Sweep. Not.

I want a sweep. But there will never be a sweep in the Finals this year.

Standing at rank 56 and only Splitter, Allen, Chalmers and Green remaining in my pool, I want a sweep. With the Big Threes from the Spurs and Heat being popular picks in the next three games, I am sure to lose ground now against the people around me. Assuming a Big Three average PRA of 30 and my picks' average of 15, that is a dropoff of 45 PRA just for the next three games. That lines up with about 98 percentile, which is what I got last year (I said I wanted 99 this year). Now, if series stretches to 7 games, that's another dropoff of 40 to 50 PRA and that lines up at about 93 percentile. That is why I want a sweep.

But there will never be a sweep. Game 1 showed us a lot of things that make this series even more unpredictable and thus may go 7 games. Noone will know what would have happened if LeBron James did not have cramps and had to sit the better part of the fourth quarter. Noone will know what would have happened if the Spurs didn't have 20 turnovers in the first three quarters (which almost always spells a loss as Ginobilo mentioned). The Heat seems unfazed by the Spurs home crowd, and that may be vice versa when they go to Miami. Game 2 is up for grabs, and the rest of the games too. I am still sticking to my prediction of Spurs in 5, but I will not be surprised if this goes 7.

As for my pick, nothing fancy here, just following the pick plan (revised pick plan). Tiago Splitter in Game 2.


By the way, if you still have Tony Parker, pick him now in Game 2. Game 1 showed he can still play through his injured ankle. Ignore that he is the hottest pick; that doesn't matter. Don't get the illusion that his ankle gets better with each and every game.

Good luck!



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41 comments:

  1. Danny Green for game 2 or game 5?

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    1. Ricky, if you don't have any better Spurs or Bosh available, pick Green in Game 2. Otherwise, Game 5.

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  2. Just for the heck of what happened in game 1 with the AC going out, while that because their was a malfunction, it's now known how it affects LBJ, the Spurs could keep it off in the rest of their home games and assure victories. Because San Antonio has home court advantage, they can guarantee that the Championship is theirs.

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    1. If we take away all the minutes and points when LBJ was out, Spurs is still ahead in points. It would have been neck-to-neck, but Spurs deserve that W. We may put an asterisk on that, but still it's a W.

      However, Heat can still win this if they play consistent D on Spurs perimeter shooters. 50+ FG% in Game 1 was ridiculous.

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    2. I'm not saying SA didn't deserve that win but having witnessed how it effected LBJ, the Spurs may know that this is a golden chance to make their home court, home oven advantage! Can the Heat take the Heat (Heat against Heat lol!) and play D in an oven atmosphere if the Spurs were to do that? I'm not saying they will but after witnessing that it must be tempting at the least.

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    3. Ah sorry that was not a rebuttal. Was just saying what was in my head beforehand. You're cool

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  3. Been reading all season and been using your advice for the most part. I currently sit at 96% and first place in my private league nursing a 60pt lead. What do you think of my planned picks? Thinking Splitter tonight while he's still relevant...

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    1. Splitter
      Wade
      Bosh
      Green
      Chalmers/Birdman
      That's basically all I have left

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    2. Hmm you have an abundance of San Antonio homecourters (includes Bosh). I would have put Bosh in Game 2, but Splitter 's near-20 PRA may only be attainable early in the series.

      Hmm.. Okay, Splitter in Game 2, but put Bosh in Game 5. Chalmers in Game 4.

      With Green, watch him closely coz we may never know when he'll let it pour, but it most likely will happen at home. Hope that helps.

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    3. I'm not convinced that Tiago Splitter is only going to be doing well early in the series. That's only based on last series against the Thunder, when he played limited minutes based on the matchup of Serge Ibaka forcing Popovich to do things differently. I'd pick Bosh in Game 2, and then Splitter in Game 3, Wade in Game 4, and Green in Game 5. The only time I think Splitter sees the bench is in an elimination game.

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    4. Was also basing from last year's debacle. Splitter had limited minutes when Heat went small later in the series.

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    5. Ah I forgot about that. Pick Splitter early then. I think this year will be different for Splitter but it is definitely smart to get him while you can.

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  4. LeBron, Green, or Bosh for game 3. I'm leaning towards Bosh

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    1. If Spurs win G2, LeBron G3.
      If Heat win G2, Bosh G3.

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  5. I forgot I had Manu! I think I'm taking him at home

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  6. Was going to use Wade today but have gone with Leonard instead.

