Thirty PRA

Unlike Day 1, this day's matches are more predictable. The Cavs, Hawks, Grizzlies and Spurs are all expected to advance to the Semis. There are four losing teams to choose from and a lot of options. However, I'll list just four ballers who averages at least 30 PRA. The Celtics and Nets just do not have consistent 30-PRA guys I can get excited about picking this early.

LaMarcus Aldridge (POR) 35 PRA.
Chris Paul (LAC) 33 PRA.
Blake Griffin (LAC) 33 PRA. 
Damian Lillard (POR) 31 PRA. 

For those who are confident the Clippers are heading to an exit versus the reigning champs, then picking off the Clippers stars early is the way to go, especially that DeAndre Jordan can give you high 20s later this series. For me, there is no doubt they'll lose, but the Clippers' homecourt advantage is telling me to just start the pick-off in Game 2. It does not hurt to wait just 1 game.

That leaves me with the Blazers. First we have Aldridge. 46 points, 18 rebounds. That is from his first game last playoffs at Houston. Many in DTTF missed that chance and surely may pick him this time in Game 1. But, I don't think he'll get that same performance. I watched his recent game in Dallas and he doesn't look like the Aldridge I know who decimates Texas. Not at all. That foot sprain still lingers. I'll wait til he gets one good game before I pick him.

My pick goes to Lillard. Nothing special about the timing, and no tricks. Just me wanting to get 30 PRA early in Round 1.

Good luck!

55 comments:

  1. I feel like no one is giving the clippers a chance at all but I honestly believe they have the capability of beating the spurs. Yes, the spurs are proven and are the defending champs so they should be favored and given the benefit of the doubt but the clippers are a great team in their own righT. CP3 had an amazing year and is on a mission to advance and they have an athletic front line of DJ and Griffin along with a proven coach in Doc rivers, not to mention that reddick and Barnes are having a career year in terms of shooting especially reddick. Maybe I like the clippers so I am a bit biased but I feel like the people should at least give them one or two games at least before completely writing them off. Anyone agree ?

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    1. Beat me to it be a few minutes. Completely agree.

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    2. I too am a Clipper fan, but I feel the Spurs will win this.

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    3. they are a great team, that i agree. they can still win this if they can win both home games. but if spurs steal 1 at LA, ...

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  2. Thoughts so far:

    NO - GS: New Orleans made it interesting, but that's not happening again. Uncharacteristically weak FT% from top Warriors. GS will win this series easily. I picked Davis who somehow managed to get out of the game with a 43. Very happy considering what a bad game he had. Injury to Evans: I'm not picking him for game 2, as was originally the plan. This probably means I'm not picking any more Pelicans, because of traffic later in the series.

    TOR-WSH: Lowry will be very upset with himself for fouling out and missing his team's run/OT. He's a top pick for game 2. Just something to consider.

    Bucks/Bulls: What a weak game from a DTTF perspective for the Bucks. Giannis (ok, but not great) /MCW pickers can't be happy with that. They are good candidates for a bounce-back game. Pretty confident with the Bulls taking this series now.

    Mavs/Rockets: Very happy I didn't go with my gut and pick Ellis; he has better games ahead of him. Dirk was huge, don't pick him in game 2. Ellis is probably your best bet for game 2.

    My pick: Anthony Davis (43 PRA). Very happy with his performance.
    Best pick: Quincy Pondexter (35 PRA). Who would have thought?


    As for Day 2, here are the players I had shortlisted:

    Griffin: If you're going to go with a Clipper, go big. Griffin gives you a chance to hit the big PRA; but there is the risk in my mind of losing a key player who could advance. I don't think SA are a lock here.

    Lopez: Lopez is safe to be in the 20-28 range, but doesn't have the potential to go much higher than that.

    J. Johnson: Johnson usually turns it on come game 4 or 5, for one big game. Not an option yet for me.

    Thomas: Thomas is the guy I had slotted in. Has the upside to be the surprising force that gets everyone talking, a bit like Quincy Pondexter. It's a very risky pick, but for some reason I really like him here, this early. Also, half the fun is watching your guys play, and BOS-CLE is the only game I'll be home for tomorrow.

