Ripped City

I know some of you were ripped too. The last three days of DTTF have not been kind to us. We've been spoiled with 30+ PRAs in the previous round and here we are getting peanuts of 15, 20, 25 PRA. Low-scoring games, slowed-down pace, defense-oriented basketball and blown-up games have all contributed to our perceived falldown.

I said perceived falldown because most of us didn't really fall too far. Notice how you had two-straight duds, and still only lost a few percentiles only? If these were normal circumstances, you'll fall a full 10 percentile. But see, most got low PRAs these past few days anyway. The only ones who stole your percentile are the few who soared up because of lucky picks.

Persistence, persistence.

Moving on for our Saturday pick, both teams Nets and Blazers are down 0-2. Assume worst-case scenario that they both get swept, we have only two chances left to pick from them. So list down your top two remaining. For me, that would be Joe Johnson (average 27 PRA) and Nicolas Batum (25). So I should pick from these two only.

Now on the next not-so-worse case scenario that only 1 team gets swept and the other stretched to 5 games, then I would need a third person. My third best remaining is Deron Williams (25). This forces me to pick Johnson, so I can still pick either Batum or Williams on a Game 4 elimination game. So, Joe Johnson it is, regardless of performance.


If none of that happens, my next options for Games 5 to 7 are Paul Pierce, Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews, all of whom are just sub-20 PRA picks. Hope we don't get that low.

If you still have LaMarcus Aldridge or Damian Lillard, do yourself a favor and feast on their PRA in their home Game 3. And for some long-overdue payback.

60 comments:

  1. Below average from Joe Johnson for me last night but main rival picked DWill so I'm happy enough. Like you say scores are down across the board lately, 23, 24 and 20 last 3 nights.

    Thinking of changing away from Ariza tonight. I've used 2 Pacers and 1 Wizard, 1 OKC and 1 Clipper, so to keep things balanced maybe I should pick from the Western game. I don't know. Still undecided.

    As for tomorrow's pick, I'm happy enough in that I've used JJ and DW from Brooklyn, but still have Lillard, Aldridge and every other Blazer.

    Between LA and DL. Leaning towards Aldridge coz he is just a beast who will surely go 40+ after last night... But unsure, who would you go for?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The safe play is LA. I recommend you do that.

      My play if I have that availability is: pick DL now, and LA on an elim game. If I'm lucky that elim game is on Game 5 in San Antonio, "Texas".

      Delete
    2. Hahaha... Not sure I've ever come across this LA being a monster in Texas theory before! Sure he averaged about 50+ in Houston.

      You may have changed my mind!

      Delete
    3. Changed my mind for tonight... Going to back the Wizards and pick David West.

      Delete
  2. Nobody from Brooklyn has good PRA agains Miami. That's why I still don't take anybody from them. I'll wait and see how they'll play in home.

    So I take Batum, he played well in home agains Houston.

    And I don't take anybody from Wiz, because they'll win agains Indiana. Last loss was just a mistake.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Joe has been decent. Relatively among the Nets. He has to be picked in this series eventually anyway. Coz there's no next round.

      Delete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you wanna go cold, go Batum. If both teams get swept, you can still pick Deron Game4.

      If Portland goes Game5 as you are predicting, that's when you pick Lopez

      Delete
    2. Sorry i had to rewrite lol

      Delete
    3. besides Batum is not cold... he's owned by a higher percentage of people than Lopez or matthews..

      Delete
    4. True.... I will ponder your thoughts. :)

      Delete
    5. Ponder no longer, coz Batum is hottest pick on Monday Game 4 hehe

      Delete
    6. Batum will remain a hot pick until Portland is eliminated. 6% is as cold as Batum is going to get. 17% in Game 4, 18% in Game 5 and 16% in Game 6. Just to let you know.

