Not Avoiding The Hot Pick

The Raptors let Game 1 go and gave away homecourt advantage to the Wizards. Suddenly DeMar Derozan is a hot pick (19%) and I don't blame those who are picking him. For the Raptors to get back in this series, they have to steal one back at Wizard's turf. Come to think of it, that's not entirely impossible. And they still own Game 7. I still think it's too early to write off the Raptors. There is still time to pick Derozan and Kyle Lowry later if it does go awry.

As for the Rockets series, 1-0 means little. 1-1 or 2-0 does. The Rockets were themselves and the Mavs were not, but Game 2 can tell us if this is a series or not. I am seeing flashes of Playoff Rondo, so there is still hope. We can revisit this matchup in Game 3.

Meanwhile, Isaiah Thomas carved Game 1 for 37 PRA. I have to say he went under my radar and maybe most of you too, except maybe those 7% who follows him. It seems that Thomas has been tearing it up after the All-Star weekend, and I wished I have known that piece of info going into Game 1. That tells us the importance of research in this game. A quick Google could have shown me that.

Avoiding the hot pick is one of the strategies in this game. This is something I employ in the later rounds, and even then I don't do it just for the sake of being different. There has to be a good reason to do so -- a good alternative.

This time I have no better alternative for Isaiah Thomas. He gets my pick.

It doesn't hurt to flow with the wave in Round 1.

33 comments:

  1. Agree about the hot pick. Unless your sole purpose is to avoid the hot pick, it's not relevant early in the game. Isaiah Thomas is one of those guys that flies under the radar because he comes off the bench. At first, I was looking at picking Evan Turner at some point, but when doing the research Thomas was the guy who stuck out as the best possible pick.

    Here's another strategy I like to use, that is the reason for my pick tonight. It's trying to pick one guy from each and every team you think will lose early and waiting on the second. If you leave too many guys for the elimination games, you might run out of time. For me, I've already picked Ellis, Aldridge, and Greek Freak, and will be picking Lowry, Lopez, and Davis. That's one player from 6 different teams. That leaves just two series untouched - the Celtics (where I'll pick Thomas around Game 4) and the Spurs/Clippers (which I'll pick from at the earliest Game 4), and only leaves a few must picks in Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan/John Wall, Dirk Nowitzki (who might get the nod in Game 3), and Damian Lillard. That's not a lot of players to slot, so picking Lowry, for me, guarantees I can wait for Game 5/6 to pick either DeRozan or Wall, depending on who's facing elimination. Don't mind losing Lowry if the Raptors move on. Losing one guy from a team that advances to Round 2 won't be as killer this year, since there is a ton of depth on teams like Toronto, Chicago, Houston, etc. to use in Round 2. I think with tonight being a home game, it's a great time to pick a motivated Kyle Lowry. That being said, Isaiah Thomas is also great pick to make, so best of luck with it! For me, since Isaiah Thomas is the only Celtic who I plan to pick, I don't feel a rush to do it. I'll wait for an appropriate home game.

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    1. I 100% agree with Tangent. Lowry for me today (on his home floor) & Thomas eventually (on his home floor). Why pick him today when he's on the road? To me, Toronto's loss has positioned a quality home court pick for a guy that absolutely has to tear it up tonight. (Lowry)

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    2. I'm picking Lowry tonight, Lopez tomorrow and Thomas on Thursday and stopping that fade the highest % in the 1st round, as that put me 22 behind the other day when LA got 47 to DL getting 25.

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    3. Lowry has 3 fouls and is out until the 2nd half with ONLY FIVE PAR with 2 fouls in 11 seconds early in the 2nd quarter. Hoping A he doesn't commit a foul in the 3rd quarter and B the Wizards pull away while he takes up the bulk of what the Raptors do.

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    4. 4 fouls only 9 PAR late 3rd quarter, I really want to curse like crazy! At least the Wizards are rolling!

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  2. Review:

    CHI-MIL: What a dud. Unless you picked Khris Middleton, you are better off not having picked from this game. Even then, I'm not happy with less than 30, so Middleton still wasn't quite good enough for me here. I might just try to avoid this series altogether. Then again, there's still a chance that GF or MCW lights it up at home.