    *Not picking a Blazer. Lillard gets better the deeper a series goes, and Aldridge likely will too as Memphis' older bigs tire. And I'm not confident in the outcome of that series.

    In the end, it's between Lopez and Thomas. I nearly switched from Davis to Ellis today... I'm glad I didn't. So I'm likely going to stick it out with Isaiah.

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    1. I think Thomas is too risky & I'm playing this year with as little risk as possible at all times. So I'd recommend Lopez if you're between those two, but I'm very confident the Grizz will beat the Blazers & Aldridge gets my pick. Lillard is Mr. Clutch / elimination game. I feel like Aldridge sets the tone for the Blazers so he'll need to show up in Game 1.

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    2. nice rundown, mfari! i'm afraid for you though with thomas.

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    3. Not quite sure why everyone is so low on Thomas. On the season, he went for about 16.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 4.2 APG. Doesn't sound too risky to me. Don't look now but, surprise, the Celtics are winning!

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    4. Thomas great first half. Based on how things look so far, I may pick either he or Turner in Game 3 Boston.

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    5. Goal of the day was 30. I'm happy.

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    6. Yes you made a good call! Hard to predict. For all we know the Cavs could have run them out of the building. Thomas played great & I may pick him in their first home game. His energy alone gives him more PRA than a normal player.

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    7. Davis into Thomas puts you in a great position. Congrats!

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    8. congrats on thomas, great pick!

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  3. Happy I didn't switch off AD last night. Stinker for those on Tyreke!

    Game day 2... While I agree with the teams expected to go through, I'm not sure I want to use clippers or blazers just yet. If I was picking from them I'd go LA. Had an incredible first game last year and I feel Memphis grind will wear him down as the series goes on, esp with him banged up already!

    I'm considering my pick to be from nets and celtics; but there aren't too many great options. Isaiah could go off on one, Evan Turner has been a close triple double on a lot of reg season nights, JJ usually saves himself for a home game 3/4, but I think Brook Lopez is more consistent and should get me 20-24 points, 5-6 rebounds and 1-2 assists. I'll take his 30 PRA and reevaluate the two west series after a game.

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    1. Lopez is a good pick, Ali. Not bad at all. I guess I was too zoned in with 30-a-day. But yeah Lopez can do 30.

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    2. So I switched to LA... Can't afford for him to go crazy like his first game last year. Lopez can wait. Let's go Grizzzzzz!!

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    3. go with your gut Ali, personally I'm keeping him for the first home game because the Griz are tough in home playoff games

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    4. Yeah I've usually stick to first instincts, but both did well today. Brook won't get that many rebounds again I don't think, but if Al misses the next game, he becomes a must pick right?

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  4. I was one of those guys who picked Giannis on day 1. He had a steady output of 15PRA heading into the 2nd half, but foul trouble got the best of him early in the 3rd qtr. It was an ok performance from him since there were about 10-11% of the players pool that had a lower PRA than me.

    Day 2 will be LaMarcus Aldridge for me. The Blazers need to steal one on the road to have a fighting chance of stealing this series. Memphis are wary of the Blazers' weapons beyond the arc which could lead to one-on-one post-ups between Aldridge and Gasol. No one can stop L.A.'s turnaround mid-range jumper just like Dirk's fadeaway J's.

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    1. True. whenever he gets the ball vs the Mavs, I always feel it's going in.

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  5. Hey, a good pick for day 1. Davis came through. Probably a good thing I can't watch any of these games live, I would have freaked out before the fourth quarter. Sensational comeback by Davis.

    As for day 2, I am not sold on the Spurs advancing and will wait in that series, at least for now. So I am going with LaMarcus Aldridge. I don't want to lose him like I did last year (you know, picked for game 7 of round 1, game didn't get played, couldn't change the pick, lost 58 points all things considered with the glitch, yaddayadda). And he is one of those where I always fear for an injury. Pick him now, get it over with, wait for Lillard later in the series and cheer for the Grizzlies.

    For tomorrow I have the first of many problems. Only two games. I don't want to pick from GSW, obviously. I don't like anybody from the Pelicans, now that Davis isn't available for me anymore. The Bucks sucked. So that would leafve me with a Bull. But wait, they will advance for sure, right? So what? One of the things I learned the hard way in the last two years is, "don't be afraid to pick from a winning team every once in a while".