      Delete
  4. lol(a sad laugh) This blog is so spot on.
    .
    My last four pics have been under a 22pra...
    .....
    Jamal Crawford 19
    Shaun Livingston 12
    George Hill 21
    and Paul Pierce 19
    ...
    Before Paul I had dropped to the 93 percentile :/
    ...
    I'm betting on the WAS and OKC to win their series....
    .....I've got Lance Stephenson, David West and Chris Paul, Blake Griffin.
    Three players would be the small # if both teams gets swept(I doubt will happen)
    .....So I'm sticking with my coldness and going with Blake Griffin.
    Looking forward to my fellow Sooner(yes I'm an Oklahoma fan too) go give me a very high PRA in a losing battle to my Thunder.

    (Probably ging to wait and use Lance Stephenson and David West for their home games)
    ..
    ..
    I do believe that MIA will sweep the NETS and POR might win just one game....
    ...
    These two series will probably lead me to spend three maybe four players....
    .....I've got Deron Williams, Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopes, Wesley Matthews, Kevin Garnett, and Andray Blatche.
    Yes I would play Matthews before I would play Garnett(sad)...
    .....Can't give you an answer on who I will play that night.
    .....Though keeping with the cold factor I would lean towards Lopez possibly Matthews.
    .....
    Thunder up !!!

    ReplyDelete
  5. I'm going Aldridge. Until Matthews/Batum get the full time job of guarding Parker (Lillard is doing a terrible job of it), Lillard will be distracted by his defensive duties and unable to contribute as much as he should offensively. That's actually why I chose Batum for game 2, figured he'd get more looks and was likely to be relegated to a more defensive role once Lillard showcases how bad a penetration defender he is. Worked for me yesterday, daily points leader on what was a very low-scoring day.

    So I'm waiting on Lillard, probably until the elimination game actually. Kid is clutch, we'll see what happens. This leaves LMA after a game where he really couldn't have shot any worse. Choice seems easy.

    Still not quite sure what I'm doing today. Getting more and more nervy with my picks as the games go on and I find myself still in the 95+ percentile. Was 96th percentile before the Batum pick, that's sure to rise today.

    Players picked so far:
    IND: George; Stephenson
    MIA: Nobody
    WSH: Nobody
    BKN: Williams

    SAS: Nobody
    OKC: Durant
    LAC: Paul
    POR: Batum

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pick a Wizard perhaps. Beal, Wall, Ariza. Even if they advance, you still have four 20+PRA Wizards

      Delete
    2. Aldridge is the best pick by a lot. I hoped he would dominate Game 2 but he really had an off game. This is what bounce back is made for. For those doubting bounce back, look at Batum game 1 vs. game 2. Don't fear picking a guy who struggled the last game, it often only lasts one game.

      You've now opened up a 50 point lead on me in our private league. I'm hoping that Damian Lillard is switched off defensive responsibilities in Game 3. He's my pick. I think he does better regardless. That leaves Batum for Game 4. I considered reversing the order and going Batum then Lillard, so we'll see how it plays out. That Batum pick in Game 2 was key. I'm just hoping I get lucky and Lillard and Batum keep pace in their respective games. Aldridge is going to be a beast for you. Even with my Aldridge struggles, I still jumped up to the 85th percentile. I'm rising with each passing day, but running low on star power soon.

      Delete
  6. These are my numbers comparing (last) and current season:

    Days 1st round: 16 (15)
    Score: 554 (477)
    Average score: 34.6 (31.8)
    Rank: 1192 (1945)
    %: 95 (90)

    I reached the 100% in round 2 and I finished 14th... And then I made an experiment: I took the high score possible each day without saving any player for any reason... and if I had picked in this way I'll have got 100 more points...
    This is why I don't worry about taking best players soon... and when I save anybody is in order to have picks avaiables in next rounds.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 32.5 ave round 1
      Around 33 point behind u

      Delete
    2. Where did you go to see your results from last year?

      Delete
    3. I wrote them down. I do it every year, so I can compare.

