Swept

While we ponder and figure out the series that is the Clippers-Spurs, three teams are on the verge of being swept: the Celtics, Raptors and Mavericks. And all three teams have different reasons why they may probably be eliminated today.

The Celtics, because of LeBron. I can imagine him saying to his young team, "Hey I know you guys think we can slack off in Game 4 coz we can fiinish them off in Game 5 back home. No! Let's finish them off now!"

The Raptors, because of Wizards fans. They did not take care of home court; now they have to contend not only with Pierce and his cohorts, but the whole kingdom as well.

The Mavs, because of themselves. What they have left on the floor is not what they envisioned during the season, neither before or after the Rondo trade. The absence of Parsons for me has the greater effect. Without him, Ellis and Dirk cannot do it.

As for our picks, I think we should not try to guess which of these teams get swept and then factor that in in our pick decision. See, all these three have good reasons to lose today. So just pick the best available player in these three team's pool, and go with that. Get your 30 and be happy.

I got Monta Ellis.

33 comments:

  1. Fully agree that there's no point trying to predict a game 5 in those series - mentally I think each of them are shot, and so they'll probably all lose tonight. Best player available from those teams is DDR for me.

    Don't think it's worth gambling that Spurs ease to a 4-1, and hence pick Blake/CP3. The differential between those and Ellis/Dirk/DDR is not worth the risk that the Clips don't win another. I think that series goes 6, and so there's time to pick your Clips.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are right Ali. Clips just won and the tide has again changed.

      Delete
    2. A. Battle of the Mavs: 19-11 Ellis at half, guess which one I picked? Dirk of course, this is what I get for taking the old guy instead of the (semi) young gun, out of 61 Mavs points only 4 regular points from DN
      B. With the Clippers winning, not only did they tie the series 2-2 and presumably the only series that goes to at least 6 games but the Clippers now have home court advantage back. Given my rotten luck combined with the fact that everyone including myself expects the Spurs to win the series, I got to lean with the Clippers winning and pop open the Spurs! If the Mavs win tonight, I'll take Ellis on Tuesday, if the Rockets make it sweep #4 I'll take Duncan which amazingly is the only Spur with at least 25 PAR average (he has 28), Boris Diaw is 2nd best at only 22.3!

      Delete
  2. Good Sunday guys!!!
    I'm very happy for my Lillard pick last night..I knew Memphis would have won the game, they are too strong these poor injured Blazers. I'm happy to have picked LMA when he had 47. Don't think they can do more in game 4 facing a certain elimination. JJ will be my pick on monday then.

    Tonight's pick: Blake Griffin. No way, i'm sure about it. CP3 will be my pick in the elimination game. I follow my feeling and my idea, the Spurs will win the series, and I don't want to risk losing points from Blake and CP3. For me there is no reason to wait for game 5 that could be the last one. I'm not scared on losing points from Derozan or Dirk, as i wrote yesterday.

    Great performance from the Warriors last night, but if the Pelicans will do the correct things in the upcoming years they can be really competitive. AD is gonna dominate the NBA for years. I'm curious to watch the series against Memphis, it won't be easy for Curry and co.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I might recommend Batum on Monday, since JJ will be available on Wednesday in his old stomping grounds in a possible elimination game. Batum has been playing well, and I expect that to continue.

      Delete
    2. I'll take in consideration mate!! Good advice!! I just doubt that Batum could do the same performance of yesterday but a 20/25 from him would be good as well! I consider it! Thanks!

      Delete
    3. I also have Batum penciled in... tentatively.

      Delete
    4. I had the same doubts last year about Batum after he did very well in Game 2 and 3 against San Antonio, but was forced to pick him in Game 4. The result: He outperformed those other two 30+ performances and got me a 36. Long story short: When Batum is hot, he tends to stay hot. Worth riding, since if you pick Joe Johnson and the Blazers lose, who are you going to pick from the Nets in Game 5 on Wednesday? What about the possibility of Game 6? Yikes, I don't want to think about picking 4 Brooklyn Nets this round!

      Delete
  3. I leave for a few days all gold turns to stone. Tyreke Evans (31) - I'm ok with this, but picked Evans over Giannis (39) last minute. Kyle Lowry (26) - Again, not a terrible number, but DeRozan (44) was my pick; I just didn't get the chance to change it. Dirk (46) would have been even better. Finally picked the right guy last night with Lillard (31) over Aldridge (31).

    It's fairly straightforward for me tonight. DeRozan over Nowitzki. I think Dallas has the best chance to not get swept. Don't need anyone from Boston, I rode Thomas when he was hot. Already took Monta and Lowry. It's a simple pick.

    My picks/Best picks
    1. Anthony Davis (43) / Quincy Pondexter (35)
    2. Isaiah Thomas (37) / Beno Udrih (34)
    3. Derrick Rose (31) / Tyreke Evans (33)
    4. Monta Ellis (32) / Monta Ellis (32)
    5. Brook Lopez (27) / Blake Griffin (52)
    6. Tyreke Evans (31) / Giannis Antetekounmpo (39)
    7. Kyle Lowry (26) / Dirk Nowitzki (46)
    8. Damian Lillard (31) / Anthony Davis (48)
    9. DeMar DeRozan (??)

