Home & Away

The masked Conley-led Grizzlies "seem" to have the upperhand with two straight home games after tying the series 1-1. However, it is not so farfetched to reckon that the Warriors can still steal one in Memphis. So, I don't have any urgency at all to pick from this series for Saturday.

I have Conley left to pick from the Grizzlies, and I have him planned for Game 4. However if they win Game 3, I'll pick one from Curry or Green from the Warriors for Monday (even hearing myself say this sounds like I am fooling myself).

As for the Wizards, I really cannot imagine them winning without the injured Wall against the Hawks. Between this and the other series for Saturday, this is where I have more certainty so I'll get my pick from the Wizards.

I already pre-picked Beal, but his 39% ownership for Saturday is just too hot for my liking. Gortat is cold at 6%. I know that at this point in the playoffs it's a very shallow reason to have a cold pick. And so like many of us trying to do an unorthodox decision, I searched for other reasons to do it...

Home and away records.

* Bradley Beal. Playoffs average PRAs: Away 33, Home 27

* Marcin Gortat. Playoffs average PRAs: Away 22, Home 39

I'm quite happy to pick Gortat at home, even if he gets high 20s PRA. Here is my pick plan...

Saturday: Gortat
Monday: Conley (if Griz loses G3)
Wednesday: Beal (if Wiz loses G3)

If you have news regarding whether Wall plays or not, feel free to blast the comments. If he plays, I'll change back to Beal for Saturday.

33 comments:

  1. You aren't concerned about an impending logjam in the Bulls / Cavs and Clips / Rockets series? There's at minimum 2 games left to pick 4 players (Irving, James, Harden and Howard).

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    1. concerned but not worried. still contemplating. standby for that date's post.

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  2. I feel good about getting a 39 from Harden. Sitting with a 27 after 3 quarters and him not getting back into the game around the 6 minute mark of the 4th quarter in a blowout, I thought I just lost Harden on his worst performance. I stopper watching, and that seemed to have sparked Harden to a miracle 12 extra PRA. I'll live with a performance equal to what he got in the previous 2 games, since I wasn't going with a Bull and the only other pick I would have made, Ariza, got only a 13. I've been unsure of who I'll pick for Game 4 on Sunday. I had Jimmy Butler pre-picked, and still considered picking him, but I don't think I can justify it with the Bulls up 2-1. Argh. I'll have to pick another Rocket, which I wanted to do in Game 5. Picking a Rocket scrub in front of their home crowd is much better, but sometimes you have to make a pick in the series you are more confident in and hope for the best.

    Sunday's pick: Trevor Ariza
    Reason: Josh Smith isn't getting the minutes, and at least Ariza plays. Terrence Jones is also an option, but I'll chance with Ariza.
    Expectation: Not great. Could be as low as a 10, or as high as a 30. Hard player to predict. Pick and pray time for me.

    Clippers 2-1 and Bulls 2-1. This is going to get interesting. I continue to be confident in the Clippers and am really not sure about the Bulls or Cavs. Game 4 between them decides where I go next.

    Gortat is a great pick for tonight. I've got him pre-picked for game 4. I don't mind Beal as the hot pick.

    Careful with your Warriors. If the Grizzlies are up 2-1, I think it's too soon to panic. Gotta wait until it's 3-1. If we lose Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, so be it. This is a likely championship team. Last year the Spurs were down 2-1 in a series. It happens. The best teams find a way to win when it matters the most.

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  3. Already pre-picked Gortat for this week, and this probably will help us in climbing up the ranks. He plays better at home and has averaged 15ppg when having a 3+ day rest prior to playing. Not expecting a lot from him since Wall might not play. I was tempted to pick Paul Pierce but I felt that a logjam might come up if I still have Beal, Gortat, Gasol and Conley waiting in the wings.

    Tomorrow is going to be another challenging pick for me. Will I go with Harden and risk losing Kyrie or LeBron if the Bulls go up 3-1 or will I pick a Cav this early in the playoffs. Decisions, decisions...