    NO/GS: These games are much more entertaining than I expected them to be. Pick of the night ends up being... the guy I originally planned on taking who wasn't supposed to play. Not only is he the pick of the night, but he's the *only* pick that would have made me happy. This was an ok night to pick a dud, because everyone else did too.

    My pick: Derrick Rose (31). I'm OK with losing a Bull so quickly because of the depth on the team and on a lot of the contenders this year. Wanted to keep the run of 30 PRAs and managed... just. Though I was hoping for a bit more from Rose.
    Pick of the night: Tyreke Evans (33)


    Options for tonight:

    Kyle Lowry (8%) / DeMar DeRozan (19%): Had a bad shooting game AND fouled out of game one. This is the heart and soul of the Raptors; this man cares so much about winning and being a leader. He is going to bounce back big time after missing out on overtime. He's a very safe pick, in my opinion, and there's no way anyone should pick DDR over him tonight. (I still think DeRozan has a good game, but Lowry has serious triple double potential tonight. When he's on, he's on.)

    Dirk Nowitzki (13%) / Monta Ellis (7%): Nowitzki had a big game one, I'd expect the Rockets to adjust. I had predicted a big game 1 for Ellis, it didn't happen as he struggled with his shot. Still, though he showed the ability to get by Harden and Terry and the Rockets don't have anyone else at the moment. Between the two, today's a Monta kind of day.

    Isaiah Thomas (22%) / Evan Turner (3%): If I had to pick one of the two, I'm picking Turner. But that's only because I've already picked Thomas and he's unavailable. I do, however, think that Blatt makes the adjustment and Thomas will have a harder time tonight. He's been under a lot of people's radars, but he scared the Cavs enough to make them take notice. I think he's good for 25PRA regardless if only because of his ability to pass the ball and get to the line, but I'm really not sure what to expect from him tonight.

    My pick: Monta Ellis. I think Lowry has a bigger game, but I have a) more hope in the Raptors than the Mavs and b) more backup options (After DDR, I'd pick Dirk, Chandler, Parsons and Rondo before any other Raptor).

    My progress/Best Picks:
    1: Anthony Davis (43) / Quincy Pondexter (35)
    2: Isaiah Thomas (37) / Beno Udrih (34)
    3: Derrick Rose (31) / Tyreke Evans (33)

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    1. Agreed about Ellis. I thought he'd have a big game 1, but all signs point to a big game 2 after being just OK in game 1. That should work well. Also worth considering is Chandler Parsons. I'm sure he's motivated to show while in Houston that the Rockets made a big mistake in not matching the offer sheet. I think he goes off in a big way at some point in the series, it's just a question of when it will be.

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    2. I'm gonna get Ellis in a home game. He's my nemesis in DTTF so I pray he'll at least rock me 25 at home.

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    3. If he's your nemesis and you're waiting for a home game, I'm definitely picking him tonight ;)

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    4. glad you listened to my advice in picking rose it's a smart choice and 31 was good enough for you, he isn't the same player anymore and could get injured soon. I'll be picking him soon aswell. Right now I have Ellis because I used DeRozan and Lowry will bounce back but I can't pick him yet not until game 4-5. Wizards could choke like in the Pacer series. Dirk had a big game don't he'll do that again and with Parson struggling with injury Ellis has to step up.

      Ellis locked in but still researching

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  3. Taong, you are not picking Mavs because you are a fan right? But who would you suggest from them for some1 who wants to pick from them?

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    1. Ellis has the biggest upside in my opinion, but all are somewhat risky. I see no scenario where Ellis shouldn't be picked first to be honest, unless Rondo turns it on big time.

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    2. Ellis for a bounceback if you waNt to risk.
      Dirk for consistency If you want 30.
      Tyson if you want 25

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    3. And even if I am not a fan, just too early. If I am holding on Raptors who lost at home, moreso with Mavs who lost on the road.

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    4. Taong I know your a fan but don't think Mavs can beat this Houston, Harden/Howard Combo is better than Mavs, Ariza is an upgrade over Parsons, Smith/Jones/Brewer do their role well. If Beverley was fit no shot but since he isn't Mavs may have a slight chance but I honestly see most of the games being 9-10pt wins for Houston. Harden with Dwight makes if difficult don't think you guys even managed to beat them once without Dwight during the regular season of course sometimes that doesn't matter. In short don't let blind faith get in the way.

