Bye Magic Eight, Hey Final Four


After two rounds, I'm 9 points out of Top 10% (Kenny Smith is 889 points at PCT 90). I had two sub-20 PRA picks, and I already used Harden, Howard and Ariza from the West, and Horford from the East. I am guessing most of DTTF have 3 or 4 of those Final Four ballers already used, but maybe the top 5% still have at least three teams intact. It will be tough for me to crack PCT 97 at end of the 3rd round. If the West series goes 6 games or more, I may pick a Warrior or two too early just to avoid picking duds this round.

Here is my not-set-in-stone pick plan:
05/19 Terrence Jones
05/20 Paul Millsap
05/21 Josh Smith
05/22 Jeff Teague
05/23 Corey Brewer
05/24 DeMarre Carroll

If Warriors lose two games at any point, I'll start cracking at Curry, Green and Thompson. I have to keep at least the Cavs whole for the Finals. Cavs have to really steal a game at Atlanta.

Time to pull out some tricks this round!

13 comments:

  1. Took a gamble yesterday and it backfired big time. I can live with it, because I picked from the team I felt was going to lose, and stuck with that even though I had the wrong team. Kudos to the Rockets. I thought of them as a team who was still learning how to win the big games, but they've now done it sooner than I thought they would. I thought the Clippers were ready to take the next step. On the bright side, I get to pick Jason Terry this year. Ah yeah, JET!!!!

    With only 3 quality Rockets left over, I'm starting with a Warrior on Tuesday. Klay Thompson it is. Plays well at home, I'm hoping he makes a big splash tomorrow (...see what I did there?). Warriors in 5.

    For Wednesday, I'm starting with Millsap as well. I like him to do well, as he usually does. Cavs in 6.

    Well done on 87th percentile. I dropped to the 70th percentile by picking Josh Smith instead of DeAndre Jordan. 43 PRA back of you right now. That can be made up with some good picks, so I'll need to get lucky and catch some sketchy Rockets on the right night!

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  2. i have used 4 rockets and 2 hawks as of the moment.. I am now sitting at 913 points (95th percentile) with the name "thehalfcourtheave".

    I hope I can continue my streak of good and timely picks even though I am currently having troubles on who to choose. Since I have picked 4 rocket players, I am gambling on choosing a Warrior in the next game and try on picking T-Jones, Brewer and to some extent Terry on home games. The Warriors had the Rockets' number in the regular season, winning 4-0; all double-digits. This series will definitely be a shootout and I expect long rebounds from both squads, which prompts me to go with Harrison Barnes on the 19th. It will be hard to slow down Curry with Ariza and Brewer on his tail but the Warriors have far more lengthy defenders in Iguodala, Livingston and Barnes all willing to put the beard on halt. The Rockets might also play small with Jones and Smith which will spell bad fortunes for DH12. Which is why I want to see what happens at G1 before committing with Bogut on G2.

    pre-picked and subject to change depending on how things play out in G1 and 2:
    5/19 - H. Barnes
    5/20 - T. Thompson
    5/21 - A. Bogut / A. Iguodala
    5/22 - A. Horford
    5/23 - T. Jones
    5/24 - D. Carroll
    5/25 - C. Brewer
    5/26 - K. Irving

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  3. Okay, second try.

    My picks in the second round:
    16 - forgot to pick, wanted to pick Carroll for 27, sigh
    17 - Rose, 35, picked him on three days rest, wanted 35, got 35
    18 - Horford, 28, could have been better, this was his only game out of 12 where he got less than 7 rebounds (4)
    19 - Smith, 15, that was a dud, I wanted to be clever and not pick one of the big two (who got 42 and 43)
    20 - Harden, 39, this was right in the middle this round, he had 42, 47 and 46, but also 37, 35 and 28
    21 - Randolph, 33, good pick, that was his last game 30+, he was second best of the day, 5 behind Gasol
    22 - Irving, 18, bad pick, I had to get him out of the way before risking losing him altogether. Of course the Cavs won, and worse, he was still hurt and bounced back the very next game
    23 - Porter, 12, worst pick of this round, he had 22, 28, 30 in this series leading up to this, then followed with 19 and 16. Should have picked Beal for his 47 and then Wall when I finally picked Beal, that would have gotten mit 36 more points
    24 - Howard, 35, soso, he had 35 after three quarters and then got benched, Harden raced to a 47
    25 - Marc Gasol, 35, daily leader, 11 more than Randolph, so at least I picked these two in the correct order
    26 - Butler, 26, disappointing, but everyone had him, so no loss
    27 - Beal, 38, picked him above Wall who got 39, good pick
    28 - Paul, 41, good pick from the losing team, still not happy the Clippers lost the series

    points: 848 (875 with my Carroll pick)
    rank: 6043 (3515 with my Carroll pick)
    percentile: 75 (? with my Carroll pick)
    seeing that I get to pick Carroll now in the third round somewhere down the road I will cut my losses and stop whining about the missed pick :)

