Six Game Sixes

I had to review my Thursday's pick. I tried game theory by expanding on my case scenarios given my available players and probabilities of each team winning Game 6 and 7. To make the matrix simple, I eliminated the Warriors and the Clippers, because (1) I strongly believe the Clippers of all twelve teams will advance at this point, and (2) I already picked Stephen Curry. Here is how it looks...



The ones encircled are, for me, the Pacers' and Thunder's probability of winning Game 6. Indicated in the rows that follow are all the case scenarios. For Game 7, I had fixed it so that the pick comes from the best remaining of the visiting team. In this setting, it tells me I have to pick Kevin Durant (see highlighted cell).

I played around with the probabilities of winning, from 10% to 90% range for each team, but keeping the Thunder ahead of the Pacers in the percentage. I found out that the Thunder has to be ahead of the Pacers by +50% for this table to show that the better pick is Lance Stephenson. Anything below it (e.g. 10% vs 60%), it shows Kevin Durant.

The major factor here is Durant's PRA. That 40+ PRA is so much more than Stephenson's 25- PRA. It's a case of pick now, pay later.

For those who still have Paul George, I plugged him here and the value of picking a Pacer increased. The change is due to George's PRA of 39 which is much more than Stephenson's. So if you still have George, I recommend picking him over Durant.

For Fridays pick, walking the plank of elimination are the Nets, Mavs and Rockets (again), all playing at home. The top two players in each team are:
  • Joe Johnson (26 PRA)
  • Deron Williams (25)
  • Monta Ellis (26)
  • Dirk Nowitzki (24)
  • Dwight Howard (43)
  • James Harden (38)
If you still have Howard or Harden, pick a Rocket. If not, then your next option is Chandler Parsons's 28 PRA which is not an automatic pick when placed beside Nowitzki's and Ellis' PRA. Nowitzki finally got hot the last game and should be the same in an elimination game. Ellis, on the other hand, has been consistent since Game 2. With the Nets, you can never know as their PRAs fluctuate with each and every game, so might as well not risk that.

So again, if you have Howard or Harden, go pick them.

If not, pick among the Rockets and Mavs the team that you think will most likely lose in Game 6. And then choose Parsons or Nowitzki accordingly. If you cannot decide who'll win, then pick Nowitzki, so that you'll have Ellis or Parsons on Game 7 if necessary.

Here are my picks. A past MVP. And a near future MVP.


Doesn't get any colder than this.

36 comments:

  1. Welcome to the Cold side my friend :)

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    1. I cannot believe he's only 2% picked. I have him also, then Ellis, then George, then Aldridge. Ultimately so many people have Paul George and I really think the Pacers would like to avoid the embarrassment of losing this series so my money is on them winning. If not, I'm okay with having never picked a pacer, I mean even though George's numbers are good, they've been such a disaster it just makes me angry

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  2. I must admit...
    .....................All these games sixes are INCREDIBLE !!!

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  3. Good analysis, thanks. I'm going with the Westbrook-Nowitzki combo.

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    1. If the Rockets win game 6, are you still going Parsons game 7? I'll probably roll with L.A. if that's the case.

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    2. If rockets win n mavs lose, yes.
      Otherwise, Ellis.

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  4. Chandler Parsons outscoring James Harden, I'll take that! For Friday, I've already picked 3 Rockets and Dirk, so for me the choice is Monta Ellis. I'm going to pass on the Nets for now. Ive also decided on most of my game 7 picks, if necessary. In order of priority:

    Saturday: Marc Gasol, David Lee / Klay Thompson, Jeff Teague
    Sunday: LaMarcus Aldridge, Deron Williams, Maverick (unsure who)

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  5. Yeah, that was nice for you my friend...
    ....Waiting all this time and I use Harden and get a 27.... WOW :(
    I haven't used Jeff Teague, or Deron Williams and no MAV or SAS
    ....Good luck..

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    1. 27 from Harden? I envy you, I got 25 from him in game 2 ;)

      Parsons missed the 30 PRA-plateau, but at least he was at his average.

      For tonight it still is Paul George. After that I don´t have any Maverick (Ellis picked in game 1, oops, and Dirk in game 4) or Rocket left (Harden in game 2, Howard in game 3, Parsons in game 5), so it´s Joe Johnson. Was considering Pierce for he is the Playoff veteran, but his numbers are just too low. So a good game from Joe Johnson and a win for Amir Johnson would be nice.

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  6. I just hope all will be done o Friday...

    My picks are George (today) and Nowitzki (Friday)... I won't pick a Maverick, but i'm not confident on any Nets and i think Dirk's PRA will be better then Parsons'.