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    5. Stive, it's not as if it's the end if I don't pick a Mav in Day 4. The Mavs don't have consistent 30-PRA guys coz they spread it, and you have to agree Isaiah is better at this point in time. Don't worry about me. You just have to look at the archives I always picked my guys when it's time. It's faith but it is not blind... blind faith is just two words ;)

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    6. do think Ellis will be the guy to step up or do you think he's safer at home ?

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    7. home-away strategy doesn't work with Ellis. doesn't matter where. his stats fluctuate anywhere.

      but i believe he will bounce back and be more aggressive attacking in G2

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  4. I agree with all of u guys, in particular with Tangent. As I already planned, Lowry gets my pick for tonight. I keep considering the Raptors out after the 1st round, I could be wrong but this was my view before game 1, and after game 1 loss even more. I'll play Thomas at home, tonight will be an harder game for him with Blatt's adjustments.
    Let's go Kyle!!

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    1. I agree, don't expect him to get into 30's they'll shut him down now because he's their only threat and Shump will be on him like a leach

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  5. Okay, I am still on a rank with only three digits, so Noah was not too bad. 19 rebounds helped him to a 30, goal achieved. Could have scored a little more, but I don't want to complain. Best start in a DTTF campaign for me ever.

    Tonight it's Kyle Lowry. He SHOULD go off like nobody's business. Hope for the best.

    Still have Joe Johnson slotted for tomorrow. Just try and talk me out of it :)

    How about the experts, though? Ernie Johnson had a whopping 0 on day one, then suddenly 71 after day 2. He somehow managed to squeeze John Wall in. They probably said "you have to pick a winner if you want to pick afterwards". So now he picked Davis on day 3 and he is golden. Why they go to all that trouble only to bow out in the middle of the conference finals I really don't understand.

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    1. Yeah, remind me, what's the best theory again as to why they bow out? I've seen them get "no picks" a number of times in the past and their pick gets filled in later. I think they're at least required to tell someone their pick because they don't usually swap in a preferable player after the fact.

      And LOWRY, wow I'm so upset with him as I'm sure you are also here in the 2nd quarter

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    2. [a small wave of my hand]
      You don't need to pick Joe Johnson.
      He is not the pick you're looking for.

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  6. I've decided to pick Ellis, no one else really stands out since I picked Isaiah already and DeRozan. They'll need him more especially with the injury concerns to some of his team mates today and I hope he attacks more.

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  7. Rotating my picks from IT2, Turner, DeRozan or a Maverick but opted to go to my "safest" route in Turner. IT2 won't replicate his G1 performance, especially now that the Cavs watched Shumpert slow him down. Agreeing with Taong that the Raps/Wiz series is still too close to call. Upside is that I can further analyze that series and get a better pick later on. Downside is that I may not have the opportunity to pick guys like Lowry, DeRozan, Wall or Beal.

    I am picking a Net tomorrow. Horford is iffy so Lopez is a smart pick. However, If Horford is out, Antic starts. We all know that Lopez can't defend outside the paint and it would be a challenge for him physically to camp out the lane. So, I am mulling between JJ, D-Will or Lopez (assuming Horford plays with an injury)

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    1. Good point re: Antic's effect. I think Horford still plays

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  8. Wow lowry, u stupid idiot. Picks up two quick fouls in less than 30seconds. Now he has three and out for the half.

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    1. I agree, what a disappointment. Two games in a row massive foul trouble. Really!?!?

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    2. He needs to know that reaching in like that on his last foul was real stupid, yes it was a bs call but u don't put yourself in that position and now the raptors r trailing without him

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  9. Well, right idea, but unfortunate result. Lowry just never got going. That being said, I'd do the same thing again the next time. Tough to predict that the entire Raptors team would lay an egg like this at home. All you can do is dust yourself off and not get too discouraged. Pick Lowry in game 3. He can't do much worse. I might go DeRozan, we shall see.

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    1. "Where is Lowry, I don't see him!"... Has anyone seen Lowry? Anyone? Nope... I checked the boxscore, which says he has 6Pts4Asts2Rebs (12 PAR) but I never saw him so he was invisible to me!

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  10. He got injured. So I think he could be out the rest of the series.

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