      Delete
  7. I took Stephenson in G1 and got 20 and West in G2 and got 17, If I had taken them in reverse I would have gotten 29 and 24. On the other days I took Lillard (24) and Aldridge (29), if those were reversed I'd have gotten (46) and (29) yeah Lillard tied Aldridge in G2 but I lost 17 from taking LA in the wrong game and 12 from doing the same with West. I only lost 4 with Stephenson and 5 with Lillard but since I was still getting weaker performances it all adds up to 38 lost PRA! That is A LOT! Need the Wizards to win though I still can't get over that 5/12 at the FTL. I'm taking DeAndre Jordan tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  8. What do you think about pg24 need had two terrible games in a row. I'm betting on wizards to win but I'm thinking of picking one wizard now so incase they lose tonight I won't be in too much trouble. You think beal is a good pick?

    667 pts
    97%
    716 rank

    This is the best I've ever done and I'm sure like maybe 300 ppl ahead of me have already picked all the superstars while I still have a lot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can't go wrong with a Beal pick

      Delete
    2. Hehe. I stuck with Ariza ;). I saw an update saying Paul George will guard Beal so I kept with Ariza. Looking for at least 30 PRA.

      Delete
  9. Luminosity, it would be better if you list the players you still have available from each teams that way we can see and analyze. I have a feeling that John Wall will perform well at home since he has been a disappointment on the road, but that's just a feeling. Going with a wizard is not a bad idea, because they have 5 guys that could give you 20+ PRAs at any given night. Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene and Gortat.

    A

    ReplyDelete
  10. J Crawford is my pick today, I was going to use him today anyway but him being named 6th man seems perfect timing. First Clipper I'm using and this game will probably give me an idea who'll win the series so then I can use the big 2-3 players from either team later.

    I've used most of the Pacers so can't choose them and I still believe Wizards will get through so I'm avoiding them unless they lose today then I'll have to start picking them.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Griffiiiin force tonight for me :)
    ....
    ............Got to get back up on that horse tonight

    ReplyDelete
  12. Pathetic Washington better pick it up. I can't have Indiana winning this series. I used way too many Pacers already and only have Stephenson and the dreaded Hibbert left from that team that will get over 5 PRA.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Daytona.... I just saw this posted in the nba planet group chat.... I'm in there... my handle is @topknox

      Delete
    2. Same here. But what's done is done. Have to pick Wall and Beal in succession now. Then pluck a Heat or two in Con Finals

      Delete
  13. PIcked Wall for today. Not looking good with the slow pace of the game. Ariza was great! It would be a shock if he puts up 30 especially when Paul George gets hot. I hope the Pacers win today.
    Still undecided with the OKC/LAC series but havent picked any of their players, so its still a good sign for me.

    Going with Lillard tomorrow. Rumors are stating that Mo Williams might miss Game 3 due to a groin injury which means that Earl Watson and Will Barton are going to rotate to give him rest. With Portland down 0-2, I don't expect Lillard to get a lot of rest anyway.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the Mo tip. Lillard should be a better pick than Aldridge coz of that.

      Delete
    2. I don't agree. Lillard only gets a few min of rest a night anyway. He can't possibly get any more minutes than he already does either with Mo Williams out. Guys like Will Barton who have been in for Williams the last 2 games will just take his spot in the rotation. Not a reason not to pick Aldridge. I have Aldridge and Lillard and I'm going with Aldridge tomorrow.