    Total: 260 / 5'229 / 77th percentile

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would love to be in your place, Lowry's 26 is your worst PAR, I got less than half of that from him and that wasn't even my worst pick. I have 5 picks that gave me less PAR than your worst, 3 of which were <15 including Thomas going from back to back 30+ PARs to a single digit (death sentence?) PAR the day I took him. You are in great shape, keep it up, hopefully DeRozan does well for you (and the Wizards win) even though being down 0-3 is scary for a pick. BTW I think Lillard got 33 last night so he was not just a better benefit but had more PAR outright than Aldridge.

      Delete
    2. I'm not in a bad spot, that's for sure. I've just gone down from where I was 3 days ago.

      Lillard had 33, so did Aldridge. My bad.

      Delete
  4. Anthony Davis put up a nice crisp 48 PRA in an outstanding elimination effort for the now since departed New Orleans Pelicans. This series could have been prolonged slightly longer had the Pelicans not had a complete meltdown in Game #3 blowing a huge lead. The Warriors were too much for them after that and obviously wanted absolute no part of taking this series back to home court to finish things. The Warriors put an exclamation point on this series with their crushing road win to wrap things up in a 4-0 sweep, and the Pelicans are now toast.

    Anthony Davis (48 PRA) was the pick of the night from the losing teams, and Eric Gordon also put in a fine effort (37 PRA) from this same game. Nearly every other Pelican player underwhelmed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GS is such a charging train. O and D, they have it.

      Delete
  5. For today/night, I like Cleveland, the Spurs, Washington, and Dallas (playing at home) to all win. I also feel Cleveland will want to get things done today, and avoid playing another game, and Washington surely doesn't want any part of going back to Toronto. Paul Pierce has already said he doesn't want a return trip through customs, so you know he will do whatever it takes to make that happen. Dallas should win on their home court and force another game, where they will likely lose in Houston. They only lost by 2 in their last game, one they could have just as easily won, and they should play with pride today, and not get swept on their home court. Spurs look too good at home, but that series has at least another game regardless. Pick from the series that will be ending soon.

    As I said above, Washington will have the most motivation to finish things today to avoid a trip back to Toronto, which I am sure they want no part of. With that in mind, I will pick DeMar DeRozen today in his elimination game, hoping for another huge effort from him. In his last road game vs. Washington he put up an outstanding 44 PRA, and it would be awesome if he could put up another 44+ PRA effort today. DeRozen also had 31 and 32 PRA efforts in this series, so he should be at least on board for that due to his consistency, at least I hope so. If you already used DeRozen, you might try Amir Johnson, who put up 27 and 29 PRA in this series, but also put up a dud 15 PRA game. The 29 PRA game was his first start of the series though.
    I also liked Evan Turner (35 PRA in his last game) today playing @ home, but there were too many good choice to pick, at least on paper, and DeMar DeRozen for the reasons explained above seemed the best choice for me. Hopefully it works out for the best.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DeMar had 26 PRA last year in an elim vs Nets. Let's see if DeMar is pumped enough to surpass

      Delete
  6. Well this is the worst part of this game: Mavericks/Rockets and Spurs/Clippers series being on the same day all series long (granted Mavericks/Rockets will probably end today, at most end in G5 in Houston). I'm yet to take a player in either series, my worst mistake not picking Ellis or Nowitzki the night I took Lowry, I had the stupid false belief that while I believed the Rockets would win the series, it wasn't the "sure" thing that Hawks over Nets, Cavs over Celtics, Bulls over Bucks and Warriors over Pelicans are. I basically waited to see if the Mavericks would surprise in the 1st 2 games, then didn't pick a Maverick in G3 since I took DeRozen that night. While it's true if I had taken DeRozan in G2 I would have gotten 13 less PAR (31 instead of 44) from him but would have seen Lowry suck twice in a row and taken Nowitzki or Ellis the night I had DeRozan and taken the other Maverick today. Since the game is about cumulative PAR points and not an individual PAR pick, DeRozan's G2+Ellis or Nowitzki's G3 would have been a combined 76 or 77 as oppossed to a combined 56 from Lowry G2/DeRozan G3, not because of DeRozan but Lowry's 12, a net difference of 20 or 21. Regrets may suck but luck hasn't been on my side, Thomas and Evans disapearing from back to back 30 PARs each to land on 8 and 14 respectively is unforgivable and a single digit PAR sounds like a death sentance to any chances of doing well, but I hope that isn't the case.

    ReplyDelete
  7. For me, the decision is very straightforward. I've picked Lowry, Ellis, and Nowitzki, which leaves DeMar DeRozan as the clear pick. Good chance I lose Chris Paul since the Spurs can easily take the next two games, but it's a chance I'm willing to take in hopes it goes at least 6 games. DeRozan in all likelihood does not make it to another game.

