As for DTTF, I stand at PCT 95. That's a bad place for someone shooting for Top 100. I am left with a few role players and have used (or failed to use) the stars. I have resigned that I will not reach my goal, but I want to have fun with my last few picks.
The heck with averages... let's take a look at the players' best games this postseason:
The reason I listed that is now I am risking it and looking to be super lucky. The way to do that is not to be safe in any way, and that is why I am discarding the averages. I need my picked player to have the ability (and the playoff history) to explode for some yummy PRAs.
I think this will still go at least Game 6, and for that I would need to set aside my top three from the list for the picking. That would be J.R. Smith (oh my goodness!), Tristan Thompson (good!) and Matthew Dellavedova (Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi oi oi!).
I don't like J.R. Smith in this series. Klay Thompson is a good defender, and J.R. has been average this series. Not up to par with my usual preference. BUT, this is a gamble, so I will pick him.. but not yet in Game 4. I will set him up for Game 5 ;)
Tristan Thompson should be the safe pick for me. He is trending up and has silently carved up the lane on both ends. But he is a hot pick owned at 17%. Can't get lucky the way I want if a lot more others get lucky too. I am looking for a cold pick.
Despite cramping up after Game 3, I think Dellavedova has found his groove and will earn the minutes he had in that game again in Game 4. That is the Cavs' formula to stopping Curry -- put a body (literally) on Curry the whole game. Irving could not do that for reasons that he was also expected to reserve some effort into the side of offense, but Della can focus entirely on hounding Curry as James has taken over the point guard duties. Hopefully, Della has shown the Cavs Nation he is worthy of being resigned this summer. Now, he has to gift Cavs Nation who suddenly stormed to buy his jersey, by keeping it up.
My Game 4 pick: Matthew Dellavedova
If the series goes 7 games, I will add Mozgov into the mix. As I expected, Dubs adjusted to the James-Mozgov pick-and-roll game, and thus the big man was limited in Game 3. I am hoping to catch him in a good game later.
Sooner or later, one of these next four picks I will get a dud. Until then, here's to rolling the dice!
Good luck to me.