over the point guard duties. Hopefully, Della has shown the Cavs Nation he is worthy of being resigned this summer. Now, he has to gift Cavs Nation who suddenly stormed to buy his jersey, by keeping it up.

My Game 4 pick: Matthew Dellavedova

If the series goes 7 games, I will add Mozgov into the mix. As I expected, Dubs adjusted to the James-Mozgov pick-and-roll game, and thus the big man was limited in Game 3. I am hoping to catch him in a good game later.

Sooner or later, one of these next four picks I will get a dud. Until then, here's to rolling the dice!

Good luck to me.

16 comments:

  1. Why ____ in Game 4?

    James. Coz he has decided to be great every single game these Finals.

    Curry. A bounce back worthy of a needed win.

    Green. He indirectly proclaimed Dubs needed more effort, and so he will.

    Barnes. With an injured Shumpert and a no-D-J.R., Barnes has it open.

    Iguodala. He understands how important the Finals is to his career.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm also picking Dellavedova. I don't mind the risk, because I don't really have much left to play for anyways after Shumpert getting a 6 after getting injured. Missing out on Irving is killing me, mostly because of how the Irving-Smith-Thompson combo I nearly went with would have given me 77 compared to the 35 that Smith-Thompson-Shumpert gave me. Oh well. If I'm going to be off with all my Finals picks, best that it happens in a season where I don't have much of a chance. I'll take it all this year and hopefully things will fall better into place for the next.

    Looking forward to picking LeBron soon and having a little bit of fun to finish the season. With LeBron, I'm waiting until the trophy is on the line.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Going with Curry in G4. You are definitely right, they need this win and who else would step up to the plate? Yes, its Chef Curry. According to various media outlets, he is now confident on what to do in G4; and will make a "splash" in the first quarter alone. It is yet to be seen if he has already found his groove against Delly (thanks to his 24 point second half in G3) but rest assured that he is the most likely to go nuts after Klay in G2.

    My pre-picked plan
    G4 - Curry
    G5 - Thompson
    G6 - Green/Mozgov/Delly
    G7 - whoever is the best option remaining

    I am sitting in 93rd percentile; I hope I got the order right

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dubs winning at half but unfortunately Curry still lil off

      Delete
  4. I was toying with picking the Aussie, but I got Mozgov after his big game with a disappointing 12 and I am afraid Della will have a drop-off, too. The Thompson that I still have (Tristan) seems to be on the right track. But then again, so seemed Mozgov?

    I will pick Curry probably in game 5. If the Cavs go up 3-1 then he is a must-pick, if the Dubs make it a three-game-series then Curry will do everything possible at home to get a matchball.

    Strange as it is, I am kind of rooting for LeBron. He didn't have any support in his first stint in Cleveland, he didn't have much in the end in Miami, and now he had help and they all got hurt. I can't imagine the Cavs can win another one, at least not right now. Maybe in game 6. My prediction now is Warriors in six. Ask me again tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Would have been nice, yes. But I had his 12 when in every other game... especially in this... well, best not to dwell on it.

      Delete
  5. Cleveland defended home court to take a 2-1 advantage in their series vs. Golden State. Game #4 could turn out to be pivotal in who wins this year's championship. A win by Cleveland tonight gives them a commanding 3-1 lead heading back to Golden State, where even if they lose Game #5, they would still have a chance to wrap the Championship up back at home. If Golden State wins tonight, the series is tied back at 2-2, and the Warriors would head back home with 2 of the next 3 games back at home to decide the Championship. So Game #4 will really sway the momentum of this series one way or the other.

    My pick of Tristan Thompson (24 PRA) lived up to expectations, as he scored slightly more (10 points) to go with his great work on the boards (13 rebounds) for a decent night for him, and his third highest 2015 Playoff PRA (-6 PRA from his 30 PRA best). So definitely can be happy with that.

    The pick(s) of the night were most likely Matthew Dellavedova (29 PRA) and Andre Iguodala (25 PRA) who had phenomenal games for role players. Although LeBron also had another monster game (60 PRA), so nothing wrong picking that either, although better chance he does that again than either Dellavedova or Iguodala.