    Tomorrow is another fairly straightforward decision with Damian Lillard, although it's tempting to go Batum. Lillard is one of my favourite players, so picking him seems like an easy call.

    This round has been very strange, and my picks have turned out very Jekyl and Hyde - some amazing performances by Aldridge and Dirk, now absolute clunkers from Lowry and Evans, and a lot of in between from everybody else. That being said, in spite of the performances this so far has been the easiest first round in a while. Seems very likely most of us have a full slate of players available for the second round, and that's where things will get very interesting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Clips series is now tied. Good job not picking a Clipper

      Delete
  8. Having trouble deciding between Derozan and Dirk. Already used monta so its down to these two. Dirk might not have that great of a game but he gets boards regardless while demar might flop completely. Its risky hmm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Either one can work fine. I'd pick based on a) which player you like more (for whatever reason) and b) which game you plan on watching. It's more fun (or frustrating depending on the night) to watch your guy play. One advantage to picking Dirk is that if the Raptors do survive then you can easily pick DDR on Wednesday, while Dirk is trapped on Clippers-Spurs day to the end. One advantage to picking DDR is that Dirk is more likely to make it to Game 5 and if the Clippers tie it at 2-2, you can wait that out one more day with Dirk if you wish. Either way, make your choice and have fun with it.

      Delete
    2. I'd pick Dirk over DeMar just for today coz the former is more motivated (been for years in elim games)

      Delete
  9. Isaiah Thomas 37, 30, 35 when I don't pick him, 8 when I did, improbable brutal luck!

    ReplyDelete
  10. The Celtics were eliminated as expected. Isaiah Thomas (35 PRA) and Jared Sullinger (32 PRA) were the best picks from the losing team here. Sullinger was a huge surprise as he did next to nothing in the other games. Thomas was had three great games in this series over 30+ PRA, and one huge dud. Evan Turner (only 7 hideous PRA) was horrendous in this game after two 24 PRA games on the road, and a 35 PRA game at home. The magic ran out for Turner today. Condolences to anyone who picked him. Real glad I avoided that landmine.

    The trick to this game is nailing the player on his great game(s) and trying to avoid the dud game(s). Something I am NOT really good at for the most part it seems. For some players you only get one bite at the apple to get his best game, with the rest being disasters. Other players are far more consistent and reliable (Anthony Davis for example). Then there are the Quincy Pondexters who will fire up a 35 PRA game, never to be heard from again, or an Evan Turner or Thaddeus Young who will fire decent games (25+ at least) every game they play, until you actually decide to pick them. The latter is the absolutely most frustrating part of this game. Getting a horrible performance from the player you pick, then watching his next game or the one prior, and seeing that player light it up. Totally Frustrating and infuriating!

    Can't believe the Spurs lost @ home. That is now a series where anyone can win again now tied 2-2, with both teams punting a home game. Tough to call best players from the losing team in that game today, as at this point, don't really know who will be moving on to the next round.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. better to wait now on winner of Game 5. Then Kawhi or a Clip G6

      Delete
  11. The Clips won!! Great performance for them, this series is really the best one of the 1st round. 2 amazing teams! Everything is up in the air now, I think the Spurs are still favourite (i could be wrong but the clippers are often unreliable at this point) but they could need an effort bigger than the expected.

    46 by Blake is what I was waiting for. I don't care if they won, I keep on considering them as the loser team of this series and I needed a major risk in my situation.

    Damn DTTF is really strange sometimes. Isaiah Thomas had 3 30+ PRA games and guess when did I pick him? Lol, no answer needed ahah thank you Isaiah for your 8 PRA!

    Cheers guys! Good luck with your picks!

    ReplyDelete
  12. It's starting to go south. About time. I finally picked a Buck, they even won, but Antetokompou (is that correct?) only got me a 20. Still, he was better than MCW and Middleton who could have been my other choice. Still the best of the bad. But not good.

    For tonight I have DeRozan, switched for Dirk. Maybe that helps Dirk put another good one in so he can play another day. Might be an easier pick than a Clip or a Spur. Stupid series, that one :)

    My Royals lost a heartbreaker at home in overtime. Undeserved, they had to play 5 against 7 in the first half, in the end they blew a five-point lead with 3 minutes to go. So the big team remains unbeaten. Undeserved. Imagine the 96 Chicago Bulls taking part in the NCAA tournament and then getting help from the referees.
    I may be pushing it, but that's what it felt like. Sigh.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stupid series indeed.
      G0, spurs will win series
      G1, clips "
      G2, spurs "
      G3, spurs "
      G4, clips "
      G5 should be the telltale

      Delete
  13. Sigh this week has been off to a brutal start.
    Yesterday picked tyreke - 14
    Today picked derozan - 22
    Brutal
    This coming off last week where I ended it with
    Joe johnson- 33
    brow- 47
    monta- 45

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous, use Name/URL instead. There are at least two of you here :)

      As long as you average above 30 in first round, you'll be alright.

      Delete
    2. My bad, from here on out, Kaboom is my name

      Delete