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  7. Smart. After his terrible performance he will be looking to bounce back

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  8. Tony Parker survived Game #1, put up 27 PRA, and came out of it in good order seemingly suffering no ill effects from his injuries and lasting the entire game. So I am far more confident to play him now in Game #2 @home. Hoping he can better the 27 PRA he had in his last game vs. the Heat, or his 29 PRA high from the last series vs. OKC. His high for the 2014 playoffs so far is 45 PRA, which I am sure he won't get near again, but if he could somehow reach the 30+ PRA plateau, I would very happily take that.

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  9. Those into World Cup
    http://en.mcdonalds.fantasy.fifa.com/leagues/219

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  10. I took LBJ tonight... He was cold at like 9%
    ...
    Did not want to wait and take him later when 'everyone' would be, adn all I could do is tie them.... Go big for me tonight LeBRON !!
    ...Also....
    Hoping to do better than the majority :)
    ...
    Go Spurs !!

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    1. 48pra(his second highest),
      ...........Only 9 lower than his highest of 57
      14 more than the second highest tonight
      ...
      I'll take it

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    2. Nice pick, taking LeBron on the comeback from his shortened cramp game. Although I bet you were a little worried after the 2 points he scored in quarter #1, before James ignited in quarter #2 and beyond.

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    3. btw, I'm currently playing in espn's MLB weekly challenge, and yahoo.com's NASCAR fantasy game and their gold best ball challenge. I'm signed up to play ESPN's world cup bracket, and will be looking to join the one Taong pointed out above. I used to play the streak for cash everyday and did not do any good at all lol

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    4. That should be espn's Best Ball Challenge(golf)

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  11. Spurs are all finished. Can't lose home games. If it wasn't for LeBron getting a cramp in Game #1 they might have even lost that game, and Miami isn't even a great road team, a little over .500 during the regular season. Now the Spurs go to Miami to probably lose 2 more times.

    Taong looks like you are going to get your wish. Short series. This could potentially be done in 5 games, although I see 6 being the most likely number, at this point. Unless the Spurs step up and win a game in Miami, and Miami is a very good home team. So that will be difficult.

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    1. I'm not counting out the Spurs. They can win in any arena. Miami has a great chance to go up 3-1, but I think the Spurs steal game 4 and make this very interesting.

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    2. well my wish was 4 games lol.

      now with an early split game, this can't go 5. neither can win 3 straight from now on.

      probably 6 now. argh!

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    3. Getting a sweep in the later rounds of the playoffs and especially the finals is extremely unrealistic.

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  12. I'm trying to decide between Tiago Splitter and Birdman for Game 3. Leaning Birdman, but might go back to Tiago. Preparing for a run of Diaw, James, Allen and Green in the final four games. In other words, I'm getting ready for seven games with either Green or Allen in Game 7. Thoughts?

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    1. tiago is no longer an option now. the tiago picked has passed. we saw heat not reverting to 2 bigs, and how tiago had limited minutes while heat play 4 perimeter guys.

      birdman, save for later coz you may never have to pick him.

      i see you have other options, i suggest allen. then go from there.

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    2. True, but the dropoff from Green and Allen to Birdman is not substantial. Birdman can produce, especially on his floor in Miami. He's received quality minutes and got a 12 PRA, both of which can be built on. I'd be OK if it went 6 and I picked Birdman but not Danny Green. I'm also considering Allen now, but I kind of like him for a bigger game like Game 6 or 7. Splitter is out of the running.

      Tentative pick: Birdman. Anything in the double digits is a victory, perhaps I can hit the jackpot!

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    3. Change of plans again: Ray Allen. I'll pick whoever I've got left in Game 7 when the time comes.

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  13. manu+tiago=45
    tiago+manu=43
    ok i'll take that.
    now, moving on. allen vs chalmers. leaning on allen g3, chalmers g4

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    1. Either order. These guys are not predictable. Pick and pray time.

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  14. And what do you think about these players for game 3:
    - Lebron or Diaw? I have also Splitter but it's not a good option regarding yours opinions above.

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    1. Hey Karol. You can pick Diaw. Spoelstra seems to be sticking with Lewis, and thus Spurs need to give more minutes to Diaw instead of Splitter. Plus Diaw is reliable on road too.

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  15. Pick plans ahead:

    G3: Duncan
    G4: Lebron
    G5: Green

    If this goes to 6 or 7 might pick Birdman, Lewis, Cole or Mills. Can't believe Coach Pop did not played Splitter more ugh!

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    1. Heat going small, they'll just lure Splitter out of paint, thus neutralizing his strengths. That's why Splitter has decreased value in DTTF from hereon.

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