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    1. thanks for the figures on days-rest. more reason to go gortat

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  4. Chicago beat Cleveland on a buzzer beater three pointer by Derrick Rose (44 PRA) and took a 2-1 lead in their series vs. the Cavs. LeBron (49 PRA) pretty much carried his team to almost winning, as virtually everyone else other than Tristan Thompson (24 PRA) laid down on the Cleveland team. Kyrie Irving was especially horrible (15 PRA) and is playing hurt, and contributing very little at this point. Even with the Cleveland Cavs totally undermanned now with their injuries to top players and missing Kevin Love for the duration of the Playoffs, I still don't trust this series. Because with LeBron James playing, Cleveland still has a pulse, and they did destroy the Bulls in Game #2, and almost won Game #3 in Chicago. It is best to leave this series alone, until you see more, unless you play a replacement for Pau Gasol who has a hamstring issue, with a player that normally wouldn't be much of a factor. With Cleveland, you can always pick LeBron (or Derrick Rose) in an elimination game, if they get to that, and the way Kyrie Irving is playing, you can play practically anyone else and get that same miserable score. So no loss if his injury status remains unchanged and he continues to struggle out there. If he rebounds, they could easily still win this. This series is way too close to call at this point.

    In the other series, Houston vs. LA Clippers, it looks like the Clippers have things well under control to move on to Round #3. Houston has major issues on defense, as in they don't play any, and the Clippers even playing without one of their two best players, look completely dominant, and if they didn't collapse in Game #2 could be looking to sweep in Game #4. Even so they certainly don't seem threatened at all to prevent them from advancing.



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    1. they don't play D indeed. they have the guys but they lean more to O

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  5. As far as picking the right player, and or taking advantage of gifts put out there by injuries, to preserve rosters while at the same time still putting up great/decent PRA scores, I have failed miserably once again to do this. I clearly was going to pick Austin Rivers (33 PRA) if Chris Paul did not play, even knowing the Clippers were going to win because when Chris Paul comes back to start and play full minutes, Austin Rivers isn't going to do squat, or at least he hasn't done much up until the last 2 out of 3 games. Naturally when they announced Chris Paul was going to start, I went with Trevor Ariza (a totally miserable 13 PRA) who was Plan B and switched picks after initially picking Rivers and planning on going with him up until the Chris Paul announcement. Knowing too much here cost a lot of PRA, as I totally wish I wasn't able to make that change and stuck with my first pick of Rivers.

    Trevor Ariza ended up being an incredibly frustrating pick. He had 1 PRA at halftime, ended up with 13 PRA which was somewhat miraculous, since he didn't seem to be in this game at all, and was virtually invisible throughout. Trevor Ariza's 13 PRA was a Net Loss of -17 PRA from his playoff best (so far) 30 PRA, and was a Net Loss of -20 PRA vs. Austin Rivers (33 PRA) score.

    So it was definitely a miserable DTTF night all the way around.

    Best pick(s): James Harden (39 PRA), but he is capable of better, although hasn't exactly shown up when the pressure has been on in the past seasons Playoffs. Even though their team won and looks likely to move on, both Austin Rivers and JJ Redick, 33 PRA each, it would be hard to argue that they were not the best picks to take on this night. Both players had career nights, and in the case of Austin Rivers, what are the odds he does something like this, especially if/when Chris Paul returns full time. I know I really regret not picking Austin Rivers last night. That is going to sting for quite a while.

    Horrible picks: Kyrie Irving (15 PRA), Pau Gasol (14 PRA) and Trevor Ariza (13 PRA), all way below average, and the first two players are devastating losses to those that made the plunge to pick them on this night. Condolences for these horrible performances, and to me for picking the dreadful Trevor Ariza. At least Houston will be gone very soon.

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  6. For tonight I am going with Ramon Sessions of the Washington Wizards, playing in place of John Wall, who is listed as doubtful right now by most sites. As mentioned previously, this is another situation where you can take advantage of an injury to lengthen your rosters and turn someone you ordinarily would not pick (Sessions), into someone you can pick, and with a hope of earning a decent PRA score.

    Ramon Sessions put up 28 PRA in John Wall's absence in Game #2 on the road, and if he can hopefully put up 28+ PRA again tonight, I would gladly take that.

    The Memphis series, with them winning Game #2 in Golden State, can wait another day, hopefully giving more information on who to pick for the remaining days of that series going forward.

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    1. sessions is a good pick everyone

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    2. 8/3/6 not so hot. and since beal is 40 %OWNED, with only 26. it was a great time to go ahead.

