No Griffin, No Nothin'

Without Griffin (and Paul in my case), we'd wish their series and Bulls' be done with as soon as possible. It's unlikely, but sweeps on these series will mean we don't have to labor much on picking aside from DeAndre Jordan and the Bulls' Three:


Gasol is the clear choice, especially that he doesn't have to work hard on defense with Kevin Love inactive. I just think Love will not return anytime during this series, that we can wait to pick Gasol at home.

Butler is having a career year and is highly dependable. His counterpart J.R. Smith is suspended for Games 1 & 2, but I think that benefits the Cavs more because now the defensive-minded Iman Shumpert will be guarding Butler. We can wait to pick him later for when he faces Smith who is a one-dimensional player.

Rose has the lowest PRA of the three but can explode in any game. He is also highly prone to injury. Noone wants anybody to get hurt, but I am picking him now for insurance's sake.

If you still have Griffin, and Paul remains hobbled by injury, pick him now because he will have to shoulder much of the scoring. Expect more of those back-to-the basket plays.

Good luck with your picks!

39 comments:

  1. Tempted to pick from Chicago but the fact that Smith and Love are both out means that the Bulls might steal Game 1. With that in mind, I will skip from picking on that series and will focus my attention on the HOU-LAC for today. Made up my mind and picked Josh Smith because I think that he will be tasked to defend Blake if Terrence Jones is unable to do it. The Rockets also need a guy who can defend multiple positions and Smith fits the bill. If the Rockets have Beverley starting at PG, they can surely win this series. Hoping my cold pick doesn't drop me that far below the percentile

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    1. was thinking about cavs' being undermanned, but i think lebron is that good he can carry this one.

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  2. who are you planning to pick in game 2 if you're saving both gasol and butler for home games?

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    1. if clips lose g1, deandre.
      if not, gasol.

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  3. My Beal pick was awesome and it could have been better, he would have cracked 40+ easily if he didn't get injured and miss most of the 4th.

    Right now I'm thinking Crawford with CP3 if he's out for today, if not I'll post my pick later.

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    1. hard to figure if cp3 will play. better pick someone else now

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  4. What do you think about Crawford today? If CP3 out that's a good choice?
    I'm on the 5th place in my league with only 58% :/
    So I'm afraid on another bust.

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    1. hard to figure if cp3 will play. better pick someone else now

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  5. I still have Paul and Jordan left. and I will go with De Andre today, as Paul is still a slight doubt.
    Rooting for Bulls so I don't want to pick from there yet.

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    1. DeAndre is a good pick too. Hope he gets hack-attacked, that favors his PRA

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  6. Wow, seems like everybody is on the Rockets to win. I think otherwise. I'd stay away from any Clippers, especially if you've already picked Griffin or Paul last round. Not sure exactly who wins the Bulls and Cavs series (I think Cavs but that might change), but the Bulls are deep so gotta start quickly. They have 3 great picks and another good one in Noah. I'm starting with Derrick Rose, for the same reasons as Taong. Unless you are extremely convinced in the Rockets beating the Clippers, I'd stay away from the likes of Jordan, Crawford, Barnes, and Redick, who are sure to have a good game to pick up the slack. If the Clippers advance, you are seriously in deep trouble.

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    1. I agree, i wanted to pick Gasol first, but maybe i change it to Rose :p But definitly pick a Bull (I picked Griffin an Paul already, so i want to stay away from LAC-Rockets as long as possible) Cavs are a little low on +20PRA (Lebron/Irving) without Love (maybe Mozgov will pick up some extra rebounds?) So pick a Bull first is the logic options (doesn't matter much who you chose)

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    2. Exactly. Even if the Bulls advance, the Cavs have weak depth. So even if the Bulls win the series, we probably need to use at least one Bull at some point.

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    3. the playoffs emergence of josh smith is timely. rockets just too strong, especially with cp3 out

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  7. I'm picking Butler today. Even though the never bet against the Spurs mentality failed this year there's still the never bet against Lebron (at least to make it to the finals) mentality. If anybody can stop them it's the Bulls and I expect a fight. Time to start picking Bulls now. Clippers / Rockets is also a toss up I see ever so slightly favoring the Rockets. Having already picked 2 clippers I have plenty of time before deploying Deandre. I'm kinda worried about the Shumpert defense but honestly Butler has to set the tone and play tough. I'll pick Rose at home. He won't get injured his year. He's been through enough torment. Even the devil himself couldn't be that cruel...

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    1. i also think rose will give it all now. he's been targeting this for long, vs lebron. gotta hit while smith is out.

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  8. Butler his home(37) -away(31) PRA hugely favores picking him at home, but maybe he will surprise ;)

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  9. Atlanta punted their first home game and gave Washington home court and the advantage in their series. Atlanta will need to win Game #2 at home or risk going out as quickly as the Toronto Raptors did while punting away their first two games at home, eventually getting swept. Al Horford (41 PRA) was the best pick from the losing teams, and if Atlanta gets eliminated, he was definitely the pick of the day.

    Atlanta may now get eliminated but Memphis definitely will, and very soon. If Atlanta keeps playing like they did in Game #1, they both may be eliminated on the same day, but I still believe the Washington vs. Atlanta series goes much longer than the Memphis vs. GSW one.

    Without Mike Conley, Memphis has zero chance to beat the Warriors, they might not even win a game in this series, if he doesn't have a big impact if/when he actually does return. And even then Memphis simply doesn't have enough firepower to beat the Warriors.