    So I am going to hope for a bounce-back game for Joakim Noah who won't get any healthier the longer the playoffs go on, anyway.

    Ah, feels good to share my infinite wisdom again :)
    Take everything I write with a grain of salt or two. What do I know?

    By the way, my local team in the german women's league just reached the championship series in our playoffs. Let's go, Saarlouis Royals!

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    1. nice to see you back here, Alex! more power to your Royals!

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    2. Pick MCW on Monday like I am. Best player on losing team. He'll def get over 20 & has the potential to get over 30.

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    3. if you go a bull pick Rose before he gets injured

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  6. Hi guys!!
    After some considerations I did my pick for today and I decided to go Big: LaMarcus Aldridge.
    My doubt was between him and Brook Lopez, but remembering last year's first playoff game of Aldridge and considering his injury, I don't want to risk losing his points. Furthermore, the Blazers are decimated by the injuries and Aldridge will be their main man even more. Game 1 will be crucial for them to gain some confidence, even if I don't think the Grizzlies will have lots of problems to beat them in max 5 games. I didn't consider Lillard cause he is more an elimination game player imho, and I will pick him in that moment.
    Lopez played very well after the All Star Break and had amazing numbers but the first game against Horford and the Hawks defence is going to be hard for him. I'll probably play him in game 2.
    Good luck guys!!!

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    1. so did you?? Because LA definitely delivered & Lillard played like garbage

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    2. nah. i had to stop myself from changing minds. lillard was okay at just a few PRAs short. gotta have to make up for that later on.

      now that i see LA has shaked off the rust, i like him in Texas G3 or G4

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  7. Today's most likely winning team(s): Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks

    The Celtics are devoid of talent, pretty remarkable that they even made the playoffs. All of the credit for that goes to the coach and the fact that they play in the very much weaker Eastern conference, where more teams are tanking than actually trying to win.

    Definitely want to pick from one of the guaranteed losing teams in the first round as they will be gone sooner rather than later. Although it is very tough picking a Celtic from the scrub heap.

    Going with Brandon Bass today, as it doesn't seem to matter much if he is home or away vs. the Cavs. He always seems to put up around 20 to 25 PRA. Other options seem more hit or miss. Avery Bradley seemed possible, but he also seemed more inconsistent than Bass.

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    1. Bass! Bradley! You crazy?! If any Celtics it needs to be either Turner or Thomas. All the others are far too inconsistent.

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    2. I was simply looking for the most consistent pick on the road from the Celtics squad as they will surely lose.

      Newsflash: Picking any Celtics player is risky.

      I looked at Thomas, but wanted to see a game. It isn't exactly like he is starting though, although he will most likely end up the top PRA earner from the Celtics today. Other than that choose your poison from all bad options, and hope to get lucky.

      Initially I was going to pick Evan Turner, but chickened out. Can always pick him later if needed in one of the Celtics 4 games played. Thought Turner would do better at home.

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    3. After seeing Thomas today, I'm thinking he's safer pick than I originally thought. His energy / competitive nature should ensure he's on the floor during comeback stretches & closing stretches. He's got my vote. Wish I would have picked him today!

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    4. Wish I did also, for sure. 37 PRA is a great performance out of a bench player, and easily crushed any other Celtic player by far. Evan Turner put up 24 PRA total. He might be a player to be used later. I still think he will be a better fit for a home game.

      Nothing else at all to be excited about on the Celtics (as we all expected). Brandon Bass was poor like the rest of his team, other than Isaiah Thomas.. Thought he would have been more of a rebounding factor, but he was not and only put up 13 PRA. I was hoping he would have at least got 20+ like he had done in the past.

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    5. think Thomas is a no go from now, Shump went on him and closed him down, it will be tough for him to get anywhere near 30+ again.

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  8. Absolutely killed it today picking Thomas 37pra, I knew he would come out with a bang. Thank God I stuck with him and fully got rewarded, that will be his highest pra and best pick of the day.