    Other decent picks: Stephen Curry had a miserable 3 quarters but still managed to put 39 PRA, Tristan Thompson (24 PRA), and David Lee from obscurity for (17 PRA).

    Horrible picks: Harrison Barnes (3 PRA) and Iman Shumpert (6 PRA), Draymond Green (17 PRA) horrible series for him, Timofey Mozgov (12 PRA) after 2 great games this series, and Andrew Bogut as the Beaver with 11 PRA.

    For tonight I will again go with a Cleveland player as they are at home again tonight. Other than LeBron James (saving for elimination/closeout game), I only really have left to pick Matthew Dellavedova and Timofey Mozgov, who both have really picked it up in this series, and JR Smith, who really hasn't. I'll avoid picking JR Smith with his mid teen PRA scores, and hopefully strike lightning again with one of the other two options. Mozgov did his best work in Golden State, not that I truly believe he is going to put up 25 or 28 PRA again playing there, but I will save him in case I have to use a Cleveland player on the road, since Mozgov proved he could do something in Golden State of value.

    So for tonight I will pick Matthew Dellavedova and hope he can resurrect his Game #3 performance (29 PRA) once again. I would be shocked if he did that again, his 2015 Playoff best game thus far, but anything over 20+ PRA would be exceptional for him and I would be ecstatic with that at this point. Also should probably get Dellavedova picked before he gets himself injured out there. With his style of play, it probably is only a matter of time before he seriously injures himself. Hopefully he has at least one more great game in him before the inevitable happens.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Looks like I had another wrong order disaster again tonight. Should have switched Game #3 and Game #4 picks. Dellavedova is ice cold tonight.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still think he can do 20 PRA. He is still kinda shutting down Curry.

      Delete
    2. Nice call. Back to back threes. Hope he keeps it up this half.

      Delete
  7. I took Green, he tied with Curry, LeBron James was "held" to 40 which is what I wanted to happen in G3. With the series tied 2-2 that means G6 is now guaranteed so Curry needs to be held under 40 the next 2 games in order for his G3 PAR to be his best (or tied for best) of the Finals in non forced games. That being said I know it's one game but based on the blowout, I think this is just like the Grizzlies/Warriors series with GS winning in 6 (winning games 1, 4, 5 and 6 and losing games 2 and 3) and just like that series G4 was a blowout.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Those who picked iggy or mosgov got real lucky. Prob only guys they had left, and got monster games from both.
    Here I am picking steph. Smh.. steph 30, i got klay 20 while lbj gave me 66 this week. -_- disgusting

    ReplyDelete
  9. It's one of those picks again. I don't know if I should be happy or not.

    I had T.Thompson for 25, after he had 18, 16 and 24 before that. So that in and of itself is great.

    What's really bugging me is Mozgov. And Dellavedova, kind of. In game 3 I had to chose between Mozgov and Della, I picked Mozgov for his 12 and left out Della for a 29. This game I didn't trust Della, and was correct in that (15), but Mozgov went crazy with a 39, just 1 less than LeBron!!!

    So I had Mozgov and Thompson for 37, could have had Dellavedova and Mozgov for 78. Incredible.

    But, I have to admit, after a 4 and a 15 I wouldn't pick Dellavedova in game 3. And even if I had him left I probably wouldn't have picked Mozgov right after his 12 in game 4. So there is that.

    Now, who to pick for games 5 and 6. I still have one bullet left. Game 6 will be an elimination/closeout game either way, but I slightly prefer Curry now in game 5 at home in a must-win for the Warriors.

    Game 6 will be another matter entirely. But I will think about that after game 5.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I am at 98pct place 402 no bullets left suggestions needed delly Shumpert lee Livingston bogut for game five.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. nice pct 98!

      you should be the one giving me advice :P

      shumpert injured.
      bogut not in successful small ball.
      livingston not sure of minutes.
      lee just warming up.

      take della

      Delete