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    1. I hope the Thursday group ends, but the Friday group extend (go Mavs!). :D

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  7. 31 Noah and 38 Howard past 2 picks which is all you ask for.

    Anyway too many series going 6-7 and there's too many players that get good pra that we'll miss out on anyway so i think i'll gamble big time the next 3 days, if I lose so be it, there's actually plenty of players to pick even if I go without grizz next round etc (example).

    I'm going with Millsap today because i think pacers can still win this and i can see them fighting and produce their best defensive effort all series today, then they return home and win and then i'll have used both main hawks and no pacers.

    Grizz and Thunder series is frustrating I'm not going to lie but I had grizz favourites before the series started and they just match up well against thunder. the problem is I let the crowd sway me and practically picked thunder by default. now I've used 2 grizz. I'm hoping kd and westbrook can pull off a win and then win game 7 if not so be it if I miss out on thunders big 2. This will lead me to have both thunder players if they get through then I can have conley for Saturdays game 7 or next series if it doesn't workout.

    Tomorrow I'll be going Dirk having used ellis already and pray nets win, so then I can use lowry game 7 on Sunday. you don't really need to pick any nets there just more options since they don't have a consistent pra performer.

    so in short...Millsap/Dirk/Conley/Lowry next 4 picks if everything works out for me if not I'll change them to what way the games go.

    this will mean I would miss out on picking thompson, iggy, parsons, valanciunas who all produce good pra but impossible to pick because there's not enough games with all the congestion. If it doesn't workout I miss out on all pacers and thunder and depending if blazers and clippers fail to advance.

    go hard or go home ....

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    1. I think the majority of DTTF will lose players, so it will still be even field come Semis.

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  8. I applaud you with the analytics, and I am with you on this one. I know that OKC will win Game 7 and those who still have George should've picked him today. As for tomorrow, It will be between Monta and Deron. Both players are superb at home and with an elimination game coming, I know they will be on their A-Game.

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  9. I agree THCH... Awesome analytics ...
    ....and I've made my choice.
    I had hoped that OKC was going to go through so I hadn't picked any of their players and slowly started picking MEM players. Gasol sat/26 and Randolph tue/29... I was going to go with Conley tonight, again holding to my guns that OKC will pull through...
    ...That has changed... I'm going with Kevin Durant !!!
    Yes I like to go cold, but this is not the only reason... Of course you all know I'm a big OKC fan. Well, I just can NOT go into this game rooting for Conley to get me a huge PRA when I need to be putting all my energy into rooting for MY team...
    .... My conscience has been bothering me all day...
    So KD it is.... !!!!
    ..........................Thunder UP!!!
    ..btw(I've already used Paul George, curry, thompson)

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    1. For you Mr. OKC it's a win-win. If OKC wins, yay! If OKC loses, yay PRA!

      But I'm betting you'll trade the PRA for the win any day of the week.

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    2. Yeah...you are correct my friend..I'd trade .. :)

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  10. If the 2% of us who have KD can end up with a higher PRA than the 42% who have Paul George.. THAT would be so awesome!!!

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  11. I hope ALL these series go to a game 7...
    .....So that all my opponents HAVE to use MORE of the players they DON"T want to use.... lol

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  12. Remember when home teams actually won their games. Those were the days (actually in every other year but this one). What a nightmare!

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  13. I know right.... On top of this first round being so good and close .. it has made this contest THAT much more interesting.... :/

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  14. 48. Not bad. But could be higher. I guess it's Hawk vs Grizzly on Sat's pick.

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    1. The one guy I have left for MEM was Conley and he got hurt... will know more later... but again, can I root for him in a game 7 for a high pra against okc..... NO! lol... I will pick elsewhere....

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  15. Thunder UP !!!
    ..................... 48pra(more than likely the highest for the day)
    Not bad at all for the 2% of us who had him...
    ....Knocking down the 42% of the field who had PG was great...that will for sure move us up....
    ....

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    1. Unless of course if they get 48 from KD in the Finals.

      (Like that last word?)

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    2. I've got Paul George in Game 7. If the Pacers want to redeem themselves fully he'll have to go big and be a star. The series is so hard to predict, the Hawks could easily win so I figure since I've picked no Pacers George is my man. If they advance, I've still got other Pacers and hopefully they pick up the "pace" & Hibbert finds himself a part of a series at some point to give us an extra guy.

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    3. I'm guessing the majority of those 42% who had PG tonight have already used KD... (could be) :)

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  16. I'm thinking Lance Stephenson for me Sat. night...

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    1. Well, not sure.... I have him and David West and all my ATL players... and all my LAC players...

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    2. Maybe go Paul Millsap. You've picked Paul George, might be a good idea to get Millsap, who will do well and won't hurt you even if Atlanta wins.

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