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  7. John Wall out. Could mean more looks and responsibility for Beal, Gortat, Pierce, Porter, Sessions, et all, but it could also mean more defensive attention. We shall see. I'm sticking with Beal. I think he takes more responsibility and runs with it.

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  8. Millsap won't start, got the flu. Excellent opportunity for Gortat to shine :D

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    1. and yet more reasons to play gortat.

      7pra at 8th minute mark

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    2. Ever since Gortat scored with 5:48 left in the 1st quarter, he has become invisible, absolutely nothing since despite spending the entire quarter on the floor.

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    3. they're not calling plays for him anymore. nene's playing D well

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    4. Sounds like the DTTFs devils has spoken again, Forty one freakin percent winning is outrageous!

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    5. Nene who has done nothing all playoffs, is at 17 PAR while Gortat is still stuck at 7, this is ridiculous!

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    6. gortat 13 at half. good enough

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  9. I'm saving Beal today for one reason: Seeing 40% have him picked and taking a pick like that with other good options in a non elimination game is probably the 2nd worst DTTFs sin, besides never picking such a player at all.

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  10. It's terrible that Wall is out, that DC sports curse just won't go away and now it looks like the Wizards won't even end that dreadful 33 year stretch of no 2nd round home wins, probably the most disgraceful playoff futility of all time let alone advance to the next round. As a result, I am beginning to pop open the Wizards but (most likely) lost Wall, just like we all lost Love and maybe Irving which has turned the Cavs into practically a 1 man team, like they were in LeBron James first run in Cleveland.

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    1. what is this dc sports curse? a lot like cleveland's? i'm sure with countless sports cities and only four major sports trophies a year, a lot of them have droughts.

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    2. Funny thing I was just thinking about Cleveland having a sports curse like DC except with 1 less sports franchise involved. I'm talking about serious citywide 20+ year droughts and individual 30+ year franchise droughts. The Wizards can't even win a 2nd round home game in 33 freakin years!

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  11. 14.0 ATL - Mike Muscala makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists) 101-101

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    1. 0.0 WSH - Paul Pierce makes 21-foot two point shot 101-103

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  12. In terms of the Wizards they had a collapse for the ages, up by 19 after 3 and were tied with seconds left before Pierce hit a buzzer beater to finally end a 33 stretch of futility, giving the Wizards their first 2nd round home win since 1982!

    In terms of DTTFs, another potential OT (this one which would have been a miracle) was STOLEN from me by a buzzer beater for the 2nd straight day! What are the odds of that?!
    As for the picks themselves, what is with the DTTFs gods allowing a 41% pick to beat all but 3 other players (and one of those was tied), who were picked by a combined 1% of drivers!
    Otto Porter and Nene Hilario were surprises with 30 and 28 PAR respectively.

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  13. Wow, I have absolutely no idea what I'm going to do on Monday. These series are very symmetrical right now. Tomorrow's games might provide some insight on how likely it is that the home teams tie it up on the road. Not going to panic until teams are down 3-1, but it just leaves us to figure out - who do we even pick? I might have to make an early withdrawal into my Atlanta Hawks, just because of how deep they are. Or perhaps Otto Porter, who's been huge with Wall out. Or perhaps I'll buy a day with Ramon Sessions. Decisions, decisions.

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    1. That should read "that the higher seeds tie it up on the road"

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  14. Well what do you know, both the Wizards and the Grizzlies won their respective games at home. Both wins put a major wrench in my pre-picked plans. If not for Paul Pierce's buzzer beater, a Wizard pick looked wise today; however, that wasn't the case. Might pick another Hawk just in case the Warriors go deep 1-3 against the Grizz, then its going to be Curry in G5 at home.

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    1. Millsap got the flu, Horford dinged up his knee and didn't re-enter in the 4Q. If this continues, the WIzards might just get lucky and beat this team. Otto Porter's length and playmaking ability has hurt the Hawks

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  15. Crazy Conference Semis so far..
    Wouldn't be surprised if all four of the series were tied at two a piece going into Tuesday's Game 5s.
    This is obviously fun to watch and great for the competition but quite the dilemma for D2TF.....

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    1. I don't see the Rockets winning but the other 3 maybe 2-2.

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