    The best thing: I finally got someone I know to play the game. He is in my league (German Superleague), and I just passed him again with my Paul pick. It's much more fun when you play against a direct competitor.

    For the conference finals and the following round I have left:
    Warriors: everyone
    Rockets: everyone but Harden, Howard, Smith
    Hawks: everyone but Horford (especially Carroll)
    Cavs: everyone but Irving (and Love, naturally)

    Seeing as most everyone is missing out on Rockets players that's not too bad, all things considered. Up until now I was not that lucky with my roleplayers (didn't pick Rivers or Crawford when Paul was out, or Shumpert when Smith was suspended, gambled and lost with Smith and Porter after a good run, to name just a few), and that is needed now more than ever.

    Picking Millsap, James or Curry and getting lucky is one thing, but getting good nights out of Schröder, Shumpert, Bogut or Terry, that's the finer art.

    As of now, I have 9 players in each conference who got 15+ PRA in the playoffs so far, with the JET close behind with his 14,6. I will need anywhere between 12 and 21 players (three sweeps or three game 7s). So no need to dip too low, is there?

    In the West I will save Curry, Green and Thompson for the time the Rockets win their second game and still have three players each with PRA between 15 and 19 (Ariza with a 21,7). So I will pick four players on their homecourt in the first four games, starting with Harrison Barnes on tuesday.

    In the East, likewise I will save the King along with Millsap and Teague. I don't have the biggest confidence in Kyle Korver right now and will wait for Schröder, so I will do what I wanted to do in the second round and start with DeMarre Carroll.

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  4. After 2 rounds rank 10 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (984 points)
    Already used: Harden, Howard, Ariza, Horford
    Still intact: Warriors, Cavs

    Planning on taking Jones (still thinking about Brewer though, who played great against the warriors in the regular season ) and Carroll (with Korver on a cold streak, the only dependable wingplayer)

    Looking real Good :D

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    1. If Irving doesn't play though, I think I take a gamble at Dellavedova

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    2. I'm nervous about Carroll in this round. He's drawn the tough job of guarding LeBron, so it remains to be seen what his offensive output will be (or if he'll get into foul trouble).

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    3. Jimmy Butler also guarded Lebron and was still able to put up decent numbers. And while Carroll defended Beal (=their best player) against the Wizards, he wa still able to put up decent numbers. But I get your point, Lebron is Lebron. If Hawks get eliminated though you have to pick him somewhere along the road, and do you really want to pick Carrol guarding Lebron in an elimination game? I'd rather take my chances in a (less important) game 1, before Lebron starts forcing things and drawing fouls to get his team the W. Do you think my thoughts are logical? Because I know that picking Millsap is the decent thing to do (= safest pick) and maybe I will chicken out and change them in the end. I just hope to get injury update on Irving in time because I'm on GMT+1 so I can't stick around to wait till the game starts :(

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    4. just saw on NBA.com that Irvings says he wil play

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    5. I think that's logical. I think Carroll makes a lot of sense. I'm just nervous about him. If Atlanta were to advance, I'd want him in the next round. I'm intrigued at whether Kyle Korver will be a better pick this round.

      Same goes for Draymond Green. I'm picking him in Game 2, before he potentially draws the LeBron James matchup.

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    6. Also, considering that you are in 10th right now, I'd say, trust your instincts. They are serving you better than mine have been serving me haha.

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  5. Wishful thinking vs. Logical thinking:

    The Clippers were well on their way to advancing to the 3rd Round and doing so impressively, and then something happened. In Game #4 vs. the Rockets @ Houston, the Clippers mailed it in and the Rockets crushed them. No big deal, there happens a lot. Unfortunately for the Clippers, this is where things go downhill fast. All the Clippers have to do is win their home game and advance. They even start out great leading late in the game by 19 points. This lead should be totally enough for any team with a spine to close out their opponent on home court. But the Clippers failed to get the job done here, end up getting routed in Game #6 at home, and the inevitable happens. Momentum has now shifted, the series goes back to Houston for a deciding Game #7, with everything now against the Clippers and everything in favor of the Rockets to advance. History of the home team in a Game #7 is well documented, home team normally wins, plus after the epic collapse of the Clippers in the previous two games, the writing was completely etched in stone for the outcome of all of this. The Houston Rockets destroyed the Clippers @ home, and now shockingly, it is actually the Rockets and not the Clippers that are moving on to the 3rd Round. Only the 9th time in league history that a team down 1 games to 3 has come back to win a series. Houston should be absolutely elated, as they looked dead in the water. And no shame is enough for the Clippers after this epic meltdown.

    After all of that, the Rockets are now the team that is advancing. Unfortunately I already have used 5 Rockets players in the process of thinking they were the team going home. I even made my Game #7 pick, selecting a Rocket, even logically knowing that the Rockets were going to be the team winning, and not the Clippers. Basically I picked based on how I wanted this to work out rather than, how it was most likely going to work out after the Clippers collapse was in full motion.

    I should have picked a Clippers player by all logic, but instead I picked Corey Brewer of the Rockets for 17 PRA (Net loss of -14 PRA vs. Brewer's best playoff game of 31 PRA). A far better decision to make here would have been JJ Redick (19 PRA) or Jamal Crawford (18 PRA). Even though I had reservations about picking DeAndre Jordan because I expected the Rockets to employ the Hack-a-Jordan, that never materialized at all really. And DeAndre Jordan ended up with a decent game (33 PRA). I wasn't going to pick him because of the Hack-a-Jordan threat, and him potentially ending up on the bench, but knowing what I know now, or what I should have known picking Jamal Crawford or JJ Redick would have been far better choices. Picking a Rockets player ended up being a moronic move, I wish I did not make. Especially when looking at the numbers and seeing that Corey Brewer has actually had decent results vs. the Warriors in the past. I would much rather have him still left to pick from my woeful list of Rockets remaining to be picked.

    What a horrendous situation! Anyone else that has managed to save any or especially all of their big name Rocket players (Harden, Howard, Ariza), has a distinct advantage over everyone else for Round #3 and Round #4 prizes. For everyone playing from behind and for people gutting their Houston roster, all I can say is I hope the Warriors make quick work of the Rockets, hopefully a 4 game sweep, would be ideal.

    Best picks from the losing team: Blake Griffin (33 PRA), Chris Paul (41 PRA), DeAndre Jordan (33 PRA)

    Horrible picks: Matt Barnes (3 PRA), Austin Rivers (5 PRA, didn't expect much from him), Jason Terry (7 PRA), etc.

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    1. That should read Blake Griffin (44 PRA) above.

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  6. For the two series, Golden State won all 4 games vs. the Rockets this season, with the smallest margin of victory 11 points. A sweep, while not entirely likely would be ideal here, because of my plight of having little to nothing to pick from the Rockets squad

    For Atlanta vs. Cleveland, Atlanta won 3 of the 4 games played this season (2 home, 1 road) every win by at least 8 points. Cleveland's won win @ home was by 33 points.

    I like the Warriors to win easily and hopefully quickly, and Atlanta seems to be favored to win, although the LeBron factor always gives his team a fighting chance. A lot will depend on Kyrie Irving and how healthy he is, and how much of a factor he is in this series. Irving has had a 51 PRA game vs. Atlanta in the past, as well as other good games. Jeff Teague has also been a standout vs. Cleveland in the past, and also has a 51 PRA game to his credit.

    Going forward (players to pick):

    Golden State Warriors (All Available)

    Houston Rockets (Jason Terry + Josh Smith and various garbage)

    Cleveland Cavaliers (All Available except Iman Shumpert)

    Atlanta Hawks (All Available)

    Having nothing left to pick from the Houston squad is not going to be a lot of fun. This is the Indiana Pacers situation from 2014 all over again. Going to have to get real creative here. The prospects of taking down Round #3 and Round #4 prizes are very bleak because of that. Hopefully Houston goes down in flames quickly, but even that is probably not going to be enough to salvage this disaster, as someone out there will always have more players left, and do better with them.

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