    Playing Mike Conley's replacement(s) was a horrible idea. Beno Udrih (9 PRA) and Nick Calathes (3 PRA) were absolutely horrible. Have no idea how Beno Udrih ever had a 34 PRA game in Round #1, but in this game he was virtually invisible, and Calathes was even worse. At least Udrih has some offensive upside, but with splitting time it didn't work at all here. Jeff Green (15 PRA) and Courtney Lee (13 PRA) also were miserable. Only Tony Allen (22 PRA) cracked the 20+ PRA plateau in this game for Memphis other than Randolph and Gasol, and that was the first time Tony Allen had over 20 PRA in the entire playoffs.

    The obvious two choices did well enough for the Grizzlies and were the picks to make on this day, Zach Randolph (34 PRA) and Marc Gasol (33 PRA). They were the only good/great choices Memphis has at this point. Everything else is a dice roll. Unfortunately they will play 4 games, and you need more than 2 options, before the only series left to pick from is the Atlanta vs. Washington one (unless the Hawks make a quick exit as well), but that should at least go longer than the Memphis/GSW series no matter what.

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    1. nice analysis on the griz series. even with conley, gs just too good

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  10. nice analysis :)

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  11. Okay, my pick yesterday was not good, netted me a 0 ;)

    Tonight it's Rose on the most rest he will have in these playoffs. Hope for 35+.

    Tomorrow it must be a Hawk. Caroll was my favored pick for game 1 that I forgot to pick, he is now the first Hawk to get 20+ points in five consecutive Playoffgames, can he make it six in a row? Or maybe I schould pick Horford or Millsap as the most reliable choices? Decisions, decisions.

    Atlanta and Memphis play on the same dates, there are only two Grizzlies that you have to pick, I plan on picking them at home in games 3 and 4. Curious to see if the Wizards can pull it off and oust the Hawks.

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  12. For tonight I can't say that I am sure about who wins either of these two series, Bulls vs. Cavaliers, or Clippers vs. Rockets. Without Kevin Love, does Cleveland really have enough to beat the Bulls? And even so at best with a real stretch they have 3 possible decent picks and 2 great ones remaining, to select from. The Bulls have several more options.

    Cleveland beat Chicago 3 wins to 1 head to head (2 home, 1 road for the Cavs). The Clippers and Rockets split 4 games 2-2 with each team winning one on the road. The Rockets have only won 3 of the last 10 vs. the Clippers, and I do believe they will eventually prevail in that series, even if they do punt the first game played in Houston, although not totally confident. With Bulls vs. Cavs, anything can happen really.

    The Clippers vs. Rockets series will definitely be the higher scoring one of the two, and they seem to have a slight edge head to head when playing vs. each other. Redick, Jamal Crawford, and even Matt Barnes have had more success vs. Houston ( a less defensive team) vs. what they have ever put up vs. the Spurs in the past. So those players can be played here with decent expectations, other than Chris Paul and the elite Blake Griffin. DeAndre Jordan has also had some great games vs. Houston, but most of those happened while Dwight Howard was not playing vs. him, so that may be a huge factor in how well Jordan does here vs. the past.

    I will pick from the higher scoring series, Clippers vs. Rockets, and pick a Rocket player tonight. Going with Terrence Jones for Houston hoping for 25+ PRA from him tonight. I toyed with the idea of picking JJ Redick or Jamal Crawford, (and still might if Chris Paul really doesn't play), but for now I chose to go with Terrence Jones on home court and watch some other things transpire for future picks.

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    1. cavs 39%FG
      bulls 52%FG
      yet bulls only lead by 5
      cavs rallied from down 16
      cavs getting it done with D
      liking it

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    2. bah awful 3q D by cavs
      good news: rose looking to shoot
      bad news: winning

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    3. "3mCleveland Cavaliers@cavs
      We're aware that our credit card systems at @TheQArena are down. We're working hard to correct this and will keep fans posted."

      so that's why, home crowd didn't get to eat at halftime. no energy?

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  13. I took James Harden, why? Two things maybe three, if the Spurs are better than the Rockets and the Clippers beat the Spurs, they'll win this series against the Rockets too, many people are probably going with Clippers since they already used Blake like me and don't want to dare imagine the team they thought would lose that won to advance twice more than initially expected (and that means a great opportunity to pass a chunk of players) and with Chris Paul out James Harden should have a super game (50+), of course if the Clippers could somehow pull this one out without Paul (and better yet in OT) that would be superb! However I have to believe the Clippers will win the series even if they lose G1.

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    1. 17 PAR at halftime, just 8 regular points including a completely invisible 2nd quarter with no regular points and just 2 measly PAR overall, with no CP Harden should have a 50+ night, but if he doesn't even get 40 he is a failure of a pick. Only when I pick someone does a superplayer have a scoreless (regular points) quarter.

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    2. Good news is Harden got 13 PAR in the 3rd quarter, horrible news though he committed THREE FREAKIN FOULS in that quarter, putting himself in foul trouble and should there be OT, he probably won't be around for much of it.

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  14. what do you guys think about picking demarre carroll tomorrow??

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    1. I like demarre but he should be down the line and not picked ahead of horford and millsap

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    2. really?? but i kinda want to pick him before he starts to cool down because i really dont think his 20 ppg scoring will continue for much longer

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    3. follow your instinct. if you believe, he will cool down, might as well pick him.

      anyways, difference in PRA vs others is small. go ahead, he's alright.

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  15. Was that convincing enough for everybody? Load up your Rockets, here comes Game 2. Who's it gonna be? Harden? Howard? Other? I think I've got Dwight Howard locked and ready to go!

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  16. 2 upsets tonight.
    a lot of things to work out in dttf for g2.

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    1. Easy decision to me - pick against the team that just got beat by the team without their star player. The Rockets looked defeated at the end. After only one game!

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    2. I'm thinking of picking Shumpert (had back to back 20+ games) before jr smith returns, if LAC sweeps the rockets, you can still pick Harden and Howard

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