    Not sure others should pick him now anymore because after half time Shump went on him and shut him down bigtime, it's pretty obvious now that in the other games they'll do that from the get go giving Boston no shot in the other games, also Boston have a really good young coach very impressed with him.

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    1. Very wild, but I still think he's capable of 25-30 which is what I'll want out of him when I pick him in Game 3. It's all about the free throw line for him. He was 8/8.

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    2. he got 17 pra in the 2nd half with Shump on him, but he hit a couple 3's I was happy for him to get 30 so he did very well. But 10 ast aswell as 5reb was redic don't think he'll get that again. If your going to pick a Celtic he's the only one you should pick so hopefully he gets close to 30 for you.

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    3. 17 pra vs shumpert. heck that is still a must pick for G2.

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    4. that was with the 2 big 3's at the end though, he should be good for 20-25pra. Depends on which players you'll have left to pick instead of him.

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    5. if i didn't pick Thomas today I would have went for Jordan will be interesting how he does, honestly think Spurs will hack him most of the game so they win today.

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    6. I'm comfortable never even picking Jordan if the Clippers get eliminated in the first round. His double doubles can be as low as 20-25 PRA & with Popp's tendency to hack him, he could get put on the bench by Doc if he misses a ton / gets frustrated. Griffin pick when it's looking bleak & Paul pick on elimination day.

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  9. Just in, Al Horford dislocated his right pinky. Doubtful to return to the game. Watching closely to see if Hawks can beat Nets confidently

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    1. Wow, Horford checks back in the game with tape on his fingers. Took his first shot after the injury.... airball

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    2. if that finger bothers him in G2, i like the Lopez pick

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    3. I've got Lopez in Game 2 regardless

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  10. I had iso joe picked but changed to lala this morning, but iso joe got 17 6 6, I coulda lived with that. Hoping lala goes 20&10 min

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    1. congrats to all who picked LA. he was a monster in a losing cause

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    2. didn't have enough reason to change mind

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  11. Interesting weekend of playoff action. Was away on Saturday, but it sounds like Davis salvaged a great game at the last moment. Ellis was OK for me, 20 isn't very good but much better than the 2 that Evans would have given me, so glad I made the switch. Obviously, very happy with how Aldridge did. For the next 3 days:

    Monday: Derrick Rose is kind of tempting, but I think I'll go with a Buck. Want to stay away from Pelicans until game 3. There are 5 somewhat pickable Bucks in Giannis, MCW, Zaza, Ersan, or K. Middleton (if you're feeling somewhat royal about your pick). I think I'm going with the Greek Freak, although honestly I can see an argument that could be made for any of these guys - not much separation. Just have to hope you win the Buck lottery and move on.

    Tuesday: Already picked a Maverick and not ready to double dip just yet. Isaiah Thomas looked good in Game 1, so I like him at some point, but I expect to wait until Game 4 with my current pick plan. I'm going with Kyle Lowry here. Not sure if the Wizards will advance but that was a good way to start things off. Even if it went 7 I can't be confident enough in the Raptors, so I need Lowry now and DeRozan for later (possible the elimination game). I like Lowry while he's still healthy, and I think he'll bounce back nicely after fouling out.

    Wednesday: Already picked a Blazer, so no need to pick a second. A good time to pick Brook Lopez, so I expect I'll do just that. Still up in the air with how the Spurs vs. Clippers game 1 goes.

    It's starting to get fun now. I look forward to how things start to unfold, especially with the Clippers-Spurs series!

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    1. My buck pick is MCW. Our Lowry & Lopez picks are exactly the same. Good luck, it's getting fun!

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    2. I like the MCW pick. He kind of reminds me of Roy Hibbert in the sense that he can get you a 40, but also get you a 5. Should be an interesting ride! I feel the Greek Freak has a safer floor, but less likely to strike it huge than MCW.

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    3. Fully agree with you. If MCW had been big first game I'd be more worried. I'm looking for him to be more aggressive.

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    4. In a bounce back situation of sorts

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    5. I always love looking for the bounce back. It's a great strategy that has worked wonders for me for a long time. Both guys shot 4-13 last game, and both are candidates to bounce back. Perhaps they both will. That would be good for everyone!

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