      Delete
    3. @jerry - the only reason that Lillard got 37 and 41 minutes in Games 1 and 2 is because coach Stotts is reluctant to rest his starters even when down 20. Imagine them having a close game tomorrow. A 42-44 minute night would be great. Plus, Barton can't handle the ball very well and Watson isn't capable of scoring

      Delete
  14. Wow Ariza is PRA leader tonight and has 20 so far. I mean this is one of the lowest scoring halfs

    ReplyDelete
  15. I'm one of the rate few who picked Indiana to win. Only Pacer I've used is Stephenson. Ariza tonight and he's really the only bright spot for WA so I can't complain

    ReplyDelete
  16. All those low PRA's in the first game will certainly help those of us who have a players in the second game.....
    .....
    Our turn :)
    ........................Thunder UP!!
    @topknox

    ReplyDelete
  17. I didn't even pick from that game and I am MAD! The Pacers are the worst #1 seed in NBA history and the Wizards make them look like a great team. 63 points, going 24/73 and losing by 22 on their home court! The scored <20 in every quarter and obviously did not win even 1 quarter much the game. Not only have the Wizards thrown home court away, they have thrown the series away and my DTTF season. If the Pacers were in the West they would not even win 2 games but in the east they (will) win 2 SERIES. What a disgraceful conference! Miami will sweep them but I will still have a tough time next round on the Eastern Conference days as I only have 2 legitimate Pacers left and so I will need to take like Chalmers and Allen and if that series isn't a sweep like it should be than there is no hope.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Have some water, man!
      There you go.

      Delete
    2. lol Taong..... (I feel yah aceee as I had predicted that WAS would win)

      Delete
    3. The Pacers really are a mess.

      Delete
    4. Thanks, doesn't say much of the BRICKINGTON BRICKARDS to lose by TWENTY-TWO to a MESS of a team! I still can't get over that this MESS is going to be playing in ROUND THREE. I like the Nets (not a big fan but still) and they are going to have gone 11 years without making that round so I envy ANY one who struggles yet is gifted multiple playoff series wins. Like I said before the Pacers would not win 2 GAMES in the West Playoffs against anyone. In fact there is a non playoff team (Phoenix Suns) that could handle the Pacers easily.

      Delete
  18. i wonder if i should go with deron williams for the home court bounceback game after his 0 point showing or batum at home court, especially since mo is out, he'll be handling the ball more. Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Batum.
      Batum is in upswing.
      DWill in downswing. Even if he bounces back, he'll just then start his upswing, so Game 4 may be better.

      Delete
    2. Man...Crawford has more pra than deandre right now..I really hope that changes

      Delete
  19. Batum or Lillard? This series looking like sweep. Both play well at home. Mo Williams is out I think. So both are in line for big games. My gut saying lillard. There's no way he can do bad 3 games in a row coming home. He's a superstar!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Batum imo save lillard for game four especially since it's probably going to be an elimination game

      Delete
    2. Batum plays great @home, so Game 3 or 4. Lillard is the safe play on Game 3

      Delete
  20. Sooooooooooooooo Happy....
    ..................Griffin got me a 46pra AND lost
    Wooooooooohooooooo
    ....
    ..................Thunder up!
    @topknox

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So far 44 from Paul, 53 from Durant and 46 from Griffin for me. This series has been loads of fun! Sad that I'm leaving it to pick a wizard for the next game :(. Although Bradley Beal should hopefully be worth it. This has been a PRA banaza!

      Delete
    2. That's good to hear for you my friend....
      ....I've had a bad 3 game run and needed this one....
      I believe I will be taking Chris Paul that day myself. My next best player for WAS is Bradley Beal then Ariza and Gortat... I was hoping for a WAS in BUT being I still have Lance Stephenson and David West for IND I could come out pretty good if it swings their way.. so I will stick with the LAC player and let that other series play out ....
      .....Tomorrow night I will go with Batum...

      Delete
  21. Aldridge for the bounce back game @ Portland or Williams thinking hed bounce back big from the 0pt performance? But then Aldridge upside is too big to ignore... around 30-40 pra for Aldridge vs high 20s for williams?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wish I had him for the bounce back game... I'm taking Batum tonight as I hear a lot of people are taking him in G4, hopefully he has a better G3 than G4 and I make up